Ik kwam een aantal interessante uitspraken van Elon tegen, in een verslag over de jaarlijkse aandeelhoudersvergadering. Hieronder een aantal citaten daaruit. Ik vond vooral de uitspraken over V6 interessant, automatisch rijden (min of meer). Ergens is ook nog ergens gesproken over nieuwe steviger, sportieve stoelen. Retrofit mogelijk. Enfin, hieronder genoeg leesvoer. Meer discussie in de thread waar de quotes uit komen..
Elon is on.
Stats:
- 344 million miles driven with no serious injury or fatality, despite some "pretty crazy crashes."
- 126 retail locations
- 77 service centers
- 11x superchargers (couldn't see the last digit)
- He wants people to like their Model S more than their house.
- Excited about upcoming software which will personalize the car a lot more.
- The car will learn your behaviour, alerting about traffic, calendar integration, etc.
- Will use crowdsourced traffic info, will add other data sources.
- Have introduced improved the hardware (battery shield, parking sensors)
- Sales have been "pretty good"
- Production limited, with battery cells biggest constraint
- Will steadily ramp up, with some step changes in the number of cars produced
- Approaching 30% gross margin
- The value of the options is slightly reducing (to approach ~$95,000)
- Stores and service centers will grow by 75% in 2014
- Superchargers will grow by 200%
- Really focused on establishing the supercharger networks internationally
- Gigafactory: advanced in planning, optimistic that a minimum of 30% reduction in costs for battery, he thinks it's conservative
- He feels good about the partnership with Panasonic, daily meetings
- At first Pana weren't sure they can achieve those reductions, now they think they can
- Now showing the Model X
- The production car is better than the concept
- It was very difficult to accomplish this, but they wanted to make a car that would blow people away
- The second row seats were challenging. He is really focus on creating a "Wow" experience when people open the door; the seats should be worthy of being in a museum
- Dual motors
- Production second half 2015
- With Gen3 he expects $35k with > 200 miles range
- Equivalent with a gasoline car in the ~$25k
- The Gigafactory and the tooling for the G3 must move in sync for delivery in late 2016
- Tesla coast-to-coast now possible by "admittedly circuitous route"
- Guinness world record for the fastest trip LA-NY in an electric car
Question time
---------------
Q: Since the Toyota deal fell through and they use FCV, what is your outlook on the competition with fuel cell?
A: The deal stopped because we are cell-constrained. We may circle back in a year or two once this is solved. That's we need the Gigafactory. Fuel cells are "fool cells". Any storage tech should provide a big advantage. Fuel cells aren't used in cell phones OR satellites for a reason.
Q: A lady points out that many women want to buy a Tesla, but many women who have that buying power are older and shorterCould you make the car friendlier for women (she cannot reach the pedals)? We are the majority after all!
A: You're right, we may be too guy-centric with the S, we'll remedy with the X.
Q: Tesla merchandise: any consideration to improve the range of that stuff?
A: Yes, will do.
Q: Will you able to ramp up production beyond what you expect now?
A: We'll do our best to ramp up as rapidly as we can and see what the demand limits are (not there yet).
About seats: will offer upgraded seats this year, available as retrofit as well. Made subtle improvements to seat comfort (the foam, springs, lumbar support.) He agrees seats weren't that great before.
Q: Why did you abandon Model E name?
A: Initially we were like, we have S and X, we might as well make it the "E". It kinda stuck, even if though it was a joke. Considered Model Y, too. Ford threatened to sue over Model E ("Ford is killing sex!"). We are in the application process so we can't comment yet on the new name, but it's pretty good.
Q: You were planning to step down as a CEO at some point? Can you comment? Who would replace you?
A: Nobody can stay on forever. In my case, it's difficult to be CEO of 2 companies, and it was never the plan. I've committed to stay on at least until volume production (4-5 years from now), and depending on how it's going at that time, he'll keep going, but only if he won't face burnout. That's his current commitment at a minimum. Will re-evaluate.
Q: Follow-up: "I'm a supergenius as yourself. [...] Can you give me a second look?". Musk: what do you mean? "I want to come on as vicepresident of Tesla, or CEO". Musk: "Let's move on..."
Q: To advance the long term goal, would you open up the network to other manufacturers?
A: The intent is not for a walled garden. Other manuf. must produce cars able to absorb those kinds of power levels (135kW). Nobody has approached us, but we want them to. They'd have to contribute to the capital costs, but we're very open.
