Can ICE Manufacturers Survive?

[Dan5]

Patents from EV1? Patents don't last forever and the EV1 was what? 12 years ago? With patents lasting 17 years that doesn't look like a win for 20 + years in the future. Getting patents and letting them rot is a bad idea.
Will expiring patents help open up the EV world?

But it discourages others from copying and allows the patent holder to use it as a stick to beat the competition (Whole reason why Google is acquiring all the tech/phone companies so they can haul Apple into the court room, or have a MAD agreement with Apple). There's people who just sit on patents waiting for someone to utilize it and then sue them. If GM has X years left on it's patents, that's X years that the other companies have to waste to develop alternatives to the patent, weasel out of the patents, or pay GM royalties. GM has 20 years to sell the easiest to make technology, others may have 15 years.

If someone said you have to pay GM $X or you can't do this, this or this in the next 5 years that puts you at a competitive disadvantage.

 

[mattjs33]

You don't need to be on the board to realize that the GM dinosaur moves too slow to react to competition. What have they done different after the bailout? Tell me, I'm all ears.

To me the Volt is a joke. I drove one and was very unimpressed, and frankly for almost the cost of a base corvette, it's a no go for the majority who can afford it. The operating cost in the US is not less for the majority of folks, given the price. So why would you buy one again? Can you imagine the cost of ownership when the car gets 10 years old? It is much more complex than just an ice.

What does losing jobs have to do with anything? If Gm and Chrysler both wend under, yes people would have lost their jobs, but the demand for vehicles would have been nearly the same. Other automakers would have surely picked up the slack, that's a given. Yes, it would have probably taken some time, but the results would have probably been better. After all, patching those companies only prolongs the pain, instead of fixing the problems from the get go.

I also didn't say that Tesla would be a major automaker in the future, if they even make it at all. Tesla seems to be making a few little mistakes here and there which might all add up and bite the company in the arse someday. That being said, for the money, there is no better EV product than a model S. Yes, it may cost more, but I have learned long ago that you get what you pay for. It's much better to buy a quality product once, then keep buying junk over and over.

Qwk, you need to read more of the newspaper besides the op-ed articles you already agree with.

GM is a large company, to be sure, and not capable of reacting as quickly as a leaner operation would. But GM has changed its ways enough that you can say there are many differences from the before and after. There is a much greater emphasis on maintaining healthy inventory levels to reduce the need for discounting to push sales. There is a conscious effort to step away from low margin rental fleet sales. There is a new emphasis on the smaller size market; truck sales are subject to volatile gas prices. Don't kid yourself; this is a working nation and consumes a huge number of light duty trucks, so trucks will continue to rule. But GM's latest small car offerings are earning high praise and are quite competitive with those of companies used to having their way in that segment. The Chevrolet Cruze (on which the Volt is based) and Chevrolet Sonic (built here in the good ol' U.S.A., at a profit) are some fine examples. GM is rolling out its E-Assist system, a low-cost, qutie effective, hybrid system this year, and expects it to filter across its product range. They've taken the steps to bring EV development in house and will be releasing an all electric Spark next year.

The Volt is similar to the Roadster (which is effectively a toy) in that it is not a cost effective solution to anything except that it lets its owner make a statement of beliefs. For a one or two car family it solves the EV quandary by offering a range solution. It does cost too much and will be a servicing nightmare when it's 10 years old, but on the same token I will be curious to see what type of support the Roadster will have in 10 years. I think you will find it interesting that for all of its perceived faults, the Volt is outselling the (fully electric) Leaf thus far this calendar year.

The jobs comment was in response to your jab at GM and Chrysler and the need to rescue them. I assumed you would take a moment for some thought on that and make the connection, possibly even consider that there might be more than one side to a story. Apparently I gave you too much credit. Take several million cars out of the pipeline immediately and used car prices (and logically new car prices as well) would have spiked, out of the reach of many at their level of income (just as they did on a lesser scale after the ill-advised Cash for Clunkers pogram). Cue up more jobs lost and deeper recession. The other makers would not be able to respond in less than a few years. Talk about prolonging pain.

I happen to think that Tesla will survive in some form, barring a disasterous Model S launch. Most likely in a few years the lure of the high mileage ratings will prove too great for some major manufacturer looking to quickly and easily raise their CAFE rating, and they will make Elon and offer he can't refuse. Elon pockets an ungodly profit, and moves on to spaceships or moon bases or whatever crazy thing he's up to out there in the desert.

 

[vfx]

Patents from EV1? Patents don't last forever and the EV1 was what? 12 years ago? With patents lasting 17 years that doesn't look like a win for 20 + years in the future. Getting patents and letting them rot is a bad idea.
Will expiring patents help open up the EV world?

Not to mention the technology jump. Tesla stopped paying AC Propulsion licenses fees at Roadster 2.0. Tesla went all digital when AC was analog. Rav4s and the EV1 are way old school.

 

[richkae]

Patents from EV1? Patents don't last forever and the EV1 was what? 12 years ago? With patents lasting 17 years that doesn't look like a win for 20 + years in the future. Getting patents and letting them rot is a bad idea.
Will expiring patents help open up the EV world?

They may have some old patents, but they had a massive brain drain after they killed the EV1. The experience and talent went elsewhere.

 

[Robert.Boston]

They may have some old patents, but they had a massive brain drain after they killed the EV1. The experience and talent went elsewhere.

And they have a huge credibility gap in attracting new talent. How many innovative, entrepreneurial engineers would sign up to work on EVs for GM?