Destination route based autopilot

[Peteski]

Not sure where I said vehicles should be banned? I actually think FSD is a good 10 years away if not more.

Every single drive something happens where I think ‘how would the car have dealt with that’. Tree branches fallen into the road (but around 1m from the ground sticking out), massive potholes, fallen over road cones, pedestrian crossings, zebra crossings (uk thing), bicycles, blowouts, roundabouts, the list goes on....

It might be a bit quicker in the US due to the road structure but it’s almost inconceivable for it to be able to manage a start to finish drive in the uk, every time, without input for many many years.

This ^
It simply isn't practical to have FSD in the UK. There are too many narrow roads and idiot human drivers around for it to cope without plenty of human management. You can get closer to FSD than we are currently, but not the full deal. But I'll be happy if it can handle motorways and A-roads without too much intervention - which I think is fairly realistic given where AP2 is today.

 

[Saghost]

Not sure where I said vehicles should be banned? I actually think FSD is a good 10 years away if not more.

Every single drive something happens where I think ‘how would the car have dealt with that’. Tree branches fallen into the road (but around 1m from the ground sticking out), massive potholes, fallen over road cones, pedestrian crossings, zebra crossings (uk thing), bicycles, blowouts, roundabouts, the list goes on....

It might be a bit quicker in the US due to the road structure but it’s almost inconceivable for it to be able to manage a start to finish drive in the uk, every time, without input for many many years.

Getting to level 5 is obviously a complicated journey. But there's a lot of value in the intermediate steps. All a level 3 car needs to do is realize that one of your scenarios is happening with five or ten seconds of warning and yell for help.

What's more, Tesla can use the records of each occasion the car yells for help to figure out what the network needs to do based on what it sees and how the driver reacts.

I think level 3 for FSD cars on freeways might come along fairly soon and would have great value to the customers (and will likely cause me to upgrade from my AP1 X when it arrives.)

 

[mxnym]

Not sure where I said vehicles should be banned? I actually think FSD is a good 10 years away if not more.

Every single drive something happens where I think ‘how would the car have dealt with that’. Tree branches fallen into the road (but around 1m from the ground sticking out), massive potholes, fallen over road cones, pedestrian crossings, zebra crossings (uk thing), bicycles, blowouts, roundabouts, the list goes on....

It might be a bit quicker in the US due to the road structure but it’s almost inconceivable for it to be able to manage a start to finish drive in the uk, every time, without input for many many years.

I owe you an apology, because I sometimes forget this is an international forum and I didn't even look at your location. Sorry about that. That having been said, here is what you did say:

To be honest I can't see FSD until ALL cars are FSD. They have to be able to talk to each other as well otherwise it will never be safe enough. I really think consumer level FSD is still 5-10 years away.

Here is what I read:
We could have consumer level FSD in 5-10 years, and it will only work (because/if) ALL cars are FSD.

In my mind, that implies that even AP1 Tesla vehicles (that may only be 7-12 years old in some cases) are banned from the roads that support FSD in order for consumer level FSD to exist. That may be realistic in the UK, but most likely wouldn't in the US considering both geography (the infrastructure requirements for the larger and more sparsely populated portions of the US would be pretty significant) and very relaxed laws regarding what is roadworthy in some states.

 

[Asterix187]

No need to apologise. Its a discussion forum

I think what I was more suggesting is that in reality it won't be about in even 5-10 years because, unless they can simulate a human brain in speed and visual processing, it will be almost impossible to process information quickly enough and to then perform an actual action before a crash.

Its almost like an OODA Loop conundrum where, by the time a decision is made, a new visual input has happened to potentially change the decision. Tie all that together with the almost infinitely complex array of options and actions and its hard to see how it will all work safely in the real world. The key to this is 'safely'.

The interesting thing is its probably not the hardware but rather then programmers holding it all back. This is suggested by Elon when he says all cars have the hardware for FSD. I don't think they have already written the software and so it must be a software/programmer issue.

It is a very complex array of code!

 

[mxnym]

unless they can simulate a human brain in speed and visual processing

I think they need to do better than a human brain, and I think "AI" is practically there in terms of simulation and speed. Visual processing is another question, but the demise of Moore's law has long been incorrectly predicted, so I can't imagine it actually taking as long as we can imagine it would take.

 

[mxnym]

To potentially correct the post that I just made, visual processing is not necessarily truly another question. For instance, it may already be possible for AI to generate fake videos of real people faster (and perhaps better) than a human can. I didn't watch and listen to this video, but I am under the impression that it impressively supports that possibility:

 

[robz]

Maybe they listen. Hopefully to all the suggestions and discussions.
More interactive would be great.

 

[robz]

FSD is just that, FULL SELF DRIVE. Meaning it will handle all intersections, stop lights, stop signs, traffic, pedestrians, etc. etc.

What the OP is asking for is AP being able to negotiate a predetermined route by making the necessary turns and such itself. But still have human intervention every 1.6 miles, and still have humans negotiating stop lights and the like.

Remember when we purchased our AP2 cars we were promised that AP would take the proper on and off ramps, negotiate lane changes, etc. to merge onto the correct interstates and so on when driving across country? This is fairly close to what the OP is asking for and would be quite nice to have. I’ve driven millions of miles on virtually every interstate in the US and it’s still nerve wracking sometimes trying to get into the correct lane to take the correct exit to get on the correct highway to continue my journey in major cities. I can only imagine how stress inducing it is for someone seeing that area for the first time.

....And with rowdy kids in the back.
Yes you got my drift, hopefully Tesla does as well.