SOL's definitely be a portfolio killer for me. I sold some April puts a while back and now I'm torn between closing them out and recognizing the loss in 2012 (balances against TSLA profits taken this year) or hoping for even a partial recovery by April as my break even point is 3.90. Coin flip for me as I just can't get any feel for if they're going to stabilize or descend into oblivion. Information was hard to come by pre-earnings and reliable information even more so. I'm not sure what I can trust that I read at this point.
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Credit Suisse has been very bearish on solar all year. They have been wrong the whole time, but still not changing their story.
There are many risks to investing in solar, but China is not stupid enough to cap power plants at 4GW to try to get 8GW of distributed generation. From what I have been reading there is really nothing in place (in terms of laws, rules, guidelines, etc.) to install rooftop solar. China will not be able to install hardly any in the first half of 2014, and there is no way they are going to get to 8GW in 2014. The consensus is that if China really wants 12GW of solar then it will have to come mostly from power plants. And I see nothing wrong with that.
In any case 12GW of solar is not going to save China. They need to install 100's of GW's per year to make a difference. This is only the beginning of the solar story, there will be many ups and downs but the future is bright.
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I understand why you sold, all of that stuff makes sense. What I really meant to say in my previous post on this topic is that you should have never invested in solar to begin with:
Solar investing is not for everyone. I only recommend investing in solar if you have cash to spare (that you can afford to lose) and have a very long time frame. A lot of people trying to make a quick buck in solar are the ones who are losing money.
If you really want to invest in solar then you should be buying during times of weakness (like right now) and then buy more after another 10% or so decline. But you have to research to know which companies to invest in. There will be a handful of winners, and a bunch of losers. You really have to do a lot of research and then come up with a long term investment strategy and stick to it.
Muskol
Member
At this point I'm going to hold on to my SOL stock and see how the next quarter plays out. I'm tempted to sell what's left and apply the proceeds to some other names but I'm trying to keep calm and look at the longer term. Buy and hold, whenever I try and get creative it comes back to burn me even more.
I'm really hoping the poly plant write off is just a minor setback that will lead to more profitability down the road - short term pain for long term gain. Added some April/14 options as a crap shoot since it's been beaten down so badly.
Good luck all.
I'm really hoping the poly plant write off is just a minor setback that will lead to more profitability down the road - short term pain for long term gain. Added some April/14 options as a crap shoot since it's been beaten down so badly.
Good luck all.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Norse
Active Member
Damnit, I have mostly cash atm and planned to buy before Close but I forgot the time.
However I did not like the selloff at the Close, even tho I will probably og allin again tomorrow.
Upside great atm.
sub
Active Member
it's been a rough week or so, put some of my TSLA winnings into Solar so it's house money but ouches. I'm a long term believer in Solar so not that worried, but would prefer the bleeding stop sooner rather than later. I'm in CSIQ and SPWR. Luckily I bought back into TSLA in the 120's so that has eased the pain a little.
Here is the deal with solar:
Nothing has changed, absolutely nothing. The story is exactly the same as it was one or two months ago. The only difference is that now 2014 demand estimates have gone up to the 45GW - 50GW range, 3 Chinese companies are now profitable vs. 1 last quarter and 0 for the 8 quarters or so prior to Q2, 2013.
The sector is very volatile, especially the Chinese solar stocks. These companies go up a lot and then go down a lot. The reason for this is because these companies have very low market caps and are relatively thinly traded. Therefore the market makers can very easily manipulate these stocks. They make money on the way up and money on the way down, while the pigs get slaughtered. Buy and hold is the only weapon that you have against these guys. There is no way that you will outperform the buy and hold investor in Chinese solars if you try to trade in and out of these positions, when you consider long-term vs. short-term capital gains in the US.
That is the reason I recommend investing in SPWR as the best risk/reward play in the sector. It is a lot less volatile than Chinese solar companies. It has a much higher valuation, but rightfully so. It has a better balance sheet, better technology, years ahead in power plants and residential, etc. SPWR panels were designed for concentrated solar and I hope that they start taking advantage of this very shortly; it will do wonders for the income statement.
As far as Chinese solar companies there are now only four companies worth considering:
CSIQ and JKS. These are the two leaders and best of breed. I would recommend CSIQ as the safer play, because of their geographic diversification. JKS has potential for better returns than CSIQ, but they are mostly reliant on China currently and there is a lot more risk for more potential return. CSIQ is the Chinese/Canadian SPWR, albeit with worse technology, a little less power plant experience, and just starting in residential.
