Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[wcorey]

FC is not nebulous. Tesla has publicly defined it. Just read the FSD order page when you are ordering s new Tesla. FC is NOA highway, auto lane change, auto park, enhanced summon, traffic light and stop sign recognition and automatic driving on city streets.

Now we can debate what sub-features are required but those are the big features that Tesla plans to sell in some form that constitutes FC.

Yes, I know, Now I am sounding argumentative. I suspect that is not the entirety of stories or features Tesla has internally. What does concern me is autopark. AP should be able to park in distant empty spaces that are wider than one car length. Consider, where would the car park in an empty parking lot.
But I do agree Feature complete is not at all nebulous to the development team and it's management. For those that don't have a software engineering background, another reason for this is to avoid what is known as 'feature creep'. I believe it is incredibly safe to assume none of us know what feature complete (a non-agile term) or collection of stories make up version 1 of FSD. And, no, Society of Automotive Engineers don't get to define it. I've yet to hear anyone from Tesla refer to an SAE autononomous level. Maybe they have, I've just never seen or heard it. So this is the wiggle-room for people to say it'll take 5 years to 10 years. Sure, I believe if they are still around they will be adding to it in 5-10 yrs but when they declare it done for version 1 I still believe will be this year.

 

[wcorey]

There is one additional point to this: Tesla/Musk defined ”feature complete by end of 2019” as ”Level 5 no geofence” feature complete at the Autonomy Investory Day so we have a public claim by the company on what their internal feature list to be completed amounts to.

As you implied, a CEO of a publicly traded company can not lie about this, so we know what their feature complete means.

Ah HA! I had not seen or heard that. Thanks! And I did watch that video. I also kind of zoned out at some point from all the droning that was going on.

 

[wcorey]

There is one additional point to this: Tesla/Musk defined ”feature complete by end of 2019” as ”Level 5 no geofence” feature complete at the Autonomy Investory Day so we have a public claim by the company on what their internal feature list to be completed amounts to.

As you implied, a CEO of a publicly traded company can not lie about this, so we know what their feature complete means.

The Ark interview, at 9 mins in he succinctly goes into, in layman's terms what feature complete means to him and addresses reliability, predictability, repeatability issues, AKA "March of 9's".

I felt Ark was a much more doable than Investor Day.

Safe enough to fall asleep - end of 2020.

 

[electronblue]

The Ark interview, at 9 mins in he succinctly goes into, in layman's terms what feature complete means to him and addresses reliability, predictability, repeatability issues, AKA "March of 9's".

I felt Ark was a much more doable than Investor Day.

Safe enough to fall asleep - end of 2020.

Sure, I would not be surprised if Musk is changing his message again and simply not delivering what he said at the Autonomy Investory Day which was unambigiously Level 5 no geofence.

It would not be surprising.

 

[wcorey]

Isn’t the answer basically everything on that list given that Tesla defined feature complete at the end of 2019 as ”Level 5 no geofence”

If that's what Musk said at Investor Day he contradicts it in Ark. End of 2019, with supervision car will pick you up in a parking lot, take you to wherever, so long as regulators allow them to even turn the fuctionality on. Fall asleep while car drives, end of 2020.

 

[electronblue]

FC is NOA highway, auto lane change, auto park, enhanced summon, traffic light and stop sign recognition and automatic driving on city streets.

FC will not be L5 on release because it will initially require driver supervision. But Tesla is designing FSD to be L5 after they move past FC. And, Tesla intends FSD to have the same ODD as L5 (ie every road, all weather and day and night).

According to Tesla/Musk at Investory Autonomy Day, FC is ”Level 5 no geofence” so what they announced there was different from what you say now.

 

[wcorey]

Sure, I would not be surprised if Musk is changing his message again and simply not delivering what he said at the Autonomy Investory Day which was unambigiously Level 5 no geofence.

It would not be surprising.

Do you recall about where in Investor Day Musk goes into what end of 2019 is? As I said previously, to relive that entire video will be painful. I think the Ark interview was in Feb. When was Investor Day?

 

[electronblue]

Do you recall about where in Investor Day Musk goes into what end of 2019 is? As I said previously, to relive that entire video will be painful. I think the Ark interview was in Feb. When was Investor Day?

Musk was asked by audience somewhere in the middle what he means by feature complete by the end of year 2019, does he mean Level 5 no geofence and he simply answered: Yes.

 

[wcorey]

Sure, I would not be surprised if Musk is changing his message again and simply not delivering what he said at the Autonomy Investory Day which was unambigiously Level 5 no geofence.

It would not be surprising.

OK, help me out here. I am listening to the distilled Investor Day squeezed into 15 mins

At about 3:45 mins in.... he says mid next year (2020) feature complete you could fall asleep level of reliability. And they'd have over 1M robotaxis on the road. Now, he did not say or imply regulator approval but just they would be on the road. Where you are saying he specifically stated Level 5 no geo fencing. would you give URL and time stamp?

 

[electronblue]

@wcorey I would have to look for it, if I find it I will let you know.

 

[daniel]

Musk says that by the end of 2020 it will be safe to fall asleep while the car takes you where you want to go, though he also says that regulators might not allow it. I say that if Tesla can demonstrate that the car is significantly safer than a human driver, many jurisdictions will authorize its use. But I don't think Tesla can get there by then.

