Blue Origin: Future Plans

[ecarfan]

I disagree with Bezos’s fundamental thesis; that humanity has traded technological advancement for environmental harm and that can only be remedied by humanity colonizing space on a vast scale, which would give a trillion spacefaring people access to more and more energy and that can only be a positive development.

Current technology could be used to repair the environmental degradation we see all around us while at the same time providing everyone on Earth with enough energy and resources for them to live comfortable and productive lives though that would be more likely to occur if the human population was a fraction of what it is today.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I disagree with Bezos’s fundamental thesis; that humanity has traded technological advancement for environmental harm and that can only be remedied by humanity colonizing space on a vast scale, which would give a trillion spacefaring people access to more and more energy and that can only be a positive development.

Current technology could be used to repair the environmental degradation we see all around us while at the same time providing everyone on Earth with enough energy and resources for them to live comfortable and productive lives though that would be more likely to occur if the human population was a fraction of what it is today.

The way we are going, we are definitely going to be fraction of the population we are today. 200 years from now, it’ll be less than a billion people. The earth will recover. It’s recovered from far worse ice ages before, many times over. Our fossil fuel burning age will end up being a tiny blip in Earth’s history.

Bezos’ future is possible I guess in a fully robotiziced work force future. I just don’t have the imagination to see the attraction for it.

 

[scaesare]

Here's Eric Berger's version of the highpoints.

Jeff Bezos says what we’re all thinking: “Blue Origin needs to be much faster”

"We're going to become the world's most decisive company across any industry."

arstechnica.com

I'm glad that somebody these days still knows what a high road is.

Does anyone else wonder if New Glenn will become obsolete the moment that Starship puts its first commercial payload into orbit? Or will Elon Musk's 'popularity' encourage companies to choose New Glenn where they can and only use Starship as an alternative?

It was good to see him taking the high road with regard to Musk, and to be a bit introspective about B.O.... but quotes like this annoy me:

"We're going to become the world's most decisive company across any industry," he said. "We're going to get really good at taking appropriate technology risks, making those decisions quickly. You know, being bold on those things. And having the right culture that supports that. You need people to be ambitious, technically ambitious. If there are five ways to do something, we'll study them, but let's go through them very quickly and make a decision. We can always change our mind."

When you've spent 20+ years NOT being the most decisive company in your OWN industry, much less ALL others, all of the sudden declaring you will be the best, and then simply parroting what has been said about how your very decisive competitor has been operating, smacks of me-too-ism.

Maybe say "We want to get better..." or "our goal is to improve xxx", but deciding you've already won the race when trailing, makes Jeffrey again sound like he's got "2nd place syndrome"

 

[ecarfan]

The way we are going, we are definitely going to be fraction of the population we are today. 200 years from now, it’ll be less than a billion people.

It seems likely that the global human population will start to decline in a few decades, but after that it is not possible to reliably predict what will happen; too many variables.

The earth will recover. It’s recovered from far worse ice ages before, many times over. Our fossil fuel burning age will end up being a tiny blip in Earth’s history.

Of course. Whatever people do, the planet will persist. But the biosphere and climate that modern human civilization depends on is definitely at risk in this century. That’s what matters to me, not what condition the planet is in 100,000 years from now.

Bezos’ future is possible I guess in a fully robotiziced work force future.

His version of the future — giant rotating O’Neill cylinders in space housing tens of thousands of people for their entire lives — requires the invention of multiple technologies that we are nowhere near achieving in this century or the next, in my opinion. So can his enterprise continue to progress long after his death? Because that is what will be required. The history of humanity says “nope”.

Elon’s version of the future, while certainly exceedingly difficult to achieve, appears to be faintly possible. It will also need to continue to make progress long after his demise, but in my opinion has a greater probability of success and is grounded in current scientific knowledge.

With Starship, Elon is laying the necessary foundation for moving massive amounts of payload to Mars.

With Blue Origin, Bezos is doing…almost nothing to achieve his goal. Yes, at some point in the future he could have a vehicle comparable to Starship, but he is at least a decade behind SpaceX, and his track record to date does not inspire confidence.

 

[ecarfan]

When you've spent 20+ years NOT being the most decisive company in your OWN industry, much less ALL others, all of the sudden declaring you will be the best, and then simply parroting what has been said about how your very decisive competitor has been operating

Agreed, that is Bezos being willfully blind to reality, and inadvertently hilarious.

Bezos: "We're going to become the world's most decisive company across any industry," he said.

And people criticize Elon for making grandiose statements and setting unrealistic timelines and objectives.

On the other hand, kudos to Jeff for being able to pick a shirt that shows off his biceps.

 

[JB47394]

Maybe say "We want to get better..." or "our goal is to improve xxx", but deciding you've already won the race when trailing, makes Jeffrey again sound like he's got "2nd place syndrome"

Ah, but he didn't pull a Mary Barra and declare that they are the most decisive company. He said that they're going to be. That's their stated goal now. Not that I know what it means to be a decisive company. Were they being indecisive? Was that the reason for 20 years of minimal results?

