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How does it take 4-6 months for new reservations?

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Narekzo, May 25, 2018.

  1. Narekzo

    Narekzo Member

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    It's so weird how my delivery is being delayed to July (ordered the car on May 6) but with all these delays, it somehow takes 4-6 months to get the car for a new person. Is there an explanation for this?
     
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  2. Thunder7ga

    Thunder7ga Member

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    Being I’m a late reservation holder I am wondering the same.
     
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  3. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    Belief is that the delay to July has to do with Tesla staying below 200k sales to extend tax credits an additional 3 months.
     
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  4. Jdperich

    Jdperich Member

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    You have to figure that a lot of reservations are probably in countries that are not being delivered to yet and also with the production ramp the wait is shorter.
     
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  5. goto10

    goto10 Member

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    Production has ramped up dramatically lately so the current reservation projections are going to be much shorter than the older ones. That's not to say they won't end up getting pushed back if the higher production level can't be maintained or if projected increases in production don't come to fruition. With Tesla it's generally just a bad idea to count on any date they provide.
     
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  6. Narekzo

    Narekzo Member

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    Yea so thats what I'm saying if the wait is shorter now why's mine taking longer than expected. Or do you think July is just an estimate and I might get mine in June?
     
  7. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    There have been a few reports of people getting the July email but getting scheduled delivery in June so there is always the possibility but better off assuming July and be pleasantly surprised if it changes.
     
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  8. SpiceWare

    SpiceWare Member

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    S-Curve. Sure it ramped up later than expected, but as it does...

    DF4I-geVYAAC5RY.jpg-large.jpeg
     
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  9. MissyMcBee

    MissyMcBee Member

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    How is ordering your car May 6th with a July delivery a 4-6mth delay? REally? Sounds more like an 8-12 week delivery.
     
  10. SpiceWare

    SpiceWare Member

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    by

    Narekzo's referring to this:

    Screen Shot 2018-05-26 at 10.12.19 AM.png
     
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  11. MissyMcBee

    MissyMcBee Member

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    I get that but you said your delivery is in July and just ordered in May....
     
  12. SpiceWare

    SpiceWare Member

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    Think you're mixing us up, mine was ordered April 6th with delivery in 4 days on May 30th.

    With an early May order, Narekzo's original ETA was most likely mid-June. It was pushed back to July, as such they're wondering how it's possible for somebody who hasn't yet put their $1000 down to have an ETA of only 4-6 months.
     
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  13. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    The backlog is no longer 500,000. Not even close.
     
  14. DanL3

    DanL3 Member

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    First, 4-6 months is Elon time. That is, It's an optimistic estimate. Most likely it will be pushed back as the time gets here. This timing statement is a "Sales Tool" to get new reservations. Some of the people that will not reserve for a 8-12 months lead time will reserve for 4-6 months. Tesla Sales is doing their jobs trying to sell as many cars as possible.

    Second, and I think this is more important for us who have reservations, I take this to mean that Tesla will priority ship the first production cars until all reservations have the opportunity to configure. They will meter out the higher profit cars like performance but not add any other options like SR or other interiors until all reservations have the opportunity to configure. I think this includes the new reservations that will be placed under the 4-6 month "promise".

    By the way I also think the S curve will turn into a hump. That is, Tesla will overshoot production compared to what the car will eventually sell on an ongoing basis and then have to pull production back for a while before they are able to match production to sales.
     
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  15. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    And yet, some see this as acceptable, instead of seeing it for the unscrupulous tactic that it is. Elon certainly has normalized this, eh?
     
  16. jeffhre

    jeffhre Member

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    HA ha, when did scheduling the manufacturing and delivery of cars become pure skulduggery...I wonder if johnny Depp would play Elon in the movie version? Does Amber heard have a role?
     
  17. Glamisduner

    Glamisduner Active Member

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    I was wondering the same thing. If you order now it's only a 4-6 month wait, but if you ordered a year ago, it's still going to be a 2-4 month wait :( At least that's what my delivery estimator says.

    Well I don't think I'll be ordering by July, because 1st day line waiters are just getting their configurations now... I'm a year behind but only have a 2-4 month wait? My guess is that my delivery date estimate will be changed again for the 3rd time, and the game will begin again for new purchasers.

    I think I will be lucky get have my car before next year.​
     
  18. McRat

    McRat Well-Known Member

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    None of it lines up.

    There are supposedly over 250,000 reservations in North America, based on the recent claim of over 500k globally.
    So are they going to produce all those prior reservation cars in 4 months? Over 60,000 a month?

    Or are they going tear up the reservation log and start from scratch today?

    Some say it has to do with the Federal Tax Credit expiration, but Tesla has not said that, and that flies in the face of a "4 month wait". Yes, I'm allow to use the lower value since they must have a possible path to 4 months or they would use another number, like 5 months.

    Nor do we know if they will extend the EV credit yet like California does constantly.

    What we do know it that it will be unlikely that a new buyer who reserves today will have a car delivered in 6 months from now unless they delete the existing queue order.
     
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  19. SpiceWare

    SpiceWare Member

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    Sure it does, only First Production has a 4-6 months ETA for new reservation holders, as you can see in the screengrab I posted the other configurations have an ETA of up to a year from now.
     
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  20. McRat

    McRat Well-Known Member

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    There are still First Day, First Production reservations, thousands, who have not been invited yet. I'm one of them. There could be 200,000 or more of them to go through.

    ie - they have not finished processing the first 24hr of reservations by a long shot. Not even close. Then they have to process the other >100,000 US reservations after Apr 1. Or they just abandon all the reservations prior to May 2018.
     
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