In the long list in Post 1614, I was struck by item 8.3: The car must be able to recognize when a human is directing traffic, overriding posted signage and traffic lights. This, I suspect, will be very difficult. Personally, I think we are at least two generations of computers away from the needed processing power. A similar but distinct situation is when a pedestrian steps into the street or is standing at a crosswalk wanting to cross but waves the car through. I think this is not a trivial problem to solve.

Right now it tries to stay in the center of its lane and is remarkably good at that. But Level 5, which Elon promises (with driver attention, which, of course is by definition not Level 5) the car will have to be capable of hugging one side of the lane or the other as needed, and even straddling the center lane at times. My street is two lanes but cars park so that you have to straddle the center line to get past. I suspect that EAP would just come to a stop and wait until someone moves the parked car, which might be the next day.

Still, if Tesla can be "feature complete" at Level 2 (constant driver attention required) but it takes you from any point to any other point with only occasional intervention needed, I'll pay for the upgrade to FSD.

 

[electronblue]

OK, help me out here. I am listening to the distilled Investor Day squeezed into 15 mins

At about 3:45 mins in.... he says mid next year (2020) feature complete you could fall asleep level of reliability. And they'd have over 1M robotaxis on the road. Now, he did not say or imply regulator approval but just they would be on the road. Where you are saying he specifically stated Level 5 no geo fencing. would you give URL and time stamp?

OK so here. It is around 3:31:45 on the full Tesla video.

Question from the audience: ”Just so that we understand the definitions, when you refer to feature complete self-driving it sounds like you are talking Level 5 no geofence? Is that whats expected by the end of the year? Just so...”

Musk: ”Yes.”

 

[Daniel in SD]

At about 3:45 mins in.... he says mid next year (2020) feature complete you could fall asleep level of reliability. And they'd have over 1M robotaxis on the road. Now, he did not say or imply regulator approval but just they would be on the road. Where you are saying he specifically stated Level 5 no geo fencing. would you give URL and time stamp?

Youtube has transcripts.
3:31:45
Colin Lang and UBS: "Just so we understand the definitions when you refer to feature complete self-driving it sounds like you're talking level 5, no geofence. Is that what's expected by the end of year?"
Elon Musk: "Yes."

I guess we should really compile a list of these ridiculous claims.

 

[wcorey]

Musk was asked by audience somewhere in the middle what he means by feature complete by the end of year 2019, does he mean Level 5 no geofence and he simply answered: Yes.

https://gizmodo.com/stuff-elon-musk-said-about-tesla-autonomous-cars-on-mon-1834233680

This is why reporters get a bad name. There is what he reportedly said then there is the supporting quote which is not at all what they claimed he said.
Tesla will have level 5 autonomy in 2020 which means they will self-drive so well “no one needs to pay attention”
By next year, Musk claimed, Tesla’s chips will be running “feature complete” software that will allow fully computer-controlled driving in any conditions that can be handled by a human. This, as the Verge observed, appears to refer to what is called Level 5 autonomy, which has not yet been developed.

“By the middle of next year, we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving hardware, feature complete, at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention,” Musk said, per Geekwire. He also claimed that all current Tesla models have “everything necessary for full self-driving” and that all the company needs to do is “improve the software.”

Musk never said level 5 nor did he say they'd be approved to turn on that functionality.

My take....he's pretty consistent in his story. That in the Q&A where he was getting barrarged by questions somebody asked a question including 'level 5' and he responded yes...I would discount that depending on the situation, given in that same event he said, with specificity, where he felt the software would be in mid 2020. So that in another interview he said late 2019 that technology would be available albeit requiring supervision...TOTALLY CONSISTENT.
As I've said elsewhere, in about 6 months one of us will be saying "told you so". I am OK if it's you. We all want the same thing.

 

[electronblue]

@wcorey

I would disagree he was barraged by questions. It was the Q&A session where he had plenty of time to answer at length and with nuance. He was asked to clarify a very simple point, where he had time and space to answer as he saw fit, and he saw fit to acknowledge he had been meaning ”Level 5 no geofence” all along for the end of 2019 feature complete.

Now, if he lied (for example to make it all sound better than it is), that is of course a different ballgame.

 

[electronblue]

I remember the day, watching it live as we were. I was as surprised by Musk’s statement as you guys are. It was a huge announcement in that answer.

 

[Daniel in SD]

“By the middle of next year, we’ll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving hardware, feature complete, at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention,” Musk said, per Geekwire. He also claimed that all current Tesla models have “everything necessary for full self-driving” and that all the company needs to do is “improve the software.”

Musk never said level 5 nor did he say they'd be approved to turn on that functionality.

That is level 5 autonomy! If you don't need to pay attention and there is no geofence then it's level 5.
The Model Y also requires regulatory approval. Should every article on the Model Y point that out?

 

[Matias]

Now, if he lied (for example to make it all sound better than it is), that is of course a different ballgame.

I genuinely believe it’s this:

 

[Matias]

I remember the day, watching it live as we were. I was as surprised by Musk’s statement as you guys are. It was a huge announcement in that answer.

But stock price didn’t move a bit. Because no one believes him.

 

[electronblue]

But stock price didn’t move a bit. Because no one believes him.

I agree believability affected the stock price reaction.

Nevertheless it was a huge claim from Musk.

I am a Tesla car owner. I do not care about the stock one bit.