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China Wins Electric Bus War

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by mspohr, May 24, 2019.

  1. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    The bus wars are over. Electricity — and China — won.

    China has 421,000 electric buses. The United States has 300.

    But in recent years, it has become overwhelmingly clear that nothing can compete with electricity for the highest efficiency and performance along with lowest emissions and lifetime cost, including fuel and maintenance.

    “Everything that has an urban drive cycle will ultimately be an electric vehicle,” Ryan Popple, the president and CEO of Proterra, the leading U.S. electric bus company, explained to ThinkProgress back in 2016.

    But electric buses aren’t just winning because they have no tailpipe emissions. They are also so efficient they have one-fourth the per-mile fueling cost of regular diesel buses and the other alternatives — even running on renewable power, thanks to the rapid price drops of solar and wind power.

    In addition, electric buses have considerably lower maintenance costs, as many studieshave shown. So over the 10- to 12-year lifetime of a typical urban transport bus, an electric bus can save $400,000 in total operational costs compared to a typical diesel.

    The Chinese have a 99% stranglehold on production and use of electric batteries. The United States has little chance of matching China until we have a president and Congress that understand that the urgency and inevitability of a carbon-free future means the nation that makes the biggest bets on clean technology will reap the most rewards in the years to come.

    upload_2019-5-24_14-12-34.png
     
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  2. Sean Wagner

    Sean Wagner Member

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    I'd be OK with a coherent strategy that delivers progress that can be felt in a useful amount of time.

    Makes no sense aiming for a goal that is simply out of reach [China's electric bus market penetration]. Skating backwards and blindfolded towards the puck... in

    Alternative goals make a lot more sense - say massive investments in renewables science, and working on making the US the attractive first stop for top-flight scientists again by removing barriers to movement and cooperation. Transparent regulatory frameworks conducive to growth. Free trade mechanisms like TTIP and TPP.

    Ryan Popple used to work for Tesla - he's an interesting person for sure.
    Here's an audio interview that I recommend:
    Watt It Takes: Assessing the Promise of Electric Buses With Proterra CEO Ryan Popple

    Just a teeny addendum: this is not a war. Pet peeve.
     
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  3. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    I agree that labeling everything a "war" is stupid. It's a competition.

    Research is all fine and good but China has taken over the electric bus market using existing technology. US excels in research... not so much in development.

    Free trade will help the Chinese take over the world bus market.
     
  4. Sean Wagner

    Sean Wagner Member

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    TTIP was meant to be with Europe, TPP expressly with Asian countries other than China.

    The EU now has FTAs with Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Chile, and probably quite some more countries. A Jaguar e-Pace built in Austria by Magna can now be exported tariff-free to Japan.

    I agree that it's not only in our interest to treat China separately. Useful rules and some clarity of conduct would still be a net benefit, though.

    As for the scientific angle, Tesla certainly looks like it will benefit from Maxwell's tech. The question must be why the heck so very many American enterprises just have no staying power in or strategy for the gigantic world market?
     
  5. Sean Wagner

    Sean Wagner Member

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    The following list is instructive, I think:
    Top 100 global OEM parts suppliers – Ranked by sales of original equipment parts in 2017
    https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA116090622.PDF

    Elon Musk said during his visit to Germany in 2016 [I think] that Tesla couldn't find American suppliers of sufficient quality for certain interior parts and had to use a German company. Likewise for the Model 3's special electric cabling sourced from Austria [that small firm invested early in advanced products]. Etc...
     
  6. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    Wow! That's interesting... Not many US suppliers there. Europe dominates the list.
     
  7. Sean Wagner

    Sean Wagner Member

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    And it used to be different.
     
  8. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

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  9. CarlK

    CarlK Active Member

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    #9 CarlK, May 27, 2019
    Last edited: May 27, 2019
    Don't think the US even have that many buses alltogether. That could be one reason why there is not a very high interest from manufactures. It should not be too hard for Tesla to make self driving electric bus if there is enough demand to make it worthwhile.
     
  10. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    #10 Brando, Jun 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
    Sadly, IMHO, you can't underestimate the corruption in many local governments. In ~ 1995 here in Seattle, Natural Gas fueled Buses were tested - simple modified diesel engines to burn Natural Gas - or buy replacements. Seattle was replacing and expanding large articulated buses [some over head electric with diesel engines to go beyond over head electric line to near by towns]. Of course great success. AND yet unexplained diesel replacements - no natural gas (Seattle/Tacoma area) were bought. Of course this increased fuel costs 4x for the next 25 years. When will we get electrics? still unknown. Oil companies love it. Also our Ferry system could save a small fortune by going electric, but we rebuilt these Ferry boats and used diesel generators to drive electric motors. Short range could have meant batteries and short ~ 10 mile runs solar panels on top of Ferry would have been forward thinking to help in charging (inspire/encourage solar panels - would have been great).

    So I suspect Koch brothers and other oil companies have made sure bus/ferry electrification has been delayed.
    The Kochs Are Plotting A Multimillion-Dollar Assault On Electric Vehicles | HuffPost
     
  11. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    #11 Brando, Jun 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
    IF you listen/watch mainstream media CNN, MSNBC, FOX, major newspapers etc... You would "know" we are already at war with China.
    Expansion of US Naval bases. Trillion Dollar expansion of atomic weapons. Military Planning of China & Russia wars. Venezuela and Iran. Africa
    Bombing of Yemen (billions in sales of weapons, bombs, droning missions to allow Saudi to killing citizens in Yemen. Very dangerous times and really sad.
     
  12. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    #12 Brando, Jun 2, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
    side note: about 1,000 electric buses being tested by both BYD and Proterra. Only ~70,000 diesel buses to replace in the US. (per the interview see link OP at the top of this thread)
    Another example of corruption - School buses - 400,000 are used twice per day. On my small island, I suspect taxis would be cheaper as I see so few kids on the bus. They must be sleeping on the seats. Island ~ 10 miles long. So bus diesel engines barely get to operating temp.

    These are some of the reasons electric markets are China, Europe and US a distant third. Except for Tesla which supplies much of the electrics in California & US.
    13 Amazing Tesla Sales Milestones (+ 17 Charts) | CleanTechnica
     
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