I that believe the Model 3 will be more compelling than most member of this forum. I think that the information that I based my opinions on could be really useful in trading and investment decisions having to do with tomorrows reveal, so I rushed to put this together.
I recently posted a list of features that believe the Model 3 will have to make it compelling. Pretty much everyone said that everything on that list was unnecessary (almost irrelevant) and too expensive.
Elon has said repeatedly that he aspires to make compelling cars, even saying "We're trying to decide whether we should show all the cards". And JB said "It [the model 3] will wow everyone with features".
We have analysts stating that:
“We do not believe this production process is one competitors can easily recreate”. Plus the cost savings due to "an 80% vertically integrated operation". EM said that when they bring production in-house it always saves them money.
And (my esimate) "worst case compared to the Chevy Bolt it will cost Tesla $1,800 less for the same pack size".
My question is which features do you believe that the Model 3 will have to make it compelling, and which features (cards) will they keep close to the vest?
I believe that the most likely features are:
A big (MX) windshield. My estimated cost about $300.
They had some supply issues for a short time, and possibly some seal issues, but I think that they could easily resolve those and EM said that he personally prefers the MS, and he said that one feature of the MX that he really likes is the big windshield.
Include AP. Sensors, cameras and wiring etc. at 100k cars per year probably cost under $400, the remaining cost is software, which they are developing anyway, and it will work better with a larger fleet.
Include Local Supercharging. This might cost them $300-$500 per car, which they can allocate to a faster build out, and this prevents self selection.
Make the basic pack size at least 70kWh, which would give a real world range of close to 300 miles. Compared to the 55kWh size some of you think is likely this would cost them a maximum of $2k per car. They might decide to keep this close to the vest to minimize the impact on MS and MX sales, until they increase those pack sizes.
Total added cost about $3k. Documentation below:
Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk Calls Apple's Electric Car An 'Open Secret'
Elon Musk hasn't decided how much of the Model 3 to show next month
Which some people foolishly interpreted as meaning:
Tesla Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel Discusses Model 3
Analysts Tour Tesla Factory, Cite "Stunning Progress"
Tesla Motors factory visit: Report highlights falling battery prices, vertical integration, and self-driving technology
Goldman Sachs reported on changes at the Tesla factory: "They report that the factory has changed a lot since they visited the last time over a year ago. For example, they said the automaker has grown into the space it has and now is more fully utilizing it. In fact, they expect future expansions will result in non-assembly functions being moved to satellite facilities... The automaker is running about an 80% vertically integrated operation."
Battery technology and pricing improvements were also reported: "Also on their manufacturing tour, [Goldman Sachs analyst] Archambault and team found that Tesla continues to improve its battery cells in density, safety and duration, with some tests checking for more than 1,000 cycles to improve duration. They noted that although the automaker doesn’t specifically outline exact costs, representatives said $200 per kilowatt-hour is about where they are right now, and they’re targeting less than $100 per kilowatt-hour per pack."
Keeping in mind that the Chevy Bolt has a 60kWh pack (Cell Cost $145 per kWh) pack cost at least $160 per kWh, and that an extremely conservative figure for Tesla Pack would be $130 per kWh:
$200 - 35% (30% GF + 5% cell) = $130 per kWh
So worst case it would cost Tesla $1,800 less for the same pack size.
I recently posted a list of features that believe the Model 3 will have to make it compelling. Pretty much everyone said that everything on that list was unnecessary (almost irrelevant) and too expensive.
Elon has said repeatedly that he aspires to make compelling cars, even saying "We're trying to decide whether we should show all the cards". And JB said "It [the model 3] will wow everyone with features".
We have analysts stating that:
“We do not believe this production process is one competitors can easily recreate”. Plus the cost savings due to "an 80% vertically integrated operation". EM said that when they bring production in-house it always saves them money.
And (my esimate) "worst case compared to the Chevy Bolt it will cost Tesla $1,800 less for the same pack size".
My question is which features do you believe that the Model 3 will have to make it compelling, and which features (cards) will they keep close to the vest?
I believe that the most likely features are:
A big (MX) windshield. My estimated cost about $300.
They had some supply issues for a short time, and possibly some seal issues, but I think that they could easily resolve those and EM said that he personally prefers the MS, and he said that one feature of the MX that he really likes is the big windshield.
Include AP. Sensors, cameras and wiring etc. at 100k cars per year probably cost under $400, the remaining cost is software, which they are developing anyway, and it will work better with a larger fleet.
Include Local Supercharging. This might cost them $300-$500 per car, which they can allocate to a faster build out, and this prevents self selection.
