Larger solar panel or power wall?

[kulea]

I was skimming over the Hawaii proposal and it sounds like almost everyone can qualify for like $850-$1000 per kWh storage credits or something insane. Maybe someone from there can comment since they are probably more interested in the law there than most of us here to spend the time.

The program you refer to is best utilized by those of us with traditional NEM. Basically, we agree to give X kW of electricity from our battery to the grid (or home use) for 2 hours EVERY day during peak hours (sometime between 6 and 8:30 pm) for 10 years; e.g. for 1 powerwall, you give 5 kW for 2 hours for a total of 10 kWh per day. In exchange, you are given $850 per kW upfront ($4250 for that powerwall), and $5 per kW per month bill credit ($25 per month for that powerwall). Over the 10 years, the monthly credit amounts to $3000 for the powerwall. So, in exchange for using up much of your battery every day, you are getting $7250 total from the utility. Combined with federal and state tax credits, the powerwall can be pretty much free. You can opt out at any time, but have to pay back a prorated part of the $4250. The reason it is best for NEM is that they only guarantee a 1:1 retail rate credit for the electricity you send for 3 years. After that no one knows how much the self-supply folks will get, but us NEM folks are grandfathered to get retail, presumably as long as our system lasts. The other nice thing was they allowed NEM folks to add PV to their system (which previously forced you to end NEM). One reason for this program is that there was zero financial incentive for an NEM customer to ever get a battery, since the grid is effectively their battery. The NEM folks without time-shifting use, were adding to grid instability. With a major coal plant closing, the utility needed to make up for the loss during peak hours, until replacement plants come online. Encouraging NEM folks to get a battery and time shift helps relieve both problems. Us NEM folks don't really gain much financially over what we had, but we get a free battery that can be used as backup (when charged).

NEM for new systems ended in Hawaii a long time ago. The self-supply folks have to have a battery anyway (or have a very small PV system, since they can't export during the day). For them, there is another battery reward program which is much more similar to a VPP. I don't know the details, but it is less lucrative.

 

[ptdusn]

I think batteries were never an ROI part of the equation for me, but I think with the wholesale value of energy sent back to the grid being worthless, batteries are probably now a requirement to even consider solar at all since the alternative is very high rates during the evenings/late afternoons, you will never build up any credits to cover winter months/cloudy days so the alternative is solar+storage or be at the mercy of whatever the IOUs do with no solar. Solar alone is simply no ROI and a waste of $$ probably.

The whole point of NEM3.0 I think is really trying to be completely grid independent. This is easier inland So Cal I think since there is simply a lot more sun here and you don't have the morning gloom/fog the coast has.

I was skimming over the Hawaii proposal and it sounds like almost everyone can qualify for like $850-$1000 per kWh storage credits or something insane. Maybe someone from there can comment since they are probably more interested in the law there than most of us here to spend the time.

Now that it's winter, we are putting 12-14Kw a day back into the grid for the last 21/2 weeks seeing the A/C is not running. I am going to wait until January to call SRP to put us on the budget payment plan as waiting till then will drop our payment down to about $40

 

[Xpert]

We have 2 EVs and all our appliances are electric except for the furnace and water heater.

With NEM 3, batteries will be required to make solar cost effective.

got my model Y. surprisingly, my wife who has always hated Tesla due to FUD, loved my model Y and ended up with a model 3 as well!
Unfortunately, Tesla's roof assessment yesterday said roof (front roof where solar is planned to be placed) needs to be replaced. Now I'm not sure if I should still try to get the roof replaced, then install solar, hoping to beat NEM3, or just give up at this point and deal with the 2 EVs...the electric bill is going to be nuts! wondering what other options we have

 

[Zorg]

got my model Y. surprisingly, my wife who has always hated Tesla due to FUD, loved my model Y and ended up with a model 3 as well!
Unfortunately, Tesla's roof assessment yesterday said roof (front roof where solar is planned to be placed) needs to be replaced. Now I'm not sure if I should still try to get the roof replaced, then install solar, hoping to beat NEM3, or just give up at this point and deal with the 2 EVs...the electric bill is going to be nuts! wondering what other options we have

Time to do math!! With PGE or SDGE, you're looking at an average cost of 30c plus per KWh and this guaranteed to go up. With Tesla solar panel, PW and federal incentives, you should be able to average 10-12c per KWh over 20 years. So even under NEM3, it should be a money saver.