Electrify Everything

[mspohr]

 

[mspohr]

How did Norway become the electric car superpower? Oil money, civil disobedience – and Morten from a-ha

More than 90% of new cars sold in Norway are electric. And it all started with some pop stars driving around in a jerry-built Fiat Panda

www.theguardian.com

So, in 1989, Røstvik and three similarly environmentally concerned friends imported an electric car, probably the country’s first. It was a converted Fiat Panda, with the back seats removed to accommodate a huge bank of batteries. It took a couple of days to charge and powered the car for only 20 to 25 miles.

They began a campaign of civil disobedience, driving their Panda on toll roads around Oslo without paying. “It was a non-polluting car, so it shouldn’t pay,” Røstvik says. They had a list of demands, to incentivise electric car use: free use of toll roads, no import tax or VAT, free parking, public charging stations, access to bus lanes.

With its rugged mountains, long, cold winters and widely dispersed population, Norway is perhaps an unlikely country to revolutionise transportation. How has it managed to get so far ahead? “Simple answer: good tax policies,” says Christina Bu, the secretary general of the Norwegian EV Association, the world’s largest EV club, with more than 120,000 members

Plus, they use electricity for heating homes, increasingly via heat pumps, “so the grid is pretty strong” compared with other countries. Norwegian infrastructure was better prepared to meet the demands of EV charging, but nonetheless the country is investing heavily in building a new grid. “We are ready for total electrification,” says Nygaard. Norway already has an electric passenger ferry, operating between Stavanger, Byøyene and Hommersåk, and a boat charger at the dock.

 

[mspohr]

If in doubt, electrifying whenever something breaks is often the simplest pathway to a lower-carbon home. “When it dies, electrify,” quipped Wyent. That approach means paying only for things that need replacing anyway, and can split the unwieldy into smaller, more manageable projects

Emission impossible: the maddening, nightmare quest to decarbonize my home

Here’s what happened when two climate reporters tried to ditch natural gas

www.theguardian.com

Plan your next electrification project today

Electrify your home with Rewiring America's personalized electrification planner tool.

homes.rewiringamerica.org

 

[mspohr]

Why is US energy demand soaring – putting climate goals at risk?

New industries such as cryptocurrency and cannabis are boosting industry forecasts, straining efforts to cut emissions

www.theguardian.com

After more than 30 years of falling or flat demand for electricity, forecasts say the nation will need the equivalent of about 34 new nuclear plants, or 38 gigawatts, over the next five years to power data centers and manufacturing and electrify buildings and vehicles, according to filings made to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and compiled by Grid Strategies.

The nationwide estimates don’t necessarily include the growth of hard-to-track but energy-hogging cryptocurrency or cannabis farming, which are estimated to be using up to 2.3% and 1%, respectively, of the nation’s electricity. Energy demand in these industries has shot up with the popularity of cryptocurrency and legalization of marijuana.Data mining is driving demand in Texas, where bitcoin and other crypto miners have requested the equivalent of roughly 41 new nuclear power plants to power their energy-intensive computer processes to generate the cryptocurrency.

Electric utilities, though, view natural gas plants as the more logical, and profitable, choice. In some states, they make more money building multibillion-dollar power plants than renewable generation.

 

[andy92782]

The nationwide estimates don’t necessarily include the growth of hard-to-track but energy-hogging cryptocurrency or cannabis farming, which are estimated to be using up to 2.3% and 1%, respectively, of the nation’s electricity. Energy demand in these industries has shot up with the popularity of cryptocurrency and legalization of marijuana.Data mining is driving demand in Texas, where bitcoin and other crypto miners have requested the equivalent of roughly 41 new nuclear power plants to power their energy-intensive computer processes to generate the cryptocurrency.

I am curious to know how much demand is (or will be) created by "legit" datacenters being built to train neural networks. For a company who's mission statement is "To accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy", Tesla sure consumes a lot of juice in datacenters trying to make FSD actually work...

How much electricity does AI consume?

How many watts and joules does it actually take to generate a single Balenciaga pope?

www.theverge.com

 

[kpanda17]

I am curious to know how much demand is (or will be) created by "legit" datacenters being built to train neural networks. For a company who's mission statement is "To accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy", Tesla sure consumes a lot of juice in datacenters trying to make FSD actually work...

How much electricity does AI consume?

