EVNow
Well-Known Member
That is what I'd call "nebulous". Basically that involves all the features in the compiled list (except freeway driving).
Ofcourse, I hope, FC is not nebulous for the feature team
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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"
- Thread starter dckiwi
- Start date
Ofcourse, I hope, FC is not nebulous for the feature team
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I've posted that several times too
. I think he may genuinely believe that there will be some sort of breakthrough that will allow the system's capabilities to improve exponentially. My other theory is that they've got a human level artificial intelligence in the lab already and they just need to stop it from occasionally going insane and trying to kill.
I think you're seeing a distinction without a difference. If the cars can drive with no one paying attention, which is what he said, that's the definition of level 5. Robotaxis by definition don't have drivers, so they must have a level of autonomy equivalent to level 5.
Also, just arbitrarily discounting the fact that he agreed that level 5 was what he was talking about seems, well, arbitrary.
Musk is on record in several places saying that next year or very soon after, Teslas will be capable of driving everywhere without any supervision, and that within a few years after that there won't be driver controls built into the car. Regulatory approval is a different thing of course, but he's promising that the cars can do it, although they may not be allowed to drive autonomously without human supervision. That's still level 5 within a year or 3.
Color me exceptionally doubtful.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Two things to note. First - Musk has this tendency to treat all interactions like a twitter interaction. He just wants to give his "hot takes" rather than CEO answers. That "yes" and a big smirk is his "hot take".
Second, he also said, something like "I've been accused of being late - justifiably - but I always deliver".
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Waymo recognizes hand signals already. BTW, all those items listed there (i.e. NHTSA and Waymo+) Waymo claims to be able to do. The only question is at what error rate.
BTW, it is difficult for anyone not actually in the trenches working on the problem to figure out what can or can't be done and when. Even when we are working on the problem actively, sometimes it is difficult to tell.
I don’t think that applies to the Autonomy Investor Day. His answers were long and nuanced quite often, as they are when he is interviewed.
The simplest explanation is: He answered the question and did not see a need for nuance this time around, because it was a simple question for him. (Whether or not he was truthful remains to be seen.)
It was at the tail end. Thanks to all for the time mark.
Here's what I just did. I tweeted Musk, referenced this discussion and asked him for clarification. Yes, he talked about geofencing in regard to what Lidar requires.
Earlier in that same presentation he was VERY specific for end of 2019 it would be feature complete for supervised FSD and middle of 2020 for 'you could fall asleep'.
As for your last sentence which I highlighted. Yeah, I agree with that. If he skimmed over 'end of the year', where the questioner meant THIS year when in his head he was thinking NEXT year for level 5 as he had stated earlier in that presentation he said middle of next year for 'you could fall asleep'. He doesn't address what failure rate would still exist as that is a learning specific issue. We are at the point of arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. You and Dan are arguing what he said "Yes" to vs what he, in detailed, explained. It hinges on how one interprets 'end of year'.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
No. I think I am correctly interpreting what Elon said at Autonomy Day. When he says L5 he is saying that FC is designed for L5. It will have the same ODD as L5. But it is important to understand that FC will not actually be L5 in practice right out of the gate. In other words, when Tesla releases FC, it won't be a full robotaxi at first. Musk has explained that Tesla will need to improve reliability of FC to get to full L5 where it can be a robotaxi. FC will require driver supervision at first.
That is a key distinction because some of you mistakenly think that FC released later this year will be full robotaxi right out of the gate when Elon never promised that.
@wcorey Actually there is no discrepancy in my view. The question was about the ”feature complete for supervised FSD” by end of 2019 since that was the only ”feature complete” that was discussed.
The question simply asked to clarify what level of features the feature complete refers to, which Musk clarified was indeed Level 5 no geofence by end of 2019.
My take on why there is no discrepancy: Of course it will initially require supervision for reliability reasons. Feature complete does not mean production quality. But for feature complete to be the case, the features it implements would be at Level 5 no geofence level, everything needed for Level 5 no geofence, even if still unreliable and driver supervision still needed.
The question simply asked to clarify what level of features the feature complete refers to, which Musk clarified was indeed Level 5 no geofence by end of 2019.
