To be fair, miles per disengagement is a much different metric than miles per injury. For a L2 system it's fair to expect plenty of situations that it can't handle at all or to the skill level of a human driver. Hopefully an observant driver combined with a L2 system is safer than a human driver alone.Dirty Tesla (Youtube person with FSD beta) is at 3 miles per disengagement.
Only a 1 million time increase in reliability is needed to hit CJ's 1-2 million target. Only 30 million needed to hit Elons 1:100M.
Let's say we manage to increase reliability by 50% every week.
3 to 1 million is only 31 weeks away!
See, we're almost there. Just need to improve exponentially for the next 8 months on something that has taken 5 years to get from 0-3.
Then Elon's number is only 12 weeks behind that!
Ok, Ok, 50% is pretty unrealistic. Let's say we can do 10% per week...
Well, then 1:1M is only 134 weeks away. 2.6 years. Sounds perfect for Elon. It's always 2 years away.
I have my doubts given how many posts we see here about people that can't manage to keep their hands on the wheel using NoA, that try to use autopilot places it's not intended to be used, and that don't understand that autopilot doesn't make the car autonomous. However, I'd love to be proven wrong.
To me, the city streets beta is best case a safety enhancing L2 feature and worst case a novelty that I'll use because I'm a technology nerd.