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Yeah I think you are right. I was just wanting to emphasise how much learning there was still to do in places less adapted to cars than the US. I will be very excited to see how quickly Tesla's superior OTA fleet learning approach deals with all these corner cases and the huge regional...

Yes absolutely, but it is even worse, I think. In Britain, for example, you would expect Brits to park on some country lanes and many residential streets for lack of any alternative convenient off-road parking. But amazingly, there are many Brits who have the attitude that simply because they...

Thanks for confirmation, Malcolm. It shows your inference is correct. It's what I was hoping for.

I am interested to learn the exact wording and context where Musk said that. Was it during an interview? I am well aware of this tweet: Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk Mar 31 "Thanks for tuning in to the Model 3 unveil Part 1! Part 2 is super next level, but that's for later…" but not that Musk has...

Disagree because: Each reservation could mean one less ICE made. Each reservation is a 0% interest loan to Tesla. Each reserver will evangelize M3 while waiting for their delivery. So far reservations have only come from early adopter types (not main stream car buyers). Early adopters will put...

Probably he means in terms of $ value.

Just updating my earlier information. I received the Tesla email 2 mins ago! So please disregard my first thought...my afterthought is still valid, though.

Thanks Johan for asking and thanks DrJohnM for posting the email. The email presses all the right buttons (in my guess at how April might unfold). I'm in the UK and so far I have NOT received this email (though I do receive many other emails from Tesla). So my first thought was... perhaps the...

On the other hand if SP floats up to ATH on sizzle of reservations not steak of earnings, won't that embolden many to open new short positions? Those many could belong to the large group that believes resistance at ATH will be too strong so that SP will surely slump later (on negative EPS...

Not me Norse. But I'm sure those already motivated to own or control or lease out a fleet of M3s will be inadvertently evangelising to the not yet converted. All good!

If Musk can see Tesla eating Uber's lunch at any time in the future, then Uber is the last customer he wants to take orders from. So that is another good reason to limit each person to two reservations.

Thanks for your comment here. You have just awakened me to the possibility that this two M3 per person limit could be a hint to Musk's possible intention of soon closing off reservations at some yet to be announced cut off date. Then once the reservation list is actually closed, those who...

I wouldn't even dare to guess because there are opposing trends in play: Diminishing rate (of reservations per hour) because most early adopters who know of M3 have already reserved. Increasing rate because knowledge of M3 is still diffusing into the enormous population group that has never...

Musk said "closer" not "close". He is careful with word choice. Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk Mar 30 Tomorrow is Part 1 of the Model 3 unveil. Part 2, which takes things to another level, will be closer to production. That leaves him free to surprise! BTW, in a later tweet... Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk...

If Musk really does want to raise capital before 1Q ER, then April 2016 might unfold like this: STEP 1 Unveil Part 1 (done) Message for potential customers = VALUE Reservers are early adopter types. Cumulative reservation total increasing If Musk announces the date for Unveil Part 2 anytime...

I think Musk is being coy here using the word "closer" rather than "close". The former affords him the chance to bring it on sooner on any plausible tweet of a reason. I think that within a few days he will announce the date for unveil Part 2.

Another possibility to consider: he has good information in his hands, but stalls on its release to see where the market goes Monday, suck in a few shorts perhaps, and then release it at his moment of choosing (considering macro too) when he judges it will likely have the most positive effect...

I take your point in the main, but will add that their notes are loaded with self interest. That alone could motivate a note when the trajectory of the company isn't so clear (i.e. what exactly to put in their model?)...sort of taking advantage of the uncertainty. But yes you are right...they...

Interesting you say that...and of course I will oblige by not replying to you directly...no problem.

Lango, I think that with Musk you won't do well to look solely into facts, a record of what has happened and not what will happen. We have company announcements and statements which are much more useful for gauging company intent. But going further to try to gauge company intent, I look for...

Yes, Kruggerand, agree on China...nevertheless an error of doing business not foreseen by Tesla management. On the laughing stock, yep agree there to a point also. He actually enjoys being a laughing stock because he has so much courage in his convictions that he knows he'll get the last...

If we get good enough Q1 deliveries, I will then comment very clearly why that might not be delusional at all and just for the record today, I will say 5m minimum and 20m maximum. Of course, 20m reservations isn't just pulling the rug out from beneath the ICE OEMs, it is totally removing the...

To your question on the analysts: Obviously we can have no way of even guessing what information Musk has given analysts. My guess is that Musk is keeping them very much in the dark deliberately. April will be Musk's month...no doubt about that in my mind..he has information to hand that he...

Your post is very reasonably argued. So much that I get it. However, I am pleased that Musk is in tight twitter control of the Tesla story at this point. It is a hugely bullish signal to me and a vindication of my expectations pre-unveil. It indicates Musk is swinging for the fences! (he didn't...

Yes Johan, that is indeed the simple answer in its most digestible form. Most understandable to most of humanity. I would say that Musk has a habit of telling the public, Tesla shareholders, and Tesla car owners, only what they need to know when they need to know it. If he would get carried...

