Musk's focus on innovation instead of 'moats' give me confidence this will come true, check out 4min in:
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Looking for a repeat of the 2012 Tsunami of Hurt
- Thread starter TalkTezla
- Start date
Musk's focus on innovation instead of 'moats' give me confidence this will come true, check out 4min in:
TrendTrader007
Active Member
definitely! I remember CMGI very well. I started trading in 1998 and was making $5000 per day randomly day trading with zero clue of what trading is about. NSOL network solutions and emulex were my hot stocks. I would have made a fortune in NSOL had I done things right, with my current knowledge base. in any case, I was a total idiot so I well deservedly lost $40k in 2000 crash. back then $40k was a lot of money. so I got frustrated and bought myself a brand new BMW 5 series and gave up trading for a few years. then, one day I was seeing patients in my Clinic and suddenly on a whim put $100k in GOOG in Feb 2005. long story short, like every trader/investor I have had a steep learning curve. now that I have 20 years of trading/investing experience I know exactly the kind of stock to buy.
I have 164% of my entire net worth invested in a single stock called TSLA and I am about to make the biggest trade of my lifetime over the next 3 to 5 years and shorts will help my cause
TrendTrader007
Active Member
cool! got it. I just followed you. thanks
I traded tsla several times since 2014, to my great regret never bought in 2013. I last sold it in November 2016 at $182 right at the bottom with well over a million loss. I waited exactly 30 days then bought it all back on December 19, 2016 or 22nd I don't remember the exact date at $205. I started huge position to begin with but then I also bought about 300 calls over the last 2 years and still holding all of them expiring in Jan 2019. on top of that I kept on buying common stock like crazy over the last 1.5 years and by highest buy was right at the top at $386 in June 2017 right after I returned from a vacation in Paris. I got a few margin calls and lost in excess of 3000 shares but then I kept on buying despite the risk of margin calls and my last buy was yesterday 1000 shares at $307 or so. my average cost basis, not counting margin interest I pay is approximately $267 or $268. I'm paying about $23,000 a month in margin interest. my entire net worth is in TSLA and not counting my 300 calls I have a 164% exposure to TSLA.
I love the fact that TSLA is the single most shorted stock in the entire US Stockmarket. I totally love that EM just bought $10million day before yesterday. that motivated me to extend my already super leveraged long position in TSLA
I believe TSLA is NOT to be traded. this stock is a buy and hold for the next 3 to 5 years UNLESS it goes up 10X or more over the next 2 to 3 years OR space X IPOs whichever comes first
TrendTrader007
Active Member
exactly!I have not really given that much thought and don't have any specific price targets in mind as a buy and hold investor. I personally believe the stock could increase 10-30X over the next 5-10 years so I am not in any hurry to sell.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
if there is a short squeeze that runs it up like VW/Porsche in 2008 (unlikely but not outside the realm of possibility) then I will sell ALL my stock and calls. on the other hand, and as I strongly suspect, if TSLA ramps up at a 60 to 75degree angle instead of near vertical 90 degree then I will use the TIME element as recommended by the great Jesse Livermore
bottom line, it all depends on the circumstances but as a general rule follow NVDA chart over the last 5 years and that will give you an idea of the possible course TSLA might take
at the very least
being super conservative LOL
This sounds like a major position given the net worth you're describing... man I think I'm risky sometimes, but this sounds deep! Good luck. I think you've picked a winning horse.
Its great that you have so much confidence in TSLA....i guess go big or go home, however i would probably diversify just a bit instead of risking the chance of losing everything you've ever owned and having to start all over again. If im guessing right, you're probably in your mid 40's so time is definitely of the essence here.
Hey I've had many discussions with friends about how much money is the right amount to "retire". The answers I get vary widely... and by retire I don't mean the amount to stop working and sit around all day, instead I mean how much money are people comfortable having in order to leave a typical 9-5 / regular work week to pursue interests / passions like Tesla for example where monetization isn't necessarily the top priority. I'm curious with the resources you're describing what is your driving force to continue speculation at the level you are? I'm sure you have enough resources that you're already not working a typical 9-5, but why incur so much risk? What are you trying to achieve?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Basically trying to maximize my potential. A few years ago I would have said becoming a billionaire but now basically just trying to see how far I can go
I just turned 50 a few months ago and now everything has changed
I’ve lost all ambition
I no longer care about becoming a multibillionaire
A few hundred millions will do
Yeah TT is a gambler. I am debt allergic, risk averse, and have no outside income, so I only have 1/3 of my portfolio in TSLA. I don't trade on vacation but when I get back if prices are still this cheap I am buying more.
It's an interesting question to me because I "retired" straight out of college. (Not counting investment, which is work, but not full time work.). The correct answer is to work out how much after-tax money you need per year for your desired lifestyle and hobbies, leaving some margin for forgotten costs, multiply by a factor to account for projected capital gains taxes in the future, divide by 4% to 8% depending on your safe investment withdrawal assumptions to get the amount of capital necessary to reliably generate that much income, and add any upfront capital costs of your preferred lifestyle (if it needs a house in Aspen or whatever).
If you are risk averse you never ever should invest 1/3 of your portfolio in a single stock...
You don't know much about investing, as we know from your other comments. Please refer to the works of Warren Buffett ("put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket") and Peter Lynch (who refererred to "di-worse-ification") if you wish to learn.
You also don't know how large my portfolio is: bluntly I could lose 1/3 of it and still be set for life so I am really not taking major risks.
Good for you. I wish you a lot of luck and fun.
BTW: I read books of Lynch and Warren long ago (probably forgotten their wisdom
). And in contrast to you I worked all my career in investment management managing bn $ portfolios and funds successfully. Now early retired and enjoying life.
I agree if you are in capital preserve mode, but if you are trying to grow capital, you can put everything in one stock, monitor it and protect the downside with puts. T
Well, good for you. You don't want to hear my views on paid investment managers; suffice it to say I think there's an inherent conflict of interest and a successful career as an investment manager does not correlate well with success for that manager's clients.Good for you. I wish you a lot of luck and fun.
BTW: I read books of Lynch and Warren long ago (probably forgotten their wisdom
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Gotta celebrate even the smallest wins!
Checkout all of our videos here: TalkTesla
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