How many watts and joules does it actually take to generate a single Balenciaga pope?

www.theverge.com

Interesting paradigm
Tesla Master Plan envisions sustainability, Robotaxi, higher per vehicle utilization, less vehicles

To get there AI will require increasing numbers of data centers and compute with high energy use

It’s expected, but the offset will be less ICEs, less overall vehicles, more efficiency through increased vehicle use/productivity/utilization
And the AI data centers will be powered by increases of wind, solar and nuclear

Not a horrible future
As long as we reduce CO2

 

[mspohr]

Interesting paradigm
Tesla Master Plan envisions sustainability, Robotaxi, higher per vehicle utilization, less vehicles

To get there AI will require increasing numbers of data centers and compute with high energy use

It’s expected, but the offset will be less ICEs, less overall vehicles, more efficiency through increased vehicle use/productivity/utilization
And the AI data centers will be powered by increases of wind, solar and nuclear

Not a horrible future
As long as we reduce CO2

Yes, but AI, crypto, and data centers threaten to increase CO2

 

[kpanda17]

Yes, but AI, crypto, and data centers threaten to increase CO2

not if we keep up with those renewables

 

[andy92782]

In my opinion, nuclear energy is dead in the United States of NIMBY. All you need to do is skim a few threads on Nextdoor to understand why. Soccer moms come out with pitchforks any time Verizon or T-Mobile proposes a new cell tower anywhere remotely close to a residential neighborhood. Can you imagine their reaction if a nuclear power plant is proposed?

The other problem with nuclear power is waste. The federal government has yet to solve the permanent disposal problem which means any nuclear power plant, no matter the size, will need room for decades' worth of semi-permanent storage for waste. I'm reminded of this every time I drive by San Onofre, a permanently-shut nuclear power plant with over 1,000 tons of the stuff sitting there within a stone's throw of the ocean. There is nowhere for it to go.

Regardless of nuclear, crypto farming/mining operations will always consume any overabundance of cheap electricity. There is no practical way to ban these activities from taking place. If electricity is inexpensive somewhere, mining operations will move in.

AI is a different story. I'm particularly skeptical of Tesla. For a variety of reasons I won't get into in this thread, I'm in the "FSD will never work" camp, so I view any energy spent on training FSD as wasteful. Furthermore, manufacturing humanoid robots (Optimus) whose neural networks require similar levels of energy to train are also a waste. These are counter to Tesla's mission statement.

 

[kpanda17]

In my opinion, nuclear energy is dead in the United States of NIMBY. All you need to do is skim a few threads on Nextdoor to understand why. Soccer moms come out with pitchforks any time Verizon or T-Mobile proposes a new cell tower anywhere remotely close to a residential neighborhood. Can you imagine their reaction if a nuclear power plant is proposed?

The other problem with nuclear power is waste. The federal government has yet to solve the permanent disposal problem which means any nuclear power plant, no matter the size, will need room for decades' worth of semi-permanent storage for waste. I'm reminded of this every time I drive by San Onofre, a permanently-shut nuclear power plant with over 1,000 tons of the stuff sitting there within a stone's throw of the ocean. There is nowhere for it to go.

Regardless of nuclear, crypto farming/mining operations will always consume any overabundance of cheap electricity. There is no practical way to ban these activities from taking place. If electricity is inexpensive somewhere, mining operations will move in.

AI is a different story. I'm particularly skeptical of Tesla. For a variety of reasons I won't get into in this thread, I'm in the "FSD will never work" camp, so I view any energy spent on training FSD as wasteful. Furthermore, manufacturing humanoid robots (Optimus) whose neural networks require similar levels of energy to train are also a waste. These are counter to Tesla's mission statement.

France is building more nuclear than ever, most open mind countries are having it as one of the three sustainable pillars
Adding AI to the nuclear plant monitoring, could detect the problem before it comes dangerous, Japan did not detect early enough

 

[nwdiver]

France is building more nuclear than ever, most open mind countries are having it as one of the three sustainable pillars
Adding AI to the nuclear plant monitoring, could detect the problem before it comes dangerous, Japan did not detect early enough

It's not a question of safety it's a question of economics. It's physically impossible to build a thermal plant cheap enough that it can operate viably with a CF <80%. Solar and wind have become hilariously cheap. I just bought a pallet of solar panels for $0.23/w. That's nuts. In bulk they're < $0.15/w. And the cost is still falling. With perovskites coming soon we could see power density of PV increase >20% by 2030. 500w residential solar panels. Also nuts.

~4 years ago you needed a special 'high-dollar' inverter to have batteries. Today ~every grid-tie inverter is storage ready and they're cheaper. I just bought a 20kWh LiFe battery bank for $5k that should last 20 years. Should be able to get 40kWh for ~$5k by 2030.

It's hard to see a future for thermal generation unless distributed energy is banned.

 

[kpanda17]

It's not a question of safety it's a question of economics. It's physically impossible to build a thermal plant cheap enough that it can operate viably with a CF <80%. Solar and wind have become hilariously cheap. I just bought a pallet of solar panels for $0.23/w. That's nuts. In bulk they're < $0.15/w. And the cost is still falling. With perovskites coming soon we could see power density of PV increase >20% by 2030. 500w residential solar panels. Also nuts.

~4 years ago you needed a special 'high-dollar' inverter to have batteries. Today ~every grid-tie inverter is storage ready and they're cheaper. I just bought a 20kWh LiFe battery bank for $5k that should last 20 years. Should be able to get 40kWh for ~$5k by 2030.

