Elon Standard Time Scalar

[Interferon]

I think I have figured out the Elon Standard Time Scalar (tm).

It is the value of Pi. I believe that Elon thinks of time in units of radians.

Around Aug. 1, Elon said V9 would be out at the end of August. Multiply 1 month by 3.14 and you get somewhere around the 4th of Nov.

So my prediction is Nov 4 plus or minus 1 day for release.

 

[Cheburashka]

Right, but his infamous "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely" for FSD statement was about 2 years ago.

 

[RDoc]

There's no way it's linear, or even continuous.

 

[dondy]

I think I have figured out the Elon Standard Time Scalar (tm).

It is the value of Pi. I believe that Elon thinks of time in units of radians.

Around Aug. 1, Elon said V9 would be out at the end of August. Multiply 1 month by 3.14 and you get somewhere around the 4th of Nov.

So my prediction is Nov 4 plus or minus 1 day for release.

There are two "Elon times".
1. Aspiration time. If to listen to SpaceX employees (the real ones) they all say that Musk pushes clearly unrealistic dates as a super-target, which allows them to do things in "impossible way"
2. Musk internal time.
From what I see Musk has difficulties with "internal timing". To cut things short, he can approximate precisely the time of one process, but it can be difficult to compare multiple processes in one consecutive chain. Longer difficult processes got blurred and counted in the same way as simple ones.
It's connected also with the language (skipping words, putting words before standard position etc.) and is very normal feature for people with very fast brain.

"From coast to coast" will happen when they will be sure that the system works properly in "hard cases".
If to watch reports about current V9, it's almost ready but not yet there.

 

[dramsey]

And there's the "no timeline you can come up with will make sense" version.

After Elon promising v9 with "major new autonomy features" in August...then September...than October...Tesla's blog says today:

• With Software 9.0, Navigate on Autopilot will initially be released in Shadow Mode – a dormant logging-only mode which lets us validate the performance of the feature in the background based on millions of miles of real-world driving. Once validation is complete, we will introduce Navigate on Autopilot as a beta feature to customers in the U.S. Navigate on Autopilot will be introduced in other markets in the future pending validation and regulatory approval.

So we'll get v9 without the promising autopilot improvements, which will come at some point in the misty indefinite future...apparently after "millions of miles" of real-world driving. Sigh.