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Blue Origin: Future Plans

Discussion in 'SpaceX' started by Grendal, Sep 13, 2017.

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  1. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Blue Origin's future rocket, the New Glenn:


    Here is a picture showcasing the size compared to other notable rockets:
    Blue Origin's Future Plans.jpg

    Blue Origin recently tweeted that they are dropping the smaller fairing version and moving forward larger fairing version.
     
  2. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    So where are they at in Development?
     
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  3. malcolm

    malcolm Active Member

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    They seem to be at step 2:

    1.Collect underpants
    2.Build big rocket
    3.Profit
     
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  4. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Well, that is indeed a BFR. But I'm not sure if even Bezos has the money to fund it all himself. Still, I admire his willingness to spend a ton of cash on Blue Origin and I hope the company is successful.

    Launching the first New Glenn "before the end of this decade" seems optimistic, but there is nothing wrong with optimism!
     
  5. ccutrer

    ccutrer Active Member

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    Man I'm having deja vu watching that video. But, if they can do it, all the better. Good luck to them!
     
  6. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    I swear I saw this video - Musk productions - just two weeks ago.
     
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  7. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    #7 Grendal, Sep 13, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
    Both the video and the comparative picture are old. The only thing new was the tweet from BO about the fairing.

    Blue Origin works very different from SpaceX. They do not share information much and if something is put out it is usually through a tweet from Bezos.

    The BE-4 methane engine from BO is what ULA will use to power the Vulcan. The Vulcan is the replacement to the Atlas V since that uses the Russian RD-180. The last we heard is that there was an incident with the turbopump during testing. The BE-4 is really the heart and soul of where BO is going with their rocket, the New Glenn. Once that engine is working well then they can start on the rocket airframe. So I'd say they are about the same level of development as SpaceX is with the mBFR. They are testing the engine and have a rocket design on paper and maybe testing some of the components to be used in the rocket.

    More details about the BE-4 engine is here:
    Blue Origin - BE-4 Methalox Engine

    More details on BO's history and what they have achieved is here:
    Blue Origin lands a rocket stage

    We'll see in a couple weeks, but I'll bet the new mBFR will be more similar in size to the New Glenn than anything else.
     
  8. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    Is the market for a mBFR or New Glenn payload that big?
     
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  9. ICUDoc

    ICUDoc Member

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    I guess the payload capacity is different, but my word that video is like a joke- it's basically an animation of Spacex missions. Which, by the way Jeff, are real...
     
  10. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Not yet. The thing about orbital launches is the chicken and the egg problem. There isn't a payload market for super heavy launch vehicles because there haven't been any super heavy launch vehicles. SpaceX is about to build one and the moment Elon announces it in a couple weeks then I would bet that a number of commercial customers will sign up. I just posted a congressional video that implies what the government would like to be doing in the future. A super heavy launch vehicle would probably fit very nicely into those future plans. New Glenn, even though it looks really big, doesn't have that large a payload capacity. It is focused on reusability and not on payload capacity.
     
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  11. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    It looks like their future plans include government launches. Historically Bezos and BO said that they wouldn't go for those types of launches but would leave them for ULA. Which makes sense since ULA may be buying their rocket engine from BO to power the new Vulcan rocket. So we'll have to see where this leads.

    Blue Origin shows interest in national security launches - SpaceNews.com
     
  12. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    Let them first do ONE successful sub orbital launch and then ONE to LEO.
     
  13. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    I think they're going to have a problem with cost relative to the BFR since they aren't reusing the second stage and the BFR has 3 times the lift capacity. Of course that depends a lot on how reusable the BFR winds up being and the cost of refurbishment, but SpaceX has a lot more experience with that than BO, or anyone else.
     
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  14. SwTslaGrl

    SwTslaGrl Member

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  15. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    I assume ULA will get one of the two slots, so it's likely going to be a competition between SpaceX and Blue Origin.

    Let the lobbying begin!
     
  16. Mo City

    Mo City Member

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    Based on Amazon's market cap and Bezos' long term commitment to ensure BO's success, he does have enough money and is willing to spend it.
     
  17. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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  18. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, interesting article. I don’t doubt that BO is going to succeed with the New Glenn, powered by Bezo’s almost unlimited money.

    BO has an advantage over SpaceX in that BO will be doing production, testing, integration, and launch all in the same area. More efficient. I am unclear on why BO will not be doing RTLS. What is the advantage of relying entirely on a large ship for 1st stage recoveries? I realize that means more payload mass to orbit but that slightly greater payload mass won’t always be needed.

    SpaceX of course has the advantage of having a well defined mission statement that is driven by Elon’s personal ambition to colonize Mars. When I go to Blue Origin I cannot find a mission statement for BO. Sure, lowering the cost to orbit, taking tourists into space, but those things don’t fire the imagination in the same way.

    That said, I very much want BO to succeed. Together, SpaceX and BO may eventually kill the SLS and save American taxpayers some money.
     
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  19. jkn

    jkn Member

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    Perhaps they have to hit their ship several times, before being allowed to approach land target.
     
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  20. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    This seems very real to me. How quickly I forget the early days of SpaceX landings - those first few attempts to land on the drone ship - just the fact that the rocket came down close enough to hit the ship and explode seemed like a minor miracle to me. I realize it's 'just' physics, the the level of precision demonstrated over and over, even when the rockets were tipping over, coming in sideways, etc.. was and is remarkable.

    It seems likely that regulators are going to want to see anybody new wanting to do something similar, to prove it. You can come back and land on land AFTER you've proven you can get where you need to be within a very small number of meters.
     
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