Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[BigD0g]

Thanks for the clarification. The way you worded it was not completely clear to me.

I’ll summarize, we are f-cked.

 

[diplomat33]

I’ll summarize, we are f-cked.

Maybe you are but I'm doing just fine with my AP2.5 Model 3 LR with EAP and FSD.

 

[iTech]

Maybe you are but I'm doing just fine with my AP2.5 Model 3 LR with EAP and FSD.

If his car is...then your car will be too.

 

[OPRCE]

I specifically mean the current-generation vehicles with current-generation sensor suite, regardless of how many times they update the computing power. So "HW3" is the compute board upgrade but not a sensor upgrade. I don't believe it will enable L4/L5 driverless robotaxi-level autonomy, at least not before the cars are hopelessly outdated anyway. (So, something like 7 years maybe? By which time the whole landscape will have changed and it won't matter -- and Tesla won't be updating AP2/2.5 anymore.)

If AP3 (as opposed to HW3) comes around with a better sensor suite and more redundancy, then all bets are off. But current-generation vehicles will never get a retrofitted AP3 sensor suite. I would not be surprised to see something like "AP2.9" which is HW3 computer plus some minor enhancements to the sensors and wiring to allow better redundancy, maybe heated radar. AP2/2.5 cars will not get this (hypothetical) AP2.9 upgrade because it's too expensive to change wiring and sensor mounting, if the mounting needs to change. This may give you better performance but I still don't think you're in the robotaxi zone.

Still hypothetically, AP3 would be something like 360-degree radar coverage and/or short-range (small) stereo camera pairs providing 360-degree coverage with sensor cleaning, plus a true long-range forward stereo camera pair or lidar, plus more redundancy in the electronic braking, steering, and power delivery systems, plus ~5 HW3 chips to crunch all that data. I could get on board with something like that providing robotaxi-level autonomy, circa 2024.

Obviously no current-generation vehicles are getting that retrofit.

If this scenario is [as I suspect] fairly accurate, then the options resolve to:
A) Accept that HW3+FSD without sensor upgrades will provide maximum L3 (without nags) probably ~Jan 2023, or
B) Organise/join class-action lawsuit to force HW-upgrade through rebated vehicle exchange or otherwise recover the difference in value between the probable L3 and what we were oversold as L5 FSD for Tesla Network.

Although unpleasant, it is necessary to have a serious discussion about option B, as relevant evidence now needs to be marshalled before it is lost or forgotten about, to strengthen the case even if it never goes to court. OTOH, not being organised together mean individual pleas for clemency will fall like water off a duck's back.

 

[zmarty]

B) Organise/join class-action lawsuit to force HW-upgrade through rebated vehicle exchange or otherwise recover the difference in value between the probable L3 and what we were oversold as L5 FSD for Tesla Network.

That would be some lawsuit!

 

[iTech]

If this scenario is [as I suspect] fairly accurate, then the options resolve to:
A) Accept that HW3+FSD without sensor upgrades will provide maximum L3 (without nags) probably ~Jan 2023, or
B) Organise/join class-action lawsuit to force HW-upgrade through rebated vehicle exchange or otherwise recover the difference in value between the probable L3 and what we were oversold as L5 FSD for Tesla Network.

Although unpleasant, it is necessary to have a serious discussion about option B, as relevant evidence now needs to be marshalled before it is lost or forgotten about, to strengthen the case even if it never goes to court. OTOH, not being organised together mean individual pleas for clemency will fall like water off a duck's back.

They never said FSD has to work reliably right?

 

[zmarty]

They never said FSD has to work reliably right?

How about that twice better than humans promise?

 

[OPRCE]

That would be some lawsuit!

We have to "Make it so!", as the Captain hath commanded, or else be mightily short-changed, and having one's pockets dipped should never be taken lightly.

 

[strangecosmos]

The audio from Tesla’s recent conference call with the media is now public:

$35,000 Model 3 Conference Call Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

You can read a (fairly mangled) transcript here:

Tesla Feb 28 Secret Conference Call Transcript - Full Self Driving; Model 3 & More

 

[diplomat33]

On the Model 3 facebook page, a user appears to be claiming that Tesla is demo'ing FSD in test drives:

Sahabid Chailín Kevin Becker not true. What they showed me stopped at signs, turned on it's own etc.

Sahabid Chailín on a test drive. we put in destinations, it drove itself 95% of the way including city streets. and you are right publicly available, but the show room models did.

Bobby Woolf Sahabid Chailín may be correct. On my test drive in November, we were using Navigate on Autopilot on city streets near the Tesla store.

Tesla Model 3

 

[diplomat33]

Also here is more from Musk during the $35k Model 3 call:

I think where we're very clear with the you know when you when you buy the car what what it's meant by full self driving it means its feature complete, but feature complete requiring supervision and then as as we get more we really need billions of miles if not maybe 10 billion sort of miles or kilometers on that order collectively from the fleet than [inaudible] in our opinion probably at that point supervision is not required but that will still be up to regulators to agree. So we're just very quickly there's really three steps this being feature complete proportion self driving but requiring supervision, future complete but not requiring supervision, and feature complete not requiring supervision and regulators agree.

I think we're closer to releasing full self driving features. So we're just sort of close enough I thought at that time it was creating too much confusion but now really with the release on navigate an autopilot for highways which is already released in the US and parts of Europe and will soon go worldwide and with the [inaudible release of advance summon and the fact that I'm driving right now the development version of Autopilot and it works extremely well in terms of recognizing traffic lights and stop signs and is now starting to make turns effectively in complex urban environments. So I'm confident enough at this point to say to sell full self driving. And and and, yeah. I think it's looking really good like the features I'm talking about I'm driving in development mode right now.

