AP tried to crash my car TWICE this week!

[electronblue]

Maybe we are talking about the same thing that Autopilot is not advanced enough and it does fail at times.

I agree this probably got stuck at semantics long ago.

It is of course true the driver is responsible in driving Autopilot according to instructions as well as overall operating it safely. This includes the responsibility for catching Autopilot’s mistakes.

 

[1375mlm]

USER ERROR...it's clearly stated.

Okay I clearly didn’t make it obvious I was being sarcastic
I think there’s a disconnect between peoples expectations and the reality of AP. Despite clear warnings, many people (new owners especially) have false expectations due to others calling it “leading edge” and “innovative”, which it is but it’s the best technology, not all the way there yet.
For example, my brother seriously thought AP was self driving. I was joking around falling asleep at the wheel, and he couldn’t figure out what was wrong with that.
His response: “if the car gets confused, it’ll just pull over. What’s the big deal?”
Although I can see OP’s gripe with AP not working, it’s part of having the newest technology.
When you have the newest tech, you have the newest advancements and the newest shortcomings. If you don’t like it, a Tesla probably may not be for you yet.

 

[Tam]

You've actually never done that have you?

No. Computer is not my specialty. I don't know how to write programs. I just read some articles on the internet and make some assumptions on how Tesla works.

...I expect it w/i 18 months...

The puzzling part about Full Self Driving is: If it's a just few and not many years away, why Tesla stopped selling it on the website?

 

[electronblue]

The puzzling part about Full Self Driving is: If it's a just few and not many years away, why Tesla stopped selling it on the website?

That decision may be unrelated to Tesla’s software proress and be more related to their hardware progress. Tesla now probably knows how much HW3 will cost them and that they need it to develop FSD features further so limiting its pre-sales limits retrofitting costs and logistics afterwards as every AP2+ FSD car needs a retrofit could make sense... similar reasons probably caused the FSD price increases last summer.

Of course it is probably also true that the FSD sales gimmick started in 2016 has done its thing already and probably became more a hindrance than help as their progress in public has stagnated. When it hinders more than helps, it was time to let it go.

It may be related to their internal software development reality too, sure, but I can see other reasons playing there as well.

 

[wcorey]

The puzzling part about Full Self Driving is: If it's a just few and not many years away, why Tesla stopped selling it on the website?

They didn't stop selling it. They took it off the order page, presumably temporarily. They did the same thing with other options. You can order it via a call to local SC sales. Further, starting January for those who have purchased FSD they will get free upgrades to the V3 chip. EAP is deemed to run just fine on the NVidia chip.

 

[bayx]

Given that AP has still ways to go, FSD is likely many years away. We may likely see Waymo's tech, which even Elon said is ahead in this game, in cars before Tesla FSD. Waymo received approval from CA DMV few weeks ago to test cars without any human inside!

 

[electronblue]

They didn't stop selling it. They took it off the order page, presumably temporarily

True but removing it from the order page does in reality decrease its sales significantly. There is probably some logic to it and it is a legitimate question why they did this. Taking it from the order page might also allow silently killing the option at some point as Tesla has done to some products over time. (Not saying that that will happen, just looking back at the history.)

starting January for those who have purchased FSD they will get free upgrades to the V3 chip. EAP is deemed to run just fine on the NVidia chip.

I doubt anything will start in January. In theory new cars might ship with it though January sounds early for that too... retrofits? It might take a long while before those are available. P100D retrofits sold to P90D cars on order weren’t delivered until a year+ later from P100D availability for example.

 

[wcorey]

True but removing it from the order page does in reality decrease its sales significantly. There is probably some logic to it and it is a legitimate question why they did this. Taking it from the order page might also allow silently killing the option at some point as Tesla has done to some products over time. (Not saying that that will happen, just looking back at the history.)

I suspect too many whiners were complaining they paid for something that did not exist. Musk did say it was to avoid 'confusion'. I tend to take Elon Musk at his word. Might he be a tad optimistic? Sure but not by years, I still have not received 2018.44 yet it's out, as is 2018.48. But I know they are out.

 

[electronblue]

Musk did say it was to avoid 'confusion'. I tend to take Elon Musk at his word.

Yep. I don’t take him at his word so my interpretation is that there is probably more to it than just mere confusion. A simple reason would be to lessen retrofit obligations now that Model 3 sales are ramping up at such a pace given how swamped the service network already is.

Might he be a tad optimistic? Sure but not by years, I still have not received 2018.44 yet it's out, as is 2018.48. But I know they are out.

Software updates are one thing. Hardware retrofits are another. As I said the very similar prepaid P100D update to P90D cars took a year to arrive from P100D availability. Now I’m not necessarily saying years for HW3 retrofits but several months from HW3 launch is realistic, more is possible, after all it is a significant cash and logistics outlay for Tesla too.