As I see it, the problem is that Jeff wants that organization moving, but Bob Smith was approaching it all like he was back at Honeywell. At a guess, he tried doing things the Honeywell way, but faster - which doesn't seem to have done anything but aggravate the employees. That would be the classic mistake that Elon would never allow. He'd make sure that the organization was designed from scratch for the exact goals he had in mind. That's why Jeff has David Limp in there; its a guy he worked with extensively at Amazon, and they're undoubtedly on the same page. The question is whether Jeff can just tell someone to make Blue Origin work when he won't do the job himself. He seems to have switched over to "emperor" mode, where he just directs things and doesn't have a specific job anymore.

 

[scaesare]

Ah, but he didn't pull a Mary Barra and declare that they are the most decisive company. He said that they're going to be. That's their stated goal now. Not that I know what it means to be a decisive company. Were they being indecisive? Was that the reason for 20 years of minimal results?

As I see it, the problem is that Jeff wants that organization moving, but Bob Smith was approaching it all like he was back at Honeywell. At a guess, he tried doing things the Honeywell way, but faster - which doesn't seem to have done anything but aggravate the employees. That would be the classic mistake that Elon would never allow. He'd make sure that the organization was designed from scratch for the exact goals he had in mind. That's why Jeff has David Limp in there; its a guy he worked with extensively at Amazon, and they're undoubtedly on the same page. The question is whether Jeff can just tell someone to make Blue Origin work when he won't do the job himself. He seems to have switched over to "emperor" mode, where he just directs things and doesn't have a specific job anymore.

Yeah I get aspirational goals. But categorical statements like that from somebody who's failed to do that thus far ring hollow... and irritate me.

I'd much rather humble and understated. I loved Elon's goal:

 

[JB47394]

But categorical statements like that from somebody who's failed to do that thus far ring hollow... and irritate me.

I'd say that he's earned the right to say what he likes given his accomplishments to date. Perhaps you're just jaded as a result of so many decades of hearing the US Government pronounce new eras for NASA - only to see each cancelled in turn. If nothing comes of the new effort under David Limp, then I'll join you if he tries to declare yet another new era for Blue Origin.

 

[scaesare]

I'd say that he's earned the right to say what he likes given his accomplishments to date. Perhaps you're just jaded as a result of so many decades of hearing the US Government pronounce new eras for NASA - only to see each cancelled in turn. If nothing comes of the new effort under David Limp, then I'll join you if he tries to declare yet another new era for Blue Origin.

Jaded... maybe lol.

Or perhaps more of a realist when it comes to folks proclaiming they have the next great product, will do the next best thing, will lead the next great initiative, etc...

 

[ecarfan]

Drawing from a post by @Grendal, here is the current SpaceX v. BO scorecard:

SpaceX over 21 years
280 Falcon 9 launches (10 with humans)
8 Falcon heavy launches
260 Consecutive successful launches (Since Amos-6 pad failure)
253 Successful landings
179 Consecutive successful landings since last failure (Starlink Group 1-19)
219 Booster reuses (F9 & FH)
Better than 93% launches with booster reuse for the last 3 years.

BO over 23 years
0 launches to orbit
22 suborbital launches (6 with humans)

Bezos, December 2023: “We have to go faster”.

Yep.

 

[ecarfan]

280 Falcon 9 launches (10 with humans)

I should have written that: 10 with humans to orbit in the SpaceX designed and built Crew Dragon.

When will BO put humans in LEO using their own capsule? Not in the foreseeable future as far as I can tell. The BO/Sierra Space “Orbital Reef” space station project plans to use the Boeing Starliner and Dream Chaser vehicles for human transport. And it seems that the best case is that New Glenn is 2-3 years away from being human-rated.

 

[JB47394]

I should have written that: 10 with humans to orbit in the SpaceX designed and built Crew Dragon.

Then you would need to put in 6 with humans on suborbital trips in the Blue Origin designed and built New Shepard capsule.

If you wanted to contrast Dragon and New Shepard, you'd want to talk about man-days on orbit, or life support duration or some such thing. Criteria for which New Shepard would post a goose egg. If you wanted to favor New Shepard, talk about square meters of glass. That capsule is great for the views.

When will BO put humans in LEO using their own capsule?

Ideally, never. They should launch whatever capsules already exist (including Dragon, if they're smart and humble enough), and hope that this is the last generation of the things. I'm sure we all hope that the future lies with Starship-class vehicles. They are massively-capable vehicles (by comparison) that can move huge payloads around because of the ease with which they'll be able to put propellant on orbit. I hope that New Armstrong will adopt the same general pattern as Starship, where the second stage is a reusable spacecraft with its own significant delta-v.

 

[ecarfan]

I hope that New Armstrong will adopt the same general pattern as Starship, where the second stage is a reusable spacecraft with its own significant delta-v.

Agreed and I have some confidence that we will see such a BO vehicle in about…10 years.

 

[JB47394]

Jeff is adding to his cash position, and has plans to sell roughly $8.4 billion in Amazon stock in the next 22 months (including this $2 billion chunk, I believe). The media is assuming that it is owned stock, so it will be taxed as capital gains (20%) giving him about $6.7 billion after taxes (depending on his cost basis and the price of AMZN at the time of sale).

https://www.npr.org/2024/02/11/1230650932/jeff-bezos-sells-nearly-12-million-amazon-shares-worth-at-least-2-billion