TSL and JASO. TSL is the third best company, but JASO has a lot better valuation and better balance sheet. I recommend researching these companies before investing. I like JASO more than TSL, because JASO has better balance sheet, under-utilization that will end in the next quarter or two at most. Both are cutting costs, but JASO's ASP's are going up vs. flat for TSL. JASO has better quality panels, TSL's are known for defects; JASO also has mono panels that are better for distributed generation. TSL on the other hand has better brand name and recognition, especially overseas. Both are expanding module capacity. Both stocks are very cheap right now IMO.
The rest that you might consider are SOL, YGE, and HSOL. These companies are struggling and are speculative investments. If the solar industry grows very fast then there is a small chance that all of these guys deliver 10-bagger returns in a few years. There is a good chance that some or all of these go bankrupt or wipe out shareholders. Not investment grade, but there is still a small chance for a huge return. I am staying away from now, especially since JASO has similar valuation to some of these guys and is a lot better company.
How to invest in solar:
Buy now when stocks are cheap. I actually think these stocks bottomed out today:
SPWR $28.55
CSIQ $26.94
JKS $26.08
JASO $8.60
TSL $11.57
Speculative plays that might go either way (you can add CSUN, DQ, LDK, and STP? to these):
SOL $2.99
HSOL $2.67
YGE $4.18
If you want to invest in solar then buy these stocks now that they are down 30% or so. Buy more next week if they go even lower, and then more next month if they continue going down. You have to have a long term investment horizon, otherwise don't bother because the market makers are preying on investors that get greedy on the way up. Here is a trend that I spotted on TMC:
I recommended SPWR at $18 in June here on TMC (you can go back to about page 30 or so of this thread to see how I was pimping SPWR) and maybe somebody bought, but most stayed on the sidelines. Then all of a sudden the stock went up 50% in a month and people started buying around $24 - $28. Then post Q2 ER the stock went down to $24 and later to $20, and these people sold for a loss (and the stock exploded to $35 just one or two months later).
Then in July I was pimping CSIQ at $11. People didn't start buying it until it hit $14-$15, before topping around $16 and then quickly falling down to $10.66 or so. A lot of people cashed out at a loss (while I was buying more); and the stock tripled just two months later.
Same thing happened in October, with a lot of people hopping on the solar momentum play close to the highs are now considering cutting there positions at a loss (or already have taken a loss).
There is no reason that you should be losing money in the solar industry. It is by far the best performing industry in 2013, and it will do very well in 2014 also. If you are trying to chase a quick buck in solar stocks then the market makers will eat your lunch.
That is also why I don't recommend buying options in solar. If you want to gamble on these then make sure you are ready to lose all of that money in a matter of days. Buy and hold is the best way to invest in solar.
You really need to have a long term investment horizon when investing in these stocks. The industry is only getting started, and there will be many bumps along the way. If you thought that Tesla has to deal with a lot of FUD and volatility then you haven't seen anything yet until you start investing in solar. It is not an investment for everyone.
Note on SCTY: I don't invest in the company, because it is too volatile and too expensive. It is very similar to TSLA in valuation, but with a lot less clear path than Tesla has to one day justify its valuation. It may turn out to be the best investment in solar, but I doubt it since you could buy every single US listed Chinese solar company with SCTY's market cap. I already have too much TSLA exposure so SCTY is not necessary for me (I have some deep ITM bull call spreads though, but not much at all).
Now is a great time to be buying solar stocks. There might be better times in the upcoming weeks, but you can't get too greedy on the downside either. If you are looking to get in, then don't wait too much longer. The trend will reverse very shortly and you will not see these bargains any time soon. These stocks might go a lot lower, but I don't see it happening. Unfortunately the market makers can manipulate these stocks however they want to, because of the small market caps. I think these are great bargains and the turn around will be swift and violent.
Buy and hold!
...or don't buy at all!
Nothing has changed, absolutely nothing. The story is exactly the same as it was one or two months ago. The only difference is that now 2014 demand estimates have gone up to the 45GW - 50GW range, 3 Chinese companies are now profitable vs. 1 last quarter and 0 for the 8 quarters or so prior to Q2, 2013.
The sector is very volatile, especially the Chinese solar stocks. These companies go up a lot and then go down a lot. The reason for this is because these companies have very low market caps and are relatively thinly traded. Therefore the market makers can very easily manipulate these stocks. They make money on the way up and money on the way down, while the pigs get slaughtered. Buy and hold is the only weapon that you have against these guys. There is no way that you will outperform the buy and hold investor in Chinese solars if you try to trade in and out of these positions, when you consider long-term vs. short-term capital gains in the US.
