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Features you believe the Model 3 will have to make it compelling?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by MitchJi, Mar 30, 2016.

  1. MitchJi

    MitchJi Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness

    Jun 1, 2015
    Marin County, CA
    #1 MitchJi, Mar 30, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2016
    I that believe the Model 3 will be more compelling than most member of this forum. I think that the information that I based my opinions on could be really useful in trading and investment decisions having to do with tomorrows reveal, so I rushed to put this together.

    I recently posted a list of features that believe the Model 3 will have to make it compelling. Pretty much everyone said that everything on that list was unnecessary (almost irrelevant) and too expensive.

    Elon has said repeatedly that he aspires to make compelling cars, even saying "We're trying to decide whether we should show all the cards". And JB said "It [the model 3] will wow everyone with features".

    We have analysts stating that:
    “We do not believe this production process is one competitors can easily recreate”. Plus the cost savings due to "an 80% vertically integrated operation". EM said that when they bring production in-house it always saves them money.

    And (my esimate) "worst case compared to the Chevy Bolt it will cost Tesla $1,800 less for the same pack size".

    My question is which features do you believe that the Model 3 will have to make it compelling, and which features (cards) will they keep close to the vest?

    I believe that the most likely features are:
    A big (MX) windshield. My estimated cost about $300.
    They had some supply issues for a short time, and possibly some seal issues, but I think that they could easily resolve those and EM said that he personally prefers the MS, and he said that one feature of the MX that he really likes is the big windshield.

    Include AP. Sensors, cameras and wiring etc. at 100k cars per year probably cost under $400, the remaining cost is software, which they are developing anyway, and it will work better with a larger fleet.

    Include Local Supercharging. This might cost them $300-$500 per car, which they can allocate to a faster build out, and this prevents self selection.

    Make the basic pack size at least 70kWh, which would give a real world range of close to 300 miles. Compared to the 55kWh size some of you think is likely this would cost them a maximum of $2k per car. They might decide to keep this close to the vest to minimize the impact on MS and MX sales, until they increase those pack sizes.

    Total added cost about $3k. Documentation below:

    Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk Calls Apple's Electric Car An 'Open Secret'
    Elon Musk hasn't decided how much of the Model 3 to show next month
    Which some people foolishly interpreted as meaning:
    Tesla Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel Discusses Model 3
    Analysts Tour Tesla Factory, Cite "Stunning Progress"
    Tesla Motors factory visit: Report highlights falling battery prices, vertical integration, and self-driving technology
    Goldman Sachs reported on changes at the Tesla factory: "They report that the factory has changed a lot since they visited the last time over a year ago. For example, they said the automaker has grown into the space it has and now is more fully utilizing it. In fact, they expect future expansions will result in non-assembly functions being moved to satellite facilities... The automaker is running about an 80% vertically integrated operation."

    Battery technology and pricing improvements were also reported: "Also on their manufacturing tour, [Goldman Sachs analyst] Archambault and team found that Tesla continues to improve its battery cells in density, safety and duration, with some tests checking for more than 1,000 cycles to improve duration. They noted that although the automaker doesn’t specifically outline exact costs, representatives said $200 per kilowatt-hour is about where they are right now, and they’re targeting less than $100 per kilowatt-hour per pack."

    Keeping in mind that the Chevy Bolt has a 60kWh pack (Cell Cost $145 per kWh) pack cost at least $160 per kWh, and that an extremely conservative figure for Tesla Pack would be $130 per kWh:
    $200 - 35% (30% GF + 5% cell) = $130 per kWh

    So worst case it would cost Tesla $1,800 less for the same pack size.
  2. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

    Mar 15, 2016

    Thanks MitchJi for the OP above:

    (don't know if this will post correctly...2 attempts to post were lost when the site went down last night)

    I agree the features of M3 will be off the scale as far as compelling goes.

    I won't list them. I'll just describe one possible knock-out feature. It dawned on me only yesterday while on a walk: Powerwall EPS in car, not in house.

    Musk said they were redesigning it, and I was trying to imagine a house variant maybe a modular mini Powerwall, perhaps on wheels. Wrong! It's on wheels alright but sealed under the floor of the car! Stupid me! Why didn't I see that before? There were so many clues!​

    WAG for the most unexpected compelling feature:

    The performance variant will have an emergency power supply (EPS). You will be able to run any domestic appliances that you plug into a wall socket at home by plugging them into sockets on the M3 instead.

    M3 Performance will achieve this by having two battery packs.
    The bigger will be part of the skateboard and common to both Performance and non Performance variants.

    The smaller battery pack will be the new version of the discontinued EPS 10 kWh Powerwall which will augment range and performance as well as providing a house-type AC supply to its in-car power outlet sockets. Of course it will need its own specialised inverter circuits dedicated to that end.

    (I came to this conclusion after thinking about what might be needed to convert XP90D into XP100D, designation already in its software exposed by WK's hack. Answer: new version of old 10 kWh EPS Powerwall. It will fit in that deep recess into the floor right at the back).​

    Think of the utility of such an EPS feature in an M3. For the house, in the event of a grid outage, just run an extension lead from the car into the house terminating in multiple sockets. Unplug from house wall sockets any of the appliances you want to keep running and simply plug into the M3's extension lead.

    Imagine camping with such a facility on board. No genset noise for a start.

    Think of a tradesperson out on a job needing to use power tools.

    Think how much better it is to have a Powerwall EPS in the car than the house. You could comfortably draw down half of battery capacity and still drive M3 for 100 miles thereafter.

    Powewall in the car = 35 kwhr, say. Powerwall (discontinued version) in the house = 10 kWh. For an EPS it's a no brainer which type is better!

    Not only more than three times the capacity but you can take it wherever you want.

    What can you NOT do with a thing like that?!
  3. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

    Feb 28, 2013
    Should be able to plug the car into a modified circuit and do the same thing. Why complicate it with another pack? In terms of added range people who need it can just buy a larger pack size in the car. Either way you have to pay for the extra size
  4. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

    Mar 15, 2016
    30seconds, I think your comment is to me not MitchJi's very good OP. I'll bite, but not a big junk to try to keep it short:

    Why buy a bigger anything? Yet people who buy added range range and performance get an EPS at no additional price.
    As to it is in fact simpler to manufacture.

    The M3's battery pack which is common to all variants is an integral part of the car's structure. You wouldn't want to mess with that to provide bonus features. The second battery pack enabling those features is an add on which does not affect the strucure of the car. Easy.

    And simpler in production line logistics.

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