Yea. Sadly, any other week over the last couple months and I would have made money with the exact same trades (relative to stock price). One of the only times I've played JASO for a weekly and it picks this week to be atypical. Salt in the wound...the minute, literally, I went to unwind my 11s the stock plummeted here in the last 15 minutes.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
I bought to close a JASO covered call for $11 position at a profit, so I'm happy with that. At the end of the day, some of my day long orders ended up getting executed as prices dropped. Got JASO April 19 calls for $12 at $0.45. I had bought some at $0.65 yesterday expecting that the market makers would decide that $11.95 was the ticket rather than $11.05. The downward pressure on JASO was pretty significant this morning, and then again going to close.
SolarCity has an updated investor presentation deck on their website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...4-4259533d473e/SCTY_Investor_Presentation.pdf
Here are some of the key slides.
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...4-4259533d473e/SCTY_Investor_Presentation.pdf
Here are some of the key slides.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I'd also be curious what others think is behind this large drop. JASO -6.6%, CSIQ -6.4%, etc. Where is sleepyhead when you need him?Whats up with all the Solars today? Just after I buy everything tanks
Whats up with all the Solars today? Just after I buy everything tanks
It's not just today- Solars have been slammed for many days now- you're catching a falling knife currently. Although the charts are looking close to oversold now- very similar to TSLA. Been a risk off the high flyer in general
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Well, just before the close I bought some April 19 JASO calls at 12 strike, as a short term speculative bet. I think this selling spree is ridiculous.
I was a bit more conservative with some $10 Jun-21's, but I agree with your sentiments on the selloff.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'll channel sleepy here, which also mirrors my own solar philosophy: Buy and hold, and buy more on the dips.
I'm tapped out unfortunately, spending what I had on more JASO when it seemed to hit the crazy low price of 11 after the ER...
JASO has dropped about 30% from the ER high just over $13, but most solars have been brutalized over the same time period. If I had more money, I'd buy.
I'd also be curious what others think is behind this large drop. JASO -6.6%, CSIQ -6.4%, etc. Where is sleepyhead when you need him?
You know we did start a website where we discuss solar and other disruptive technologies...
Nothing has changed in the fundamental story for the solar sector and I think that it is going to be the hottest sector over the next 5 years, with plenty of volatility in between. This is shaping up to be a historic once in a lifetime buying opportunity if the economy holds up and we don't go into a recession (I don't think we will over the next 12 months at least); the problem is knowing when we hit bottom. I think JASO is very close, since it is sitting at the bottom of the bollinger bands and very near its 200 day SMA.
ALL OF YOU GUYS BUYING OPTIONS IN SOLAR ARE DOING IT WRONG!!! The IV is huge, the bid/ask spreads are extremely wide, and the market makers can unbelievably easily move the stocks towards max pain every month that you are going to have an extremely hard time just breaking even.
There is plenty of reward to be had with plain vanilla shares. I really do not recommend buying options in solar stocks because you are going to get burned more often than not. I would recommend options only for those who are experts in options and spend 20+ hours per week researching the solar sector; even then you will still probably lose money.
Buy shares and hold. Now is a great time to buy. But please stop buying options in solar!
I've had fairly good luck getting orders filled for quite a bit closer to the bid than the ask.
I'm buying options fairly well ITM though, basically paying about 10 or 15 cents in time premium per share. They're all underwater now, but if the stock gets back to 13 by June, I'll be doing quite well. The Nov->Dec drop was bad, but it recovered in about 3 months so I figure the odds are decent again this time.
The IV on long term options is very high, however, short term options appear very attractive, so long as you ALWAYS use limit orders. The bid/ask spread only matters if you place a market order as opposed to a limit order. If you buy short term options at strategic times, such as when the short term options exhibit a clear bearish bias, it can sometimes be a good way to average down, without having to expose yourself to too much risk.
InTheShadows
Active Member
The iv on long term itm options doesn't look too bad to me. That's what I have been buying, although some of them are at or slightly out of the money now.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Now that you've mentioned it, I'm assuming it's The Contrarian Investor? (On edit: nevermind, I just noticed now it's in your signature.) I visited only once in the past, and then I forgot about it. I'll bookmark it.
I did say it was a speculative bet. It is also very small. Under these parameters, and after a continuous slide in JASO after good earnings and guidance for no discernible reason other than general market malaise, I figured it was a worthy bet.
I don't have shares, but I have some Jan 15 calls. We'll see how those turn out.
But generally speaking, I'll keep your warning in mind.
Last edited:
LEAPS are okay as long as you know when to cash out or roll them into J17's. E.g. you can buy an ATM JASO LEAP today and watch the stock go to $30 and then we can hit a recession in 2015 and the stock falls back to single digits and you lose all the money on the Jan 16.
I wish you the best of luck, but we were in a 1.5 year straight line bull market. Now with the turmoil it can be different; hard to tell what the future will hold.
$13 by June is a 200% annualized return when the market averages less than 10%. This is exactly my point about buying short term options: "If I can get my stock to do 200% then my options will do just fine..."
Similar threads
- Locked
