The growth rate for 2014 is going to be higher than 2013 for Solar, so the stocks could perform similar to or better than 2013, however I will be happy with a 2 to 3 bagger this year for the average solar stock.
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The growth rate for 2014 is going to be higher than 2013 for Solar, so the stocks could perform similar to or better than 2013, however I will be happy with a 2 to 3 bagger this year for the average solar stock.
That Reuters article says:
My broker sent me the article this morning, dated 01/04/2014 04:28 AM EST. But the day before, all the Chinese solar stocks went up except JASO and LDK, which went down.
My questions:
1) Was the market reacting to the Chinese website or to the Reuters article about it? (Was the article sent to the big boys a day before us retail suckers got it?)
2) Did the Chinese website say JASO is teetering on bankruptcy, or is that a Reuters addition? (The former seems unlikely.)
3) Is it true that JASO is teetering on bankruptcy? Sleepy, have you seen new evidence to change your mind?
Good points! Very intrested to hear what sleepy and the other pros think about this, especially your question number 3
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
The only way #3 could be true would be illegal accounting reporting. We have access to financials and you can see they are not going bankrupt:
http://investors.jasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=208005&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1880102&highlight=
There is no way to put this politely, but the author of this article is either clueless, an idiot, or purposely misleading people. Either way I would fire him, because he is really bad at his job. How can you write for Reuters and not even fact check what you write? Now business insider used that exact same sentence in its article ( not sure that if they are related to Reuters)
JASO has by far the best balance sheet out of all Chinese solar companies (CSIQ included) and is the main reason I invest in them.
I have read a while ago an article by some big news outlet (Reuters, Bloomberg, or someone similar) that lumped JASO together with LDK and YGE as companies with huge debt loads.
The media is clueless and this is probably a good reason why JASO has been lagging in 2013. This is also great news because I have been loading up on JASO at a discount thanks to this FUD. Once the truth comes out, I am going to make a lot of money.
I think JASO presents the best risk/reward in the Chinese solar industry right now. Least risk for sure, but still has potential to outperform everyone.
Look at the balance sheets of the companies and it is clear that JASO's is the best. Only takes 10 minutes.
JASO has by far the best balance sheet out of all Chinese solar companies (CSIQ included) and is the main reason I invest in them.
I have read a while ago an article by some big news outlet (Reuters, Bloomberg, or someone similar) that lumped JASO together with LDK and YGE as companies with huge debt loads.
The media is clueless and this is probably a good reason why JASO has been lagging in 2013. This is also great news because I have been loading up on JASO at a discount thanks to this FUD. Once the truth comes out, I am going to make a lot of money.
I think JASO presents the best risk/reward in the Chinese solar industry right now. Least risk for sure, but still has potential to outperform everyone.
Look at the balance sheets of the companies and it is clear that JASO's is the best. Only takes 10 minutes.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
With SOL having gone back up I have reached breakeven on it in my retirement account. I think I'm going to be dumping SOL and buying more JASO this week.
Do any of you guys have any credible 2014 EPS growth data on the Chinese Solars? I have seen 250% +/- for JKS in articles but various financial sites I have checked doesn't match this claim or is simply blank for EPS growth. I know it's going to be high for solars in general this year, but any good data would be great.
As far as JASO is concerned, I am principally staying away from any Chinese company that is not profitable at the moment. With Chinese companies, particularly Solar I don't have the confidence (of going in big) as there can be negative surprises. If I miss out on some gains, so be it. I can always buy once they are in the black.
As far as JASO is concerned, I am principally staying away from any Chinese company that is not profitable at the moment. With Chinese companies, particularly Solar I don't have the confidence (of going in big) as there can be negative surprises. If I miss out on some gains, so be it. I can always buy once they are in the black.
It is really hard to tell but CSIQ and JKS in the $4-$6 EPS range and JASO and TSL $1-$3 range seem like very reasonable targets as of today. JASO is the biggest unknown of those 4 and it is possible that I am too optimistic, but I am sticking to my predictions and placing bets accordingly.
Everyone else is a crap shoot.
Remember that by mid 2014 we will be looking at 2015 EPS estimates. If everything goes as planned, those could be rather huge. Then again, there could be a rush to build out capacity, poly shortage, or other risk that could cause the stock prices to plummet. You really have to spend an inordinate amount of time researching this industry if you do not want to be left holding the bag. Investing in solar is not for everyone.
CSIQ CEO talks about his company and solar.
Success Does Not Impress Qu Xiaohua, chairman and CEO of Canadian Solar - SolarPVInvestor
February Solar Investment Summit in San Diego, Canadian Solar is one of the sponsors:
Solar Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 | An Infocast Deal Working Event
Success Does Not Impress Qu Xiaohua, chairman and CEO of Canadian Solar - SolarPVInvestor
February Solar Investment Summit in San Diego, Canadian Solar is one of the sponsors:
Solar Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 | An Infocast Deal Working Event
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Norse
Active Member
If you read the full article you will see he is talking about China in that last quote. He even adds China will learn from the US.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Yea i was thinking about that too, i doubled down when it went below 3 as I thought it was just undervalued no matter how unreliable management etc is. I am now thinking about exiting this position as they are by far the biggest uncertainty within my portfolio. Maybe try to hit the high of the day and swing the money over to JASO or something else... what do you guys recommend?
Norse
Active Member
I so not have time to post all the news here aswell so here is link to them all: News and Price Targets | Page 4 | The Contrarian Investor Discussion Board
Big day and analysts are starting again.
Big day and analysts are starting again.
Muskol
Member
ReneSola Panels Power 420MW Solar Project in Japan -- SHANGHAI, Jan. 6, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
Looks like up ~10% pre-market.
Muskol
Member
Contemplating the same as you guys.
Might dump my April/14 options and keep my stock with a tight stop loss order in case it keeps running.
Don't like using stop losses, but I am a little overweight in SOL as I added when they dropped.
Gtoffo
Member
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