That is the reason I recommend investing in SPWR as the best risk/reward play in the sector. It is a lot less volatile than Chinese solar companies. It has a much higher valuation, but rightfully so. It has a better balance sheet, better technology, years ahead in power plants and residential, etc. SPWR panels were designed for concentrated solar and I hope that they start taking advantage of this very shortly; it will do wonders for the income statement.
As far as Chinese solar companies there are now only four companies worth considering:
CSIQ and JKS. These are the two leaders and best of breed. I would recommend CSIQ as the safer play, because of their geographic diversification. JKS has potential for better returns than CSIQ, but they are mostly reliant on China currently and there is a lot more risk for more potential return. CSIQ is the Chinese/Canadian SPWR, albeit with worse technology, a little less power plant experience, and just starting in residential.
TSL and JASO. TSL is the third best company, but JASO has a lot better valuation and better balance sheet. I recommend researching these companies before investing. I like JASO more than TSL, because JASO has better balance sheet, under-utilization that will end in the next quarter or two at most. Both are cutting costs, but JASO's ASP's are going up vs. flat for TSL. JASO has better quality panels, TSL's are known for defects; JASO also has mono panels that are better for distributed generation. TSL on the other hand has better brand name and recognition, especially overseas. Both are expanding module capacity. Both stocks are very cheap right now IMO.
The rest that you might consider are SOL, YGE, and HSOL. These companies are struggling and are speculative investments. If the solar industry grows very fast then there is a small chance that all of these guys deliver 10-bagger returns in a few years. There is a good chance that some or all of these go bankrupt or wipe out shareholders. Not investment grade, but there is still a small chance for a huge return. I am staying away from now, especially since JASO has similar valuation to some of these guys and is a lot better company.
How to invest in solar:
Buy now when stocks are cheap. I actually think these stocks bottomed out today:
SPWR $28.55
CSIQ $26.94
JKS $26.08
JASO $8.60
TSL $11.57
Speculative plays that might go either way (you can add CSUN, DQ, LDK, and STP? to these):
SOL $2.99
HSOL $2.67
YGE $4.18
If you want to invest in solar then buy these stocks now that they are down 30% or so. Buy more next week if they go even lower, and then more next month if they continue going down. You have to have a long term investment horizon, otherwise don't bother because the market makers are preying on investors that get greedy on the way up. Here is a trend that I spotted on TMC:
I recommended SPWR at $18 in June here on TMC (you can go back to about page 30 or so of this thread to see how I was pimping SPWR) and maybe somebody bought, but most stayed on the sidelines. Then all of a sudden the stock went up 50% in a month and people started buying around $24 - $28. Then post Q2 ER the stock went down to $24 and later to $20, and these people sold for a loss (and the stock exploded to $35 just one or two months later).
Then in July I was pimping CSIQ at $11. People didn't start buying it until it hit $14-$15, before topping around $16 and then quickly falling down to $10.66 or so. A lot of people cashed out at a loss (while I was buying more); and the stock tripled just two months later.
Same thing happened in October, with a lot of people hopping on the solar momentum play close to the highs are now considering cutting there positions at a loss (or already have taken a loss).
There is no reason that you should be losing money in the solar industry. It is by far the best performing industry in 2013, and it will do very well in 2014 also. If you are trying to chase a quick buck in solar stocks then the market makers will eat your lunch.
That is also why I don't recommend buying options in solar. If you want to gamble on these then make sure you are ready to lose all of that money in a matter of days. Buy and hold is the best way to invest in solar.
You really need to have a long term investment horizon when investing in these stocks. The industry is only getting started, and there will be many bumps along the way. If you thought that Tesla has to deal with a lot of FUD and volatility then you haven't seen anything yet until you start investing in solar. It is not an investment for everyone.
Note on SCTY: I don't invest in the company, because it is too volatile and too expensive. It is very similar to TSLA in valuation, but with a lot less clear path than Tesla has to one day justify its valuation. It may turn out to be the best investment in solar, but I doubt it since you could buy every single US listed Chinese solar company with SCTY's market cap. I already have too much TSLA exposure so SCTY is not necessary for me (I have some deep ITM bull call spreads though, but not much at all).
Now is a great time to be buying solar stocks. There might be better times in the upcoming weeks, but you can't get too greedy on the downside either. If you are looking to get in, then don't wait too much longer. The trend will reverse very shortly and you will not see these bargains any time soon. These stocks might go a lot lower, but I don't see it happening. Unfortunately the market makers can manipulate these stocks however they want to, because of the small market caps. I think these are great bargains and the turn around will be swift and violent.
Buy and hold!