Thanks Rafael. Yes your view is in the majority among 'post-the-mosters' to this thread. I like getting my head kicked in by you guys. It has been very useful to help build confidence in my own judgement on how I see things unrolling from here. In fact, since the unveil, I have realised that I...

Now that some seem more open to discussing a capital raise before Q1 ER, I picked up yesterday's post by Julian. Nice to see you speculate about a raise soon (rather than H2 which you argued for recently for reasons of cash flow and de-risking). Also, got fun out of your list and your line...

It is starting to look obvious that there is an unpublicised agenda up to Q1 ER. Thereafter it is open to much more speculation. Edit] Look at it the other way round. If he wanted to raise before before Q1 ER, what would you expect him to do now? My answer: exactly what he is doing now.

He is pumping because he can..to get as many reservations as possible..so he can raise before Q1 ER.

Yep...well said The consumer has recognised the chance to escape for the first time ever from the clutches of the racketeers. It'll take a while, but they are voting with their money. Unbelievably powerful signal in that. The denial script has now been torn up.

Really, really like this bit of prose, Julian, and the content therein.

I look at it like this. Control must rest in the hands of Musk. He has never had as much control over anything as he has today. The stores will not be allowed to say anything off their own bat. Musk will only let numbers out (whether store orders or online orders) when they are suitably into...

30seconds, I think your comment is to me not MitchJi's very good OP. I'll bite, but not a big junk to try to keep it short: Why buy a bigger anything? Yet people who buy added range range and performance get an EPS at no additional price. As to complication..no it is in fact simpler to...

Well, I am both nice and dim (most here agree with the latter, can't know the former). So I will go on record to say. If there is a deadline announced for reservations to have convertibility to configure for the performance variant(s) of M3, thereafter I would expect the running tally of...

Thanks for that last paragraph, and I REALLY mean it! It helps me understand your perspective! In my perspective, think of it this way: Assume online reservation is a massive number (which you don't, it seems?) Then how long will it take TM to deliver that massive number of reservations? Many...

Julian, I think most who post here are greatly underestimating reservation numbers if the M3 will be shown to have enough 'wow' about it. (Won't expand here but just say I did in reply to Lango in this thread a few minutes ago.) My point being: If reservation numbers are staggering (yes that is...

The first line you used. Lango said: "It is possible Model 3 won't do much for the stock but as a long term fundamental investor you don't know when the push upwards will happen and when the market will start "to get it"." Don't know how the stock will move of course, except in the general...

Sorry, Lango, have to disagree here. April 01 is going to be seen very quickly as "end of denial day". The penny will drop in different minds at different times. But the ground will have shifted considerably by the end of April. Complete reset of the automotive landscape in 30 days! It will...

Thanks MitchJi for the OP above: (don't know if this will post correctly...2 attempts to post were lost when the site went down last night) I agree the features of M3 will be off the scale as far as compelling goes. I won't list them. I'll just describe one possible knock-out feature. It...

IMO, much more of a sensation if TM imposes a cut-off date for reserving the performance version. I have just started a new thread wherein the OP (which is very short) explains how the incentive to reserve could be massively boosted. (x10?) Starts off about model X, and speculates about a new...

Good point...yes it would but XP90D cars are already out in the wild with presumably the potential to be XP100D. Tthere has been a lot of speculation in the short term thread about whether the battery pack is already 100kwh and will convert up from 90kwh with a software upgrade or if something...

Thanks ...now I see what you are suggesting...but what a hassle time wise to shuttle back and forth to superchargers for the pleasure of dumping a few free (not if you count your time!) kilowatt hours into serving what may be less than 10% of your house's peak load, and having wires running...

Thanks for persisting MikeC Could we be talking past each other in a funny sort of way? The grid will never be connected electrically with the large extension lead coming out of the back of the X or I suggest Performance M3...not even through a breaker...absolutely no electrons between car and...

Fallenone, your valuable comments (thanks!) to my "What If.." thread led me to a less "unlikely" idea on which I started another thread. I would value any criticism, yours especially, if you can spare a moment to check it out. The message is surprisingly short and simple. If plausible (still a...

Thanks for your interest, MikeC,..... If you recall, the scrapped version of the Powerwall was not the 'daily cycler' it was the Emergency Power Supply version. The version which may form part of the M3 Performance package (a WAG!) is intended for exactly that same EPS purpose as the scrapped...

Efficiency of wiring you mean?...well, I'm thinking you run one heavy duty wire into your house which terminates into multiple sockets, which you then plug a few household appliances into...a bit like what happens on a building site. Edit]...local supercharging? not sure I follow...mostly an...

I'm thinking an Emergency Power Supply...as you would otherwise use a back-up generator. When I've had a power outage I've never felt too worried about efficiency! I would just want fridge/ freezer/lights/chargers etc working.

Is that because there is a physical constraint which prevents it? Interested to know why you answered that way... Could the volume of the recess not hold a 10kwh battery pack?

Not vehicle to grid but vehicle to appliance. In an outage, unplug from the wall and plug the appliances you want to keep running into the "powerwall" in the X... or M3, if you read to the end.

I have just started another thread. It's relevant to this thread. The message is surprisingly short. It may interest you.