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#3,321
Theshadows said:
I grabbed two march lottery tickets for jaso. $12 and $13 strikes for .15 and .10 respectively.
Click to expand...
The ER is on Monday apparently (first time I've seen it listed in my Google Finance calendar), so who knows. I've got June $9 calls I bought for $2 back in January. Hopefully they'll do something good. I think the last articles I found said they were capacity constrained and it wasn't going to be until in the 2nd quarter when new production capacity came online in South Africa (reading their announcement in JASO's investor section). Consequently, I'm not sure I'm expecting any big revenue surprise for Q1.

Sleepy, of course, probably knows 10x the detail :)
 
#3,322
Theshadows said:
If the force is with me, they will end up being leaps ;)
Click to expand...

I have both April $11 and Jan 2015 $15s. Looks like we've been working off the same crib sheet. Also have a bunch of shares. Regardless of the market headwinds, I expect JASO to execute better than HSOL, which did well...but JASO is more mature and has greater upside. Monday should be fun, more fun if this dip gets bought like all the others for the last 18 months. Remember, the fear in January was emerging markets and Turkey.....Turkey? Really? The most hated rally in the history of the market will end sometime, but this isn't 2000-2002 or 2008.
 
#3,323
Bgarret said:
I have both April $11 and Jan 2015 $15s. Looks like we've been working off the same crib sheet. Also have a bunch of shares. Regardless of the market headwinds, I expect JASO to execute better than HSOL, which did well...but JASO is more mature and has greater upside. Monday should be fun, more fun if this dip gets bought like all the others for the last 18 months. Remember, the fear in January was emerging markets and Turkey.....Turkey? Really? The most hated rally in the history of the market will end sometime, but this isn't 2000-2002 or 2008.
Click to expand...

Hopefully it is a "sell the rumor, buy the news" (on Monday) type of deal.
 
#3,331
No way was I closing anything jaso related. I want full exposure to this ER. If it goes bad, well the good news is I'll have two tax reducing days in a row. I'm expecting jaso to recover all I lost on tsla weeklies today. My intrinsic value only spreadsheet says I need 12.32 to break even.
 
#3,332
Theshadows said:
No way was I closing anything jaso related. I want full exposure to this ER. If it goes bad, well the good news is I'll have two tax reducing days in a row. I'm expecting jaso to recover all I lost on tsla weeklies today. My intrinsic value only spreadsheet says I need 12.32 to break even.
Click to expand...

For my portfolio to go back to where it was 10 days ago I think JASO needs to hit at least $25:biggrin:.....................But I will gladly take 12.32
 
#3,333
Theshadows said:
No way was I closing anything jaso related. I want full exposure to this ER. If it goes bad, well the good news is I'll have two tax reducing days in a row. I'm expecting jaso to recover all I lost on tsla weeklies today. My intrinsic value only spreadsheet says I need 12.32 to break even.
Click to expand...

I did not take any profits either. I was actually increasing my (already super high) JASO exposure every day this week. I used my J16 TSLA LEAPS as my ATM by selling some calls against them to raise cash.

I am very optimistic on JASO's long term prospects, but don't know what will happen on Monday. I think that they will have a great ER and give really good guidance for 2014.

The only thing that worries me is that short interest (which was already high to begin with) doubled over the past 4 weeks. I am wondering if someone knows something; there is still a remote possibility that JASO is responsible for the Wacker Euro115m windfall from backing out of a supply agreement. Normally, I wouldn't think this but JASO is a customer of Wacker and the short interest has grown alarmingly quickly.

Even if they do take an impairment, the market might shrug it off if ER is really great, or it will create a huge buying opportunity if the stock goes down and everything else in the ER is good/great. In SOL's case, that $200m impairment really hurt them badly and their balance sheet has deteriorated in a hurry. JASO could easily absorb such an impairment without any problems. It would be a drag on them but not that big and will be easily forgotten a couple of months from now.

Good luck everyone. No matter what happens on Monday, I still like JASO a lot over the long term; unless of course there is some huge negative surprise that will have a lasting impact on the fundamentals of the company (something a lot more significant than a potential impairment).
 
#3,334
If the geopolitics (referendum) involving Ukraine, Crimea and Russia works out in a positive way and JASO has even a decent ER/guidance it will rock Monday. If it does not, I think we will have a very muted JASO response short term. I have a crap load (very scientific measure) of JASO even with selling off 25% at close today that includes stock, March/April calls and LEAPS so I am hoping for good news. Good luck all.
 
#3,335
sleepyhead said:
The only thing that worries me is that short interest (which was already high to begin with) doubled over the past 4 weeks. I am wondering if someone knows something; there is still a remote possibility that JASO is responsible for the Wacker Euro115m windfall from backing out of a supply agreement.
Click to expand...
Yep, this rise in short has me a bit paranoid. I got bit hard on SOL's hidden stuff and it'd suck to have that happen twice in a row. Everything JASO has published looks like they're on solid footing going into the rest of 2014 though.
 
#3,336
ckessel said:
Yep, this rise in short has me a bit paranoid. I got bit hard on SOL's hidden stuff and it'd suck to have that happen twice in a row. Everything JASO has published looks like they're on solid footing going into the rest of 2014 though.
Click to expand...

JASO has always been a long term play for me. You never know when the day comes that JASO turns the corner.

It might be Monday or it may be in a few months. I thought JASO was due 3 months ago and it is taking longer than expected.

You never know when the time will come, but it eventually comes for undervalued companies - sooner or later.
 
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