...or don't buy at all!
After a great year in 2013 overall I have diversified among various Techs with my gains. Expecting a double + for 2014. Will keep following Solar and will get back in if and when I feel a warm and cozy of a turn around. SPWR and FSLR got badly beat up today as well. Be careful out there with your hard earned $ and have a plan.
Excellent round-up Sleepy- thanks very much-
Bought SPWR and CSIQ in the very low 20s on my research coupled with your recommendations. Couldn't agree more on the buy and hold- I only do stock and LEAPS (split between J15 and J16 expirations). I do have a full share of SCTY as well (same stock LEAPS split) as I think they provide a nice balance on the other two. Agree they are highly valued, so i keep the strikes pulled in some. Thanks for sharing your research and best thoughts- couldn't be more helpful!
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Sounds like a familiar plan... I'm currently running equal parts APPL, TSLA, Solar(SCTY+SPWR+CSIQ) and all stock and LEAPS. I agree, looking at a about a double in 2014 on the LEAPS leverage as the market cools some next year, but moves to more growth stocks
Bought SPWR and CSIQ in the very low 20s on my research coupled with your recommendations. Couldn't agree more on the buy and hold- I only do stock and LEAPS (split between J15 and J16 expirations). I do have a full share of SCTY as well (same stock LEAPS split) as I think they provide a nice balance on the other two. Agree they are highly valued, so i keep the strikes pulled in some. Thanks for sharing your research and best thoughts- couldn't be more helpful!
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Sounds like a familiar plan... I'm currently running equal parts APPL, TSLA, Solar(SCTY+SPWR+CSIQ) and all stock and LEAPS. I agree, looking at a about a double in 2014 on the LEAPS leverage as the market cools some next year, but moves to more growth stocks
Good words. It made more sense to hedge by diversification to protect 2013 gains. The time to get back into Solar may be anywhere between now till beginning part of the year before the US Solars begin to announce ER. I am still eyeing CSIQ, JKS, and now also SPWR.
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An Article from one of the Solar Sites I follow:
US to Surpass Germany in Solar in 2013; 930 MW Installed in Q3 : Greentech Media
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Damn Sleepy....if this Solar bounce holds up, that is a scary bottom call. Many positive articles out today - Deutsche rebutting Credit Suisse on China solar, CSIQ upgraded to outperform on Zacks, JKS gets panels certified for rooftop in Japan. It's like someone hit the reverse FUD button.
I'm 50% Tesla, 30% CSIQ, 20% JKS and 10% SPWR in my fun money portfolios...here's to a good end of the year and an amazing 2014.
Thanks everyone.
Cheers
I'm 50% Tesla, 30% CSIQ, 20% JKS and 10% SPWR in my fun money portfolios...here's to a good end of the year and an amazing 2014.
Thanks everyone.
Cheers
InTheShadows
Active Member
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)
Bummer my csiq June order didn't get filled this am. Shoulda went .10 higher.
It'd be nice to blast through 28.60 resistance.
Bummer my csiq June order didn't get filled this am. Shoulda went .10 higher.
It'd be nice to blast through 28.60 resistance.
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Yes after staying up late last night researching and then reading a bunch of analyst calls and price action this a.m. on volume I jumped back in. Late for work, but worth it.
BTW I've been "hedging" heavily on YHOO when the chips are trending down on other hot sectors. It is a great stock to fall back on (so far) and has had steady neutral to upside since Marissa Meyer took over and it's large exposure to Alibaba.. May want to research.
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That's why I always say not to get too greedy on the way down either. I guess you put in a limit order at $26.00. I would not recommend using round numbers in the future. If CSIQ falls below $26, then most likely it will go a lot lower. If $26 were to hold (which it did today) then the stock usually ends up bouncing just above the round number (in this case at $26.10) and will not fill your order. In the future set limits at $26.15 or so to be safe. I never us round numbers, since too many poeple do it. If everyone puts in a limit order at $26.00 then market makers see this and they can start buying at $26.01 or higher because they know that there is a floor at $26.00.
I on the other hand fired up my computer and bought CSIQ at full ask pre-market at $26.80. I don't mess around with scalping pennies, because you end up losing dollars (like today). Yesterday I tried scalping a penny when selling a stock, and it didn't get filled. The stock then closed down $0.40 below the price I could have gotten had I not been so greedy.
I also bought some TSL pre-market with a "generous" bid at $11.63. This one was in between bid/ask, but I felt that it had a good chance of getting filled since that was still 0.5% above yesterday's closing price.
I feel like market orders are usually the best way to buy stocks if you are sitting in front of a monitor all day.
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