Make the basic pack size at least 70kWh, which would give a real world range of close to 300 miles. Compared to the 55kWh size some of you think is likely this would cost them a maximum of $2k per car. They might decide to keep this close to the vest to minimize the impact on MS and MX sales, until they increase those pack sizes.
Total added cost about $3k. Documentation below:
dailymail said:Electric cars need to be more ‘futuristic’, says Elon Musk
'What we're aspiring to do is to make the cars so compelling that even with lower gas prices, it's still the car you want to buy,' said Musk.
Musk said new Tesla cars would have more affordable price tags - the Model Three sedan planned for 2017 will cost an estimated $35,000, half the cost of other Teslas.
Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk Calls Apple's Electric Car An 'Open Secret'
ibtimes said:01/12/16
Despite Apple’s accelerated push into developing an Apple Car, Musk welcomed the entrance of additional players into the electric car market. "Tesla will still aspire to make the most compelling electric vehicles, and that would be our goal, while at the same time helping other companies to make electric cars as well,” he told the BBC on Monday.
cnn said:Electric car industry to 'suffer' from cheap oil, Elon Musk says
"I think if GM or any other companies come out with compelling electric cars, that's good for the world and we would applaud that," he told CNN.
Elon Musk hasn't decided how much of the Model 3 to show next month
theverge said:"We're trying to decide whether we should show all the cards or keep a few cards close to the vest," he said. "We haven't made a decision yet."
Which some people foolishly interpreted as meaning:
theverge said:But whether we get just a few teaser shots or a full-on unveil of the actual car, inside and out, is apparently still a decision that rests in Musk's hands.
Tesla Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel Discusses Model 3
insideevs said:JB Straubel (barely) talks model 3
It has “next generation” Tesla tech.
It’s about the size of an Audi A4.
It will wow everyone with features.
Every EV component, from battery innards to electric motors, is quickly dropping in price.
Analysts Tour Tesla Factory, Cite "Stunning Progress"
teslarati said:Steifel analyst James Albertine said,“In roughly one year since our last visit, the progress witnessed is truly stunning.” Tesla has invested amost $1.6 billion in upgrades to the factory in the past 12 months as it prepares to begin manufacturing the Model 3.
All the analysts noted the presence of many more robots on the assembly line since their last visit, but there are more human workers as well. Tesla says it boosted its work force by 29% last year. The total number of people employed at the factory now stands at 13,058.
There are “several football field sized areas spanning the entry to the facility with desks, computers and seemingly invigorated staff,” James Albertine writes. “There was an energy and buzz within the facility that is hard to imagine as an outsider.”
“Robotics systems are customized, production processes are revolutionary, and attention-to-detail/supply chain management is improving by the minute,” Albertine writes. “We do not believe this production process is one competitors can easily recreate.” Benjamin Kallo of Baird & Co says Tesla’s manufacturing skills will help the company reach its target of more than 25% gross profit margins on the Model X.
Battery Costs Tumbling
Robert Baird’s analyst, Benjamin Kallo, says the factory tour convinced him the cost of batteries for Tesla are already half what the rest of the industry is paying and are continuing to fall faster than anticipated.
Maybe most importantly, given Tesla’s more obvious external advantages in the marketplace, are the cultural items the report unveiled. Baird Senior Research Analyst Ben Kallo spoke to Tesla’s unique, continuous improvement culture: “We do not believe this production process is one competitors can easily recreate.” This is a critical piece of insight given the way we have already seen Tesla transform service — moving it from an extremely negative experience into a positive one.
Tesla Motors factory visit: Report highlights falling battery prices, vertical integration, and self-driving technology
Goldman Sachs reported on changes at the Tesla factory: "They report that the factory has changed a lot since they visited the last time over a year ago. For example, they said the automaker has grown into the space it has and now is more fully utilizing it. In fact, they expect future expansions will result in non-assembly functions being moved to satellite facilities... The automaker is running about an 80% vertically integrated operation."
Battery technology and pricing improvements were also reported: "Also on their manufacturing tour, [Goldman Sachs analyst] Archambault and team found that Tesla continues to improve its battery cells in density, safety and duration, with some tests checking for more than 1,000 cycles to improve duration. They noted that although the automaker doesn’t specifically outline exact costs, representatives said $200 per kilowatt-hour is about where they are right now, and they’re targeting less than $100 per kilowatt-hour per pack."
Keeping in mind that the Chevy Bolt has a 60kWh pack (Cell Cost $145 per kWh) pack cost at least $160 per kWh, and that an extremely conservative figure for Tesla Pack would be $130 per kWh:
$200 - 35% (30% GF + 5% cell) = $130 per kWh
So worst case it would cost Tesla $1,800 less for the same pack size.
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