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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
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Clprenz
Member
From the amount of risk JASO presents I have opened a $9 straddle. I like CSIQ alot but the premiums on the options are crazy glad I picked up some a while ago but sad I can't get more...
I rest my case:
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20140107&id=17230869
CORRECTED-China pledges further support for solar industry
(Removes reference to JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd in eighth paragraph)
borat99
Member
I think it would have been better if they had crossed out that JA reference instead of removing it so people could still see what was mentioned before correction. Oh well...
Anyway, let's see if JASO will break $10.30 today. I think CSIQ may break $40 later if good news comes out of the fed meeting.
Here is the original story from Reuters corrected:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/07/china-solar-idUSL3N0KE03Y20140107
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/07/china-solar-idUSL3N0KE03Y20140107
I don't like Barrons 99% of the time, but Deutsche syays long term investors will get into Solar this year.
China Solar: Long-Term Investors Will Participate This Year, Says Deutsche - Emerging Markets Daily - Barrons.com
I also read about the Chinese support news a few days ago and increased my CSIQ and JKS positions and bought YGE and now have 85% weighting in Solar till first half of 2014.
China Solar: Long-Term Investors Will Participate This Year, Says Deutsche - Emerging Markets Daily - Barrons.com
I also read about the Chinese support news a few days ago and increased my CSIQ and JKS positions and bought YGE and now have 85% weighting in Solar till first half of 2014.
Now I know why RSOL is up +13% today.
Mercury Solar Systems, Inc. Shareholders Vote in Favor of Real Goods Solar Merger[/h]Company Expects a Strong 2014 for Commercial Projects
Mercury Solar Systems, Inc. Shareholders Vote in Favor of Real Goods Solar Merger[/h]
Company Expects a Strong 2014 for Commercial Projects
By Mercury Solar Systems, Inc.
Published: Thursday, Jan. 9, 2014 - 6:24 am
PORT CHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 9, 2014 -- PORT CHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 9, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Mercury Solar Systems, Inc. (the "Company"), one of the top solar integrators on the East Coast, today announced that its shareholders voted in favor of its merger with a subsidiary of Real Goods Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: RSOL), a nationwide leader of turnkey solar energy solutions for residential, commercial, and utility customers. Real Goods Solar will hold a Special Meeting of its Stockholders on January 14, 2014 at 10:00 a.m. (GMT), at the offices of Real Goods Solar, 833 West South Boulder Road, Louisville, Colorado to approve the merger.
http://www.sacbee.com/2014/01/09/6058679/mercury-solar-systems-inc-shareholders.html
SCTY about the only thing in green for me today:
they are cranking in residential market- up to a third of that market now
SolarCitys Market Share Jumps to 32% in US Residential PV : Greentech Media
they are cranking in residential market- up to a third of that market now
SolarCitys Market Share Jumps to 32% in US Residential PV : Greentech Media
Expected some profit taking after the tremendous run-up of past week. Chinese solars got hit hard today in typical style, most of em at anyway. I got some more KNDI today, I think it will be a good year for them. What do you guys think of Norse's predictions of Solar prices on his investment site?
forum.thecontrarianinvestor.com
forum.thecontrarianinvestor.com
Convert2013 - you are welcome to join us and we would be glad to have you. I see that you posted here that you have ~80% of your portfolio in solar and have been doing a lot of research. I would hate for you to have to go at it alone with that much exposure to solar in your portfolio. Norse lives in Norway and has all of the news stories posted in the morning when we wake up in the western hemisphere. It is really convenient. I think that we could learn a lot from each other.
Maybe a good buying opportunity, but maybe it isn't. I think that I will be buying TSL in the low $15's next week or maybe even high $14's.
Currently I am loading up on shares of JASO in my retirement accounts. I am happy with my 1 month CSIQ, JKS, and TSL gains and am going to gamble on JASO going forward. I am ready to hold for a long time though if I think that the market is being irrational. I will only take a loss if something fundamentally changes in my investment thesis, such as a $200m poly plant write-off :wink:
But I still think that the solar sector may pullback another 5%-10% over the next few days/weeks unless we get a big catalyst. We had good news all around and a sell-off. This is the first sign of a rally losing steam. If we have another weak trading day with such good news then it might be a short term top. Of course a big positive catalyst, such as solarbuzz coming out with official figure for Q4 at 12GW could spark the next leg of the rally.
Right now I think that the odds favor the bears at least until options expiration happens next Friday. I am in a lot of cash and bought some protective puts. Still 80% invested, but not my usual 100%, a good chunk of puts to hedge just in case.
Every day brings new news stories and you never know what could happen next. But my base case is always to assume no material news either positive or negative, and if this happens to be the case then I think the pullback will continue for a very short period of time.
I would start nibbling after a 15% pullback from highs and then more at 20%, 25%, etc. JASO is a lot less volatile, therefore I am buying JASO at 5% and 10%, etc. pullbacks.
I could be wrong and maybe CSIQ hits $45 by next week, but I don't see it happening. I have been wrong plenty before on solar, it really is hard to time these trades so take everything I say with a huge grain of salt.
Thanks for the details. Yes I have noticed that Norse has been diligent in posting news very regularly on that site. Latest being that Nomura upgraded CSIQ price target to $55. I will join that site soon and start contributing. I have been following about 10 solar sites for news daily due to the large exposure I have in Solar, but it's a risk I'm willing to take as I think the risk/reward for solar, especially for the profitable ones seems to be good for the first half at least, if not the whole year. But looking at prior year charts I am on top of it in case there is a fundamental shift.
On KNDI, it is purely speculative for now. Knowing that it has support from the Chinese govt is a plus, and could bring them decent revenue in the future.
Norse
Active Member
Agreed Norse early posts are valuable. Thx very much
Also got to say I appreciate Sleep balancing by giving his short views (extremely difficult in this market) even though he is basically a long term bull. That's a tough line to walk and the sharing of thoughts is really appreciated Sleepy - right or wrong, thx for your thoughts
Also got to say I appreciate Sleep balancing by giving his short views (extremely difficult in this market) even though he is basically a long term bull. That's a tough line to walk and the sharing of thoughts is really appreciated Sleepy - right or wrong, thx for your thoughts
First article is good in some ways. Second article not so good... oversupply returning.
China Decides Which Solar Companies Live or Die : Greentech Media
SolarIndustryMag.com: Oversupply Returning To Polysilicon Market
China Decides Which Solar Companies Live or Die : Greentech Media
SolarIndustryMag.com: Oversupply Returning To Polysilicon Market
Norse
Active Member
First article is very important.
Second article is very good. That means poly is cheap. We want oversupply in poly!
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