Hi all - I am an investor in the automotive industry and conducting some research to understand more about Tesla's FSD beta program. I am looking for any FSD beta user in San Francisco / Bay area who is willing to share their experience with me over lunch (my treat). In exchange, I am happy to share my research findings across ADAS / robotaxis / self-driving trucks.
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Attn: San Francisco - FSD Beta drivers
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Tam
Well-Known Member
L3 is already commercially available for consumers: Honda in Japan and Mercedes EQS in Germany (awaiting USA L3 sales permit).
Beyond L3 for consumers is still an uncertainty.
China Zeekr and Xpeng can work as an L4 (their competing Tesla FSD beta versions), but they only sell them to consumers as L2.
Commercial L4 testings work pretty well as in Waymo and Cruise in the sense of zero fatalities.
Recent Cruise robotaxi autonomously created a swarm and blocked the traffic is a good reminder about robots:
A Swarm of Self-Driving Cruise Taxis Blocked San Francisco Traffic for Hours
A number of Cruise-branded self-driving robotaxis were stuck at an intersection for "hours," forcing Cruise employees to manually intervene.
www.thedrive.com
Even with advanced AI, machines still need human skills to get them out of trouble.
Intelligence is complex, so it might be many years or decades before the machine can attain the skill of human intelligence.
To simplify the environment and scenarios for the machine, with less intelligence requirement, a predictable unchangeable commercial route could be a reality: Truck depots, Waymo Robtaxi in the prepared geofence...
When talking about the Tesla FSD beta program, there's no hope that it will ever advance to L3 until Tesla can guarantee to take responsibility for L3 accidents.
Tesla FSD beta still can collide. It wouldn't take Dan Odowd's challenge to pass his kid-size mannequin collision test. Thus, thinking that Tesla will ever advance to L3 without additional sensors and a better software team is wishful.
Is Tesla still suitable for an investor even when it can't advance beyond L2?
Forbes magazine seems to say yes!
Analysis of the price-hike for FSD, and the options it allows Tesla
Most should have seen that Tesla is bumping the FSD pre-order price to $15K. This is odd with a product which isn't there yet, and has a resale price of around $3K to $4K in the used market, with a declining global take rate now at 7%. I explore these price factors, and also consider the...
teslamotorsclub.com
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L3 is already commercially available for consumers: Honda in Japan and Mercedes EQS in Germany (awaiting USA L3 permit sales).
Beyond L3 for consumers is still an uncertainty.
China Zeekr and Xpeng can work as an L4 (their competing Tesla FSD beta versions), but they only sell them to consumers as L2.
Commercial L4 testings work pretty well as in Waymo and Cruise in the sense of zero fatalities.
Recent Cruise robotaxi autonomously created a swarm and blocked the traffic is a good reminder about robots:
A Swarm of Self-Driving Cruise Taxis Blocked San Francisco Traffic for Hours
A number of Cruise-branded self-driving robotaxis were stuck at an intersection for "hours," forcing Cruise employees to manually intervene.
Even with advanced AI, machines still need human skills to get them out of trouble.
Intelligence is complex, so it might be many years or decades before the machine can attain the skill of human intelligence.
To simplify the environment and scenarios for the machine, with less intelligence requirement, a predictable unchangeable commercial route could be a reality: Truck depots, Waymo Robtaxi in the prepared geofence...
When talking about the Tesla FSD beta program, there's no hope that it will ever advance to L3 until Tesla can guarantee to take responsibility for L3 accidents.
Tesla FSD beta still can collide. It wouldn't take Dan Odowd's challenge to pass his kid-size mannequin collision test. Thus, thinking that Tesla will ever advance to L3 without additional sensors and a better software team is wishful.
Is Tesla still suitable for an investor even when it can't advance beyond L2?
Forbes magazine seems to say yes!
Analysis of the price-hike for FSD, and the options it allows Tesla
Most should have seen that Tesla is bumping the FSD pre-order price to $15K. This is odd with a product which isn't there yet, and has a resale price of around $3K to $4K in the used market, with a declining global take rate now at 7%. I explore these price factors, and also consider the...
You win the award for most non sequitur post ever.
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Tam
Well-Known Member
How's the research going?
The Tesla FSD Beta is still progressing very well as evidenced by the price increase to $15,000 as of 9/5/2022.
Below is an example of how an accident was averted. The system can recognize obstacles beautifully as shown on its instrument cluster. It can render the white pylons into traffic orange cones extremely well. The instrument cluster shows those obstacles are there to redirect the traffic to merge to the next lane on the right.
Notice that its path depictor (teal line projecting from the front of the car icon) is planning to plow through those cones.
Tesla has planned well as this beta program still has a backup driver while waiting for the mass production of robotaxi.
With good planning, there's no collision recorded in this case either.
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