Avoiding end of year hell

[drj3]

It would be hard to argue that the end of the 3rd quarter was hard on Tesla’s employees and customers. I can imagine things could be even worse in December. On top of the usual end of quarter rush, Tesla will be faced with the holiday season and the possibility of more weather related transportation delays. It will be hard enough to get Tesla employees to work extra around Christmas, and nearly impossible to get shipping partners to put in extra time. Delays that push delivery into January could cost customers $3500. To avoid a disaster that could do even more harm to Tesla’s reputation here is what I think they should do.

1. Give new orders delivery time frames of Jan-March. Better to under promise and surprise someone with an early delivery if they can.
2. Work like mad to deliver all existing orders by December 1. Consider it a practice run for the real end of quarter.
3. Sell any extra production in December as inventory vehicles wherever they can transport them. Hold “delivery events” like they did in California all over the country, but make them open to anyone who wants a car. No reservation required. These events themselves may generate more demand. Especially with the tax credit about to expire.

 

[LM-5]

4. Set proper guidance with Wall Street on the upcoming earnings call so that they’re not backed into a corner of having to deliver an impossible number of cars in Q4 to meet expectations

Much of Tesla’s pain is self-inflicted from setting bad expectations and then having to resort to heroics to try and meet them.

 

[suwaneedad]

I take some solace that year end will not be as zany, from the fact that producing 5k/wk was Herculean at the end of June, and was fairly routine by the end of September. In short, Tesla proved in the factory that high volumes normalized in roughly three months. So hopefully we'll see that occur throughout Q4 in the delivery processes as well.

 

[Canikony]

1. Give new orders delivery time frames of Jan-March. Better to under promise and surprise someone with an early delivery if they can.

They need to be more accurate with deliveries. Last month they contacted many people to bump up their delivery dates only to leave them with no car after all.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Especially with the tax credit about to expire.

Just a reminder to all who don't know the details, but the tax credit does not expire at the end of the year. It will decrease from $7500 to $3750.

 

[ebmcs03]

Just a reminder to all who don't know the details, but the tax credit does not expire at the end of the year. It will decrease from $7500 to $3750.

That’s just as bad as expiring to me. $3,750 is a lot of money to a ordinary barely middle class citizen.

 

[LM-5]

That’s just as bad as expiring to me. $3,750 is a lot of money to a ordinary barely middle class citizen.

My guess is that Tesla will attempt to time it so that the SR Model 3 is available for order around that time to attempt to stem the tide of pricing friction that will come with the reductions in tax credits available.

It doesn’t help you if you already have your heart set on a higher spec’d model, but the math will work out for a lot of budget-conscious buyers.

 

[TJtv]

. Delays that push delivery into January could cost customers $3500.

It's not $3500, it's a $3750 problem.

 

[notAnExpert]

That’s just as bad as expiring to me. $3,750 is a lot of money to a ordinary barely middle class citizen.

There is a proposal in California to increase the current $2,500 rebate to $4,500 in 2019. If that happens, the real difference for CA buyers will be only $1,750.

I have no idea how real the CA rebate increase is. I just read a news report about it last week. I think they were supposed to have a hearing this week.

 

[ebmcs03]

There is a proposal in California to increase the current $2,500 rebate to $4,500 in 2019. If that happens, the real difference for CA buyers will be only $1,750.

I have no idea how real the CA rebate increase is. I just read a news report about it last week. I think they were supposed to have a hearing this week.

Wow! That would be awesome! Time to keep buying electric!

Edit: Unable to find anything that references that.

 

[notAnExpert]

Wow! That would be awesome! Time to keep buying electric!

Edit: Unable to find anything that references that.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[beachbum77]

It would be hard to argue that the end of the 3rd quarter was hard on Tesla’s employees and customers. I can imagine things could be even worse in December. On top of the usual end of quarter rush, Tesla will be faced with the holiday season and the possibility of more weather related transportation delays. It will be hard enough to get Tesla employees to work extra around Christmas, and nearly impossible to get shipping partners to put in extra time. Delays that push delivery into January could cost customers $3500. To avoid a disaster that could do even more harm to Tesla’s reputation here is what I think they should do.

1. Give new orders delivery time frames of Jan-March. Better to under promise and surprise someone with an early delivery if they can.
2. Work like mad to deliver all existing orders by December 1. Consider it a practice run for the real end of quarter.
3. Sell any extra production in December as inventory vehicles wherever they can transport them. Hold “delivery events” like they did in California all over the country, but make them open to anyone who wants a car. No reservation required. These events themselves may generate more demand. Especially with the tax credit about to expire.

I think they should attempt to fill all orders for the U.S. by December 15 with a configuration cutoff of November 15. Orders after that get no guarantee of 2018 delivery.

After December 15 send all production to Europe. For the last two weeks of the year sell only from "inventory" in the U.S. This would allow Tesla to actually give the employees and customers the day off on Christmas.

We also know the odds of this happening are... zero. lol