Source: Dropbox - Tesla Call Transcript (2.28.19).pdf

Take it for what it's worth. It is Elon after all. But it certainly looks to me like the definition of FSD has not changed. Musk/Tesla just feel ready now that once the software is "feature complete", they can release it to the public with driver supervision, collect a tons of data that will help them validate and get it to L4. Now perhaps that final part that gets it to L4 will only happen on the next hardware suite, but that is their FSD strategy.

I also find it interesting that Musk says that he is driving a version of FSD in development mode that can make turns in complex ubran environments as well as stop for traffic lights. So it would appear that Tesla has city self-driving done in development now. It just needs to be improved more.

 

[run-the-joules]

B) Organise/join class-action lawsuit to force HW-upgrade through rebated vehicle exchange or otherwise recover the difference in value between the probable L3 and what we were oversold as L5 FSD for Tesla Network.

In the course of history has there ever been a class action suit that was a "win" for anyone but the lawyers? We'd all end up with a small check or a token discount on a new car at best.

 

[iTech]

In the course of history has there ever been a class action suit that was a "win" for anyone but the lawyers? We'd all end up with a small check or a token discount on a new car at best.

Tesla would still be on the losing side for what they did. Maybe lesson learned for them?

Then again...

 

[OPRCE]

In the course of history has there ever been a class action suit that was a "win" for anyone but the lawyers? We'd all end up with a small check or a token discount on a new car at best.

To me that question indicates confused priorities: what is more important, to begrudge lawyers being paid for work they do in accordance with an agreement with their clients, or to not end up as the ones being screwed over by someone ruthless who will breach contract and laugh it off unless made to feel the consequences?

IMHO our only chance is through "strength in numbers" ... banded together we have a greatly enhanced chance of negotiating a fair resolution with Tesla, without ever having to go into court if they agree to do the decent thing. If not, it must be imposed upon them, along with the concomitant negative publicity and all that entails.

In the alternative do you imagine individual emails of complaint are going to cut it?

To be or not to be a sucker, that is the question?

 

[Interferon]

To me that question indicates confused priorities: what is more important, to begrudge lawyers being paid for work they do in accordance with an agreement with their clients, or to not end up as the ones being screwed over by someone ruthless who will breach contract and laugh it off unless made to feel the consequences?

IMHO our only chance is through "strength in numbers" ... banded together we have a greatly enhanced chance of negotiating a fair resolution with Tesla, without ever having to go into court if they agree to do the decent thing. If not, it must be imposed upon them, along with the concomitant negative publicity and all that entails.

In the alternative do you imagine individual emails of complaint are going to cut it?

To be or not to be a sucker, that is the question?

Probably a bit early to start lawsuits. But I suppose it is better to be prepared.

I bought FSD in late 2017, but the cost was only 2% of the total for the car, so I'm not going to get too angry about it one way or the other.

Someone that bought it with a $40,000 Model 3 would end up paying almost 8% of the price of the car. That would probably make them more upset.

As I have said many times before, I just wish that Elon had kept his mouth shut about FSD until it was ready for full release. Then there wouldn't be any controversy and he would have still sold plenty of cars.

 

[run-the-joules]

To me that question indicates confused priorities: what is more important, to begrudge lawyers being paid for work they do in accordance with an agreement with their clients, or to not end up as the ones being screwed over by someone ruthless who will breach contract and laugh it off unless made to feel the consequences?

IMHO our only chance is through "strength in numbers" ... banded together we have a greatly enhanced chance of negotiating a fair resolution with Tesla, without ever having to go into court if they agree to do the decent thing. If not, it must be imposed upon them, along with the concomitant negative publicity and all that entails.

In the alternative do you imagine individual emails of complaint are going to cut it?

To be or not to be a sucker, that is the question?

It depends on what you want. If you want to be made whole, a class action won’t help.

If you want Tesla to pay a bunch of money and don’t care who gets it, a class action may help.

 

[diplomat33]

I do think that Tesla should link FSD with the driver instead of the vehicle. It would reassure a lot of owners that if Tesla does delay or does need radically new hardware to make FSD happen, that they can still get what they paid for, even if it is on their next Tesla car. This would be reassuring for AP2 Model S owners who are worried that Tesla will only achieve FSD long after the life of their car. When they are ready to trade in, they could buy another Tesla and get FSD with it without having to pay for it all over again. I think this would go along way.

 

[OPRCE]

It depends on what you want. If you want to be made whole, a class action won’t help.

If you want Tesla to pay a bunch of money and don’t care who gets it, a class action may help.

OK, but please explain how we get "made whole" without being organised and at least raising a realistic threat of the CALS and/or some severely bad PR for Tesla/Musk?

 

[run-the-joules]

OK, but please explain how we get "made whole" without being organised and at least raising a realistic threat of the CALS and/or some severely bad PR for Tesla/Musk?

Honestly I don't see any realistic situation in which this works out to everyone's happiness. Yes, a group action is probably needed of some sort, though.

 

[OPRCE]

I do think that Tesla should link FSD with the driver instead of the vehicle. It would reassure a lot of owners that if Tesla does delay or does need radically new hardware to make FSD happen, that they can still get what they paid for, even if it is on their next Tesla car. This would be reassuring for AP2 Model S owners who are worried that Tesla will only achieve FSD long after the life of their car. When they are ready to trade in, they could buy another Tesla and get FSD with it without having to pay for it all over again. I think this would go along way.

This could be a good start, thanks!