My take on why there is no discrepancy: Of course it will initially require supervision for reliability reasons. Feature complete does not mean production quality. But for feature complete to be the case, the features it implements would be at Level 5 no geofence level, everything needed for Level 5 no geofence, even if still unreliable and driver supervision still needed.
No, I still think you are mistaken. Nobody here is expecting — or thinks Musk claimed — FC will be released at the end of the year, let alone there being Tesla robotaxis in production by the end of the year.
I believe we are talking about what Tesla says they will have implemented as features by the end of the year in their development version.
That, Tesla/Musk defined as ”Level 5 no geofence” feature complete at the end of 2019. That is what they said on Autonomy Investor Day. If they said something else somewhere else that is another thing.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not really - lot of his answers were short and smirky. I commented on this on the investor thread too. His comments are mostly boastful rather than explanatory. Its like he is talking to his silicon valley peers rather than wall st non-geeks.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
I'm good with that. So does that mean we can tie a ribbon around this conversation????
@EVNow Sure, I would agree Musk sometimes avoids answering uncomfortable questions properly and likes to go for hype. But defining feature complete by end of 2019 was a very specific question and he didn’t give a non-answer. He could have easily given a non-answer that would have been a ”hot take”.
Instead he said Yes to ”Level 5 no geofence”.
Instead he said Yes to ”Level 5 no geofence”.
I’ll give a simple example of what ”Level 5 no geofence” must include for it to be true in my view:
Recognition for all traffic signs required to follow traffic rules.
It does not need to be 100% reliable but missing full traffic sign recognition would mean it can not be Level 5 no geofence feature complete. The feature has to exist and be implemented, even if it is unreliable.
And no, simply doing stop signs and traffic lights would not be feature complete for Level 5 no geofence.
Just as one example. There are many more things of course.
Recognition for all traffic signs required to follow traffic rules.
It does not need to be 100% reliable but missing full traffic sign recognition would mean it can not be Level 5 no geofence feature complete. The feature has to exist and be implemented, even if it is unreliable.
And no, simply doing stop signs and traffic lights would not be feature complete for Level 5 no geofence.
Just as one example. There are many more things of course.
I thought we were done here. Yes, I believe I agree with you @diplomat33 . As I've said elsewhere I've spent over 45 yrs in software engineering. But that encompasses a lot of things. Short of a brief stint in recommendation learning, "based on people who like the books/movies your like they also like the following books/movies you haven't seen" my career has not entailed AI as in deep learning ala self driving. But actually these two are similar in many ways and the accuracy of recommendations for books and movies is predicated on the population size of shared likes and dislikes. Feature complete relates to programming features. accuracy depends of depth of library / miles driven. So what Musk is saying is the software will be done by end of year [for full level 5 compliance. The necessary knowledge base to support full level 5 compliance will be mid next year to end of next year.
I think if I bought a Tesla in 2015, I'd be kind of jaundiced at this point myself. If I didn't know anything about software engineering, I definitely would be. In fact, that would have been my last Tesla likely. I am pretty much ignorant at the Lex Friedman and Elon Musk level of AI knowledge. However, I am crystal clear on feature complete in software engineering. I did notice something very interesting with this latest release. It shows the level of the knowledge base. I believe we'll see that level changing far more rapidly than the level of software.
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OK, that does sound reasonable. However, I believe the software can be level 5 in the US and not be level 5 in Switzerland. I take geofencing to mean New England vs Southern CA or Providence RI vs Hartford, CT. as Lidar would differentiate.
Let me rephrase. It may be entirely possible the software is level 5 both places but the knowledge base for EU, AS, etc may take longer meaning the car, in that place, would not be level 5 in practice.
Yes of course. Level 5 no geofence as defined by SAE in J3016 does allow ”no geofence” to mean a particular market (eg entire U.S.) not the world.
My theory is they have it on the roads, which is why he can speak authoritatively about it. But, having learned his lession with EAP and Enhanced Summons he'll keep it under wraps until they are ready for the full public beta.
It was last week, I believe it was you, pointed out that spreadsheet was different than the unabridged J3016. I did try to download it but it was for members of SAE, only. I did not find another source, which isn't saying there isn't one.
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