Electric new sales S-Curve

Ive been seeing a lot of analysis that the transition from ICE to Electric cars will take on a S-Curve shape, and 5% EV sales is the tipping point to join the S-Curve, but none of those graphs ever have any X axis... like how many years does the S curve take. Does it need consistent subsidies per country etc.

So I decided to pull a few country data in different markets with different EV stimulus's to see if there is any alignment of the S-curve, and what can we expect in Australia, since we ticked over 5% this year (now over 8%).

I chose these countries:
Norway - The leader which is already at 83%, and will show if there really is an S shape.
Iceland - The next biggest penetration of EV cars for new sales, although last year there was a slowing of growth.
France - A typical European country.
China - The big player in Asia.
and little old Australia.

Here it is. Each country has their own year they hit 5%, and so I have lined up that transition point to be the same year (year 10 as shown below).

Conclusions:
It really is an S curve.
Every country is following Norway's lead pretty accurately.
Norway is planning to stop selling ICE cars in 2025 (year 21 in this graph) which is 11 years after they had the 5% transition of sales.
This means that its very likely Australia will also stop selling ICE cars in 11 years which is 2034.
Policy variation between countries doesnt make much difference

 

[sishome]

The 'S' curve is simply a manifestation of the Central Limit Theorem.

M? Why?..

 

[sishome]

Oh, already discussed, sorry.

 

[EatsShoots]

I hate to say it but Americans are notoriously shortsighted. There is an inverse relationship between the cost of gas and sales of ICE SUVs and Trucks. The cheaper the gas, the more we buy gas guzzling vehicles.

Our country has a collective memory of a goldfish. It’s maddening.

100%. Our gas is cheap as hell, so it makes driving 5000 lb pickup truck to an office job quite affordable.

 

[phxazcraig]

Totally agree!

Certainly applies to this 70-year-old suburban white male. I never knew any real details on EV's, and I generally held an ignorant worldview of them that was at least 5 years obsolete. Then one day last year I went to visit my nephew, and he had me drive his new Model 3, which he got on a 3-year lease.

I've always been into performance driving, but since I got my first motorcycle in 1970, I found that an average motorcycle is much quicker than most performance cars. In other words, I found cars mostly boring. I do like my last ICE car, a 2012 Infiniti M37. Has enough oomph to get out of its own way and merge with traffic, and it is rear wheel drive so tends to have nicer steering feel. But it's nowhere near as fun as the 175hp 1300cc motorcycle I have.

When I drove the model 3, my worldview changed. It can be summed up when I asked my nephew - a professional car mechanic - if he would buy another ICE car. He said never again. I was astonished. As for the car, all the usual reactions. Loved the drive-ability and acceleration, and this was a M3 RWD. Found one-pedal-driving disconcerting, so he turned it down to creep mode. (Now I love it.)

I came away from the drive thinking how much better the driving experience was - more like a motorcycle.

A few months later and I turned my car over 100,000 miles and started thinking about replacing it. I immediately through hybrid, until I started researching BEVs and hybrids. I wanted future-proofing.

Long story shorter, I ended deciding to buy a MYP in May 2023, and found funds for it by July. Took a test drive of a new MYP to confirm suspension (now called 'comfort') wasn't too stiff. (Comparable to my Infiniti). So I ordered one after my test drive and took delivery in late August.

Had I not had that test drive from a relative, I would never have thought much about a Tesla or a BEV. It was that one drive that was such a revelation.

I picked up the MYP in August and haven't driven my motorcycle or Infiniti since. Been on two road trips, have 7,500 miles on it, and I'm much more inclined to figure a charging strategy to get somewhere on a road trip than take the ICE car.