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SpaceX's load includes its own product, and ISS. I'd like to see a breakdown.
Yes, of course SpaceX is primarily launching its own payloads to orbit but that does not diminish the magnitude of the accomplishment.
In a few years when Starship is operational the same chart will show a far more extreme difference between SpaceX and everyone else.
In a few years when Starship is operational the same chart will show a far more extreme difference between SpaceX and everyone else.
Yes, but if it's all Starlink, what's the point? They might as well call the company Starlink, and refer to the launch business as part of their vertical integration strategy. We want to see Moon colonies, LEO hotels, asteroid mining and the like. SpaceX is building the launcher, but will the payloads come? Or will the company forever operate as the outlet for Elon's pet projects and various government contracts?
I think those things will happen (except the asteroid mining). But given Elon’s wealth and his ability to attract investors, his “pet projects” along with Starlink revenue seem capable of propelling SpaceX forward for the next several decades.
For now, Starlink revenue is “the point”.
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Good questions... but it's interesting that, unlike certain billionaires who have started rocket companies and have thus far only joyrides to show for the $$billions they've personally funded, Elon has found a way to fund his rocket development profitably, even if it meant starting another company to do it... he in essences gets his rocket goal accomplishments paid for other than by writing a personal check.A nd once that is accomplished, he then has a rocket capable of his next goal.
And given those goals... even if it does remain as a company largely just to fufill Elon's dreams... those are grandiose enough to make what's on his docket dwarf most other nation-states' ambitions....
I don't really think it matters where he became aware of the information... the fact that the conclusions he draws about the ESA's recent accomplishments in light of their stance a decade ago are much the same lends credence that folks familiar with space gongs-on don't necessarily think it's a nothingburger.
The problem is that the push will only last during Elon's lifetime. Inertia will carry it a bit farther, but unless another megabillionaire wants to fund the whole thing for idealistic reasons, it's going to falter and fail. We need economic reasons to go to space. We need stuff that we can only manufacture at scale off-planet. We need stuff that we can only collect in volume off-planet. We need a reason for the commoner to want spaceflight.
The one thing that Elon is providing while he lives is the opportunity for somebody to find something that can be manufactured or collected off planet. Without Starship, I suspect nobody would even bother because it's so speculative. We need people to try lots of different things off planet until we find something that is the Killer App for spaceflight.
Ben W
Chess Grandmaster (Supervised)
Fortunately, Starship (if proven viable) will make it about 100x easier to find an economic reason to go to space, for anyone trying to do so in Elon's footsteps. And it seems like the inertia is already there to see Starship through to success; I wouldn't have confidently said this even a year ago. I am also curious about the economics of a scaled-down Starship, still with full reusability, but with Falcon-9-like payload capacity. (Or a scaled-up Starship, for that matter. Is there any economy-of-scale advantage to a 12m or 18m diameter instead of 9m?)
Probably not without a major materials breakthrough.
I suspect harmonic vibrations would be a big problem in a yet more rotund ship.
The more you lift the more fuel required but that adds more weight at takeoff. You only get so much thrust from burning stuff with liquid oxygen. The thing has to support it's own weight on the launch pad as well.
Solid fuels with their own oxidizer have limits too.
I don't know what the innovations were to Starship. Good luck surpassing them.
Yeah, I suspect like many frontier crossings, once the initial pilgramage is made, and the way paved and the manner cross it viable/feasible, there it will be become self sustaining, although as @JB47394 points out, that takes finding thr "killer app"... it's defintely not a done deal, there's a LOT of work to do, but the first trip is the hardest and the way is at least within sight....
Absolutely. Starship presents the opportunity. The only real difference between @scaesare and me is that he seems to assume that a reason will be found while I make no such assumption. The Moon and Mars are like McMurdo Station 1956, not Jamestown 1605. McMurdo is not self-sustaining. In fact, the few attempts at creating a self-sustaining enclosed arcology on Earth have failed.
Yes, I've been wondering about that as well. But I also wonder about ridesharing a bunch of 5 ton satellites on a single Starship launch, using orbital tugs to move them into their proper orbits.
If Starship pans out, then I suspect SpaceX will tune the entire process for the most efficient way to get materials to LEO - the real purpose of Starship. Beyond that, they can create new vehicles for other purposes. For example, they don't need 4mm thick stainless steel bullet-shaped vehicles with 6 or 9 Raptor engines to travel between LEO and the Moon. Mars also doesn't need anything that robust.
And what will happen once we have working humanoid robots? Will they replace people in space? Operating in harsh environments would seem to be an ideal use for Optimus. They would dramatically reduce the requirements for missions. Pack as many Optimus robots as your mass budget allows, and make sure they have spare parts and power.
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