 

[wcorey]

I doubt anything will start in January. In theory new cars might ship with it though January sounds early for that too... retrofits? It might take a long while before those are available. P100D retrofits sold to P90D cars on order weren’t delivered until a year+ later from P100D availability for example.

Again, I tend to trust Elon Musk's statements. Might January turn into June? Sure. I suspect the universe of people who prepurchased FSD is very small but for those who paid for it in early 2018 I expect them to be scheduled into the SC or Mobile Service (Yes, it can be field installed) before someone who picked up their car in Nov, although I reserved in Sept 17 and configured June 18. FWIW Ben Sullins doesn't think it will be out for another decade. His mind's eye is a tesla with now steering wheel. Sure, that may be 5 yrs. My prediction is premised on you still need to be alert and you own whatever happens, driver is responsible. They are in test right now and we've seen two different vids on it. Further, since I am prognosticating I suspect this Spring we'll have software than reads yellow/red lights, exit speed signs (orange) as well as posted speed signs (white), stop signs, yield signs. When those come out FSD will be close behind.

 

[wcorey]

Software updates are one thing. Hardware retrofits are another.

30 mins. can be done by Mobile Service.

 

[Cycle11111]

Both these instances look like more like surface streets and and as previously pointed out do not fit the recommendation for AP. I use AP a lot but never in situations like these.

 

[wcorey]

Yep. I don’t take him at his word so my interpretation is that there is probably more to it than just mere confusion. A simple reason would be to lessen retrofit obligations now that Model 3 sales are ramping up at such a pace given how swamped the service network already is.

Now that is an interesting justification, yeah, I can see that POV. But they dropped it from the configure page, when, late Sept, early Oct? But, again, it's a field upgrade. Sure, still shop / mobile tech time. I'll still hold to w/i 18 months and odds are 2019. That's for 'beta'. It'll be beta until Congress or individual states approve autonomous. I believe Congress took that mantle to determine with autonomous would be allowed BIG money wants it ASAP, UPS, FedEx, Taxi Companies, Uber, Lyft. GM, Tesla. They will be major lobbying for it.

 

[electronblue]

30 mins. can be done by Mobile Service.

I don’t doubt that. What I doubt is how fast the HW3 retrofit will be available.

I would love to be wrong and for it to be available immediately upon HW3 launch.

 

[wcorey]

What I doubt is how fast the HW3 retrofit will be available.

Would you elaborate? If you are referring to V3 being factory installed, that surely would be the gold standard for when it's deemed 'shippable'.
Sorry, I misread...I thought you said how long not how fast (soon).

 

[electronblue]

Would you elaborate? If you are referring to V3 being factory installed, that surely would be the gold standard for when it's deemed 'shippable'.
Sorry, I misread...I thought you said how long not how fast (soon).

Two things of course one is when will HW3 be factory shippable. I do not know but Q1 next year is possible. First half next year sounds even likely... In 2019 very likely... So that is one thing. It will happen quick when they are ready for sure... for new cars made at the factory.

Second thing is when this computer will be retrofittable to old cars. That is not necessarily at the same time as it appears in new cars. As I mentioned the P100D upgrades sold in 2016 for P90D cars took a year or so to appear as retrofits from the start of factory manufacturing.

How long will the delay be from factory HW3 to retrofits of HW3 is the biggest question mark for me. It is a significant logistical hurdle and a cash outlay for Tesla to complete. It might be in their interest to delay it to whatever time they deem most suitable.

 

[wcorey]

Ah...that's what you meant by retrofit. I didn't catch that as I assumed you assumed it wasn't plug compatible, which it is. I suspect non-2.5 cars will never see it as it'll require the 8 camera and 12 sensors. This dovetails nicely into another food for thought. Just as with Software Defined Radios, companies that produce them sell one product and ship a lot of software. Tesla will need to ship product. Those model years that don't easily support V3 likely the owners will have to purchase up.I'm retired now, FSD means a lot more to me than someone who bought the car for novelty or are young enough to want to drive an instant torque vehicle 'drive hard and put up wet'.

 

[electronblue]

Ah...that's what you meant by retrofit. I didn't catch that as I assumed you assumed it wasn't plug compatible, which it is. I suspect non-2.5 cars will never see it as it'll require the 8 camera and 12 sensors.

I still think you misunderstand. I am talking about AP2/2.5 cars with FSD option purchased — when will they see the retrofit from Tesla for the HW3 computer. I do not expect those retrofits to start immediately as new HW3 cars starts rolling from the factory.

Even if it is plug compatible or only requires a simple harness adapter or similar — as I expect it will be — Tesla will still have to manufacture those parts for retrofitting and make them available through their service network. This is where I see the potential for delay.

So two questions:
1. When will HW3 cars roll out from Fremont?
2. When will existing AP2/2.5 cars with FSD option purchased get retrofits for HW3 computer from Tesla?

My expectation is there could be a delay between 1. and 2. In the case of P100D and P90D cars with pre-purchased retrofits this delay was around one year.