It's hard to see a future for thermal generation unless distributed energy is banned.

good info and I agree, new nuclear is vs batteries+solar and batteries+wind
but gov't funded, they move forward, dont count out nuclear, it works when there is no wind and at night/cloudy days
Currently there are 16 under construction world wide

Plans for New Nuclear Reactors Worldwide - World Nuclear Association

Plans for New Nuclear Reactors Worldwide. Information on the growth of global nuclear capacity with a table showing all under construction reactors.

world-nuclear.org

 

[nwdiver]

it works when there is no wind and at night/cloudy days

That's my point. Nuclear is the wrong shaped piece to fit in that hole. Nuclear NEEDS to run ~24/7/365. Not 'can'... NEEDS. That's not flexible. Not just when there's no wind and at night/cloudy days.

And it's amusing when people say 'nuclear' in response to ERCOT needing ~4GW of capacity by 2027 due to load growth. Ok... so rolling blackouts 2027 - 2045 until the nuclear is online? Or... ~6GW of gas turbines that take 2 years to build paired with 20GW of renewables to reduce fuel use.

 

[kpanda17]

That's my point. Nuclear is the wrong shaped piece to fit in that hole. Nuclear NEEDS to run ~24/7/365. Not 'can'... NEEDS. That's not flexible. Not just when there's no wind and at night/cloudy days.

And it's amusing when people say 'nuclear' in response to ERCOT needing ~4GW of capacity by 2027 due to load growth. Ok... so rolling blackouts 2027 - 2045 until the nuclear is online? Or... ~6GW of gas turbines that take 2 years to build paired with 20GW of renewables to reduce fuel use.

think you maybe misinformed
"Yes, nuclear power plants can have variable output. Nuclear reactors can change their output to meet grid demands. For example, operators can reduce power output by limiting the amount of steam that goes through a
turbine. Nuclear plants can also vary their output if run in CHP mode, which changes the ratio of heat to power output. "
this variable output can match the variable output of wind and solar, not sure just batteries can fill the gap
there have been areas with extremely long low wind and sun, due to this crazy environmental impacted weather
The germans have a term for it and its real
"In the renewable energy sector, a dunkelflaute (German: [ˈdʊŋkəlˌflaʊtə] ⓘ, lit. 'dark doldrums' or 'dark wind lull', plural dunkelflauten)[1] is a period of time in which little or no energy can be generated with wind and solar power, because there is neither wind nor sunlight.[2][3][4] In meteorology, this is known as anticyclonic gloom."
Nuclear can operate in the Dunkelflaute
remember from the cost side, the govt handles this, not a profit thing, like the public transportation that typically runs in the red

 

[nwdiver]

think you maybe misinformed

I understand that they can physically vary their output. I have a degree in nuclear engineering. Economically they cannot vary their output.

It's physically impossible to build a thermal plant cheap enough that it can operate viably with a CF <80%.

The cost to keep a GW of nuclear operational is ~$300M/yr. Regardless of whether it produced 1MWh or 8000GWh.

 

[kpanda17]

I understand that they can physically vary their output. I have a degree in nuclear engineering. Economically they cannot vary their output.

the govt smooths over the economic issue
this is how France operates, I have family there
btw, respect your degree, i'm EE

 

[nwdiver]

the govt smooths over the economic issue
this is how France operates, I have family there
btw, respect your degree, i'm EE

Sure. Nationalization is a solution. Probably the only solution. That's where the conversation needs to be. It's not nuclear vs renewables. It's 'free-ish' markets vs central planning. The irony is that most nuclear proponents are trying to use nuclear as a wedge to encourage less government regulation with the misconception this will make nuclear more competitive. In reality the opposite is true.

 

[kpanda17]

Sure. Nationalization is a solution. Probably the only solution. That's where the conversation needs to be. It's not nuclear vs renewables. It's 'free-ish' markets vs central planning. The irony is that most nuclear proponents are trying to use nuclear as a wedge to encourage less government regulation with the misconception this will make nuclear more competitive. In reality the opposite is true.

due to the amount of control and regulation, our grid is really nationalism
in NY Metro, when the local utility fails hurricane protection and restoration, they get fined, penalized
lots of oversight

 

[nwdiver]

due to the amount of control and regulation, our grid is really nationalism

If that were true we wouldn't be closing nuclear plants simply because they're unprofitable.

The other ISOs need to become like the TVA. With a CEO accountable to a board of directors which in turn are appointed by POTUS not shareholders. Nationalization not 'nationalism' is the only way nuclear has a future. That's the conversation. Do we nationalize the US electric grid with ownership turned over to the US government.

 

[andy92782]

France is building more nuclear than ever, most open mind countries are having it as one of the three sustainable pillars
Adding AI to the nuclear plant monitoring, could detect the problem before it comes dangerous, Japan did not detect early enough

There is zero chance AI could have prevented Fukushima. The plant was fatally flawed by having its backup generators placed in a location vulnerable to flooding from tsunamis. Humans were well aware of the problem but chose not to do anything about it because that was the easier thing to do.