Q: ... missed
Q: How do you balance the desire of electrifying transportation by having other successful manufacturers with your fiduciary duty?
A: It's surprising that the other manuf. still only make compliance cars. He was hoping for more. He doesn't think others' success would be to the detriment of Tesla. The car market is enormous, there is room for everyone. It would take 20 years to replace the fleet at current rates of prod. Tesla makes a tiny percentage, they're still trying to move to the next decimal point in market share. He's thinking to make a decision on Tesla's patents, didn't elaborate.
Q: Dual carbon batteries? Can the GF be retooled for this kind of battery?
A: Every day a new kind of battery is announced. The filter to assess these is: energy density (in contrast with power density.) The problem with dual carbon is low energy density (20% of current density). Range and cost per unit energy are the important factors. There are other potential breakthroughs, but we have yet to see one functioning in our lab. My response is: please send us a sample cell! Never got one.
Q: I recently drove an i3. Model S is much better, but I was impressed by the level of interest from consumers. Gen3 is so late, what are the constraints?
A: To create a compelling mass-market car we need a lot of batteries that don't cost too much. The GF is vital for that level of vol. and for reducing costs. There will be innovations in the cell as well as monster economies of scale. The soonest we can do that is late 2016. We could produce a better i3 today, but it wouldn't be great, just ok.
A: We're doing two states for the GF, we may do three. We'll select one site before the end of the year.
A: It would be straightforward to retool the GF for other anode/cathode. We expect to do that, actually.
Q: When will we get a new Roadster?
A: We are planning an update for it, we're hoping to do it this year. We'll do something before the end of this year. A next gen roadster is 5 years away.
..... I lost connectivity :-(
Q: I'm taking delivery in July. In the long term, S&P rated your debt as junk. What do you think is the best move for Tesla to make the stock an even better value?
A: S&P rating: we expected they'd do that, because from their perspective they look in the rear view mirror. They just look at the GAAP from the past. To be expected, because they look backwards. The equity markets look forward. That's why we did convertibles. The long term: lot of potential for stock growth. What would Tesla look like if it produced .5 mil cars, what is the ASP, what is the Net Present Value of future cash flows, etc. With multiple factories around the world, there is potential for Tesla to become the largest company in the world. In the medium term, impossible to predict. The market is manic-depressive. It depends on market's confidence in Tesla's execution. We can't do anything about the volatility.
Q: Would you have lunch with me?
A: Appreciate the request, but I am time constrained.
Q: Autograph?
A: Sure, ok.
Q: (an 11-year old) I invested in Tesla last year (applause.) Can I have a tour of the factory?
A: Absolutely!
Q: (DaveT) What's after Gen3? With 100 mil vehicles per year, is Gen3 gonna be enough to propel the world to electric vehicles, or should there be an even more affordable care available (sub-$30k). Would that be the same platform?
A: We'll do whatever it takes to accelerate adoption. Gen3 it's the holy grail, because affordable cars are not compelling, and the compelling are not affordable. That's what Gen3 brings. Beyond that, we can think of additional steps, it would make sense to go into trucks, and probably into something cheaper.
Q: What's Lathrop about?
A: We're setting manuf. to supply Freemont because we can't produce 500k and be as vertically integrated as we are now.
Q: [Can't hear the question. About insider sales]
Q: Tesla has the best range, but it's still not enough. I live in Tahoe, come to the Bay Area often, so the challenge: to make Tahoe to Bay Area and back.
A: We could do it now, but it would be very expensive, but you should expect improvements in range over time.
Q: (from Taiwan) There are many suppliers in Taiwan. You want to make cars affordable. Could you share more details about partnerships with Foxconn?
A: It's a promising relationship, we'll always be a manufacturer, but they can help us accelerate.
Q: There were complaints in China about shortages. What will you do worldwide to alleviate this?
A: We're going as fast as we can, I told the team to spend as fast as they can as long as they don't waste it.
Demand is not our issue.
Q: Can you tell us about autopilot?
A: We're making progress. I'm confident that in a year you can go from highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls.
Q: The Nissan Leaf has an affordable car. What's your competitive advantage?
A: Leaf's range is quite low, not competitive with gasoline cars. Tesla will be competitive there, we hope Nissan will be too.
Q: When will we see Model X delivered? [Something about the milliamp rating per cell.]
A: ...
Q: Is it possible that Tesla would participate in the ??? rally?
A: We are not interested in racing because that's demand generation and we're focused on increasing production.
Q & A has ended.
The proposed resolutions are resolved in line with what the board recommended.
The end.
