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Looking for a repeat of the 2012 Tsunami of Hurt

I'm new here. I've been a fan of Tesla since 2010, investor since 2012 and Model 3 reservation holder since April 1, 2016. I found myself spending a lot of time following the company in the evenings after work, so I finally decided to start a new YouTube channel and share my thoughts. I launched 1 week ago and have so far pushed out 3 videos. I have to juggle work and my 3 year old, but I'm hoping to continue making content. I'd really appreciate it if you would take a look and share your thoughts. Thanks so much, Jonathan

My $1,000,000 Tesla Mistake! (TSLA)

7 Key Takeaways from Tesla Q1 2018 Earnings Call

Tesla Short Sellers Beware! (TSLA)
 

TrendTrader007

Active Member
Sep 4, 2016
1,749
10,672
USA
totally awesome videos but unable to find them on youtube despite multiple efforts
I ended up tweeting them
curious:
what price did you buy back your Tesla shares
how long do you plan to hold
how high of a SP you suspect
as an aside, my $7million mistake was $BIDU
I bought over 5000 shares at $300 a share in 2008 (long before a 10 to 1 split)
sold it at $200 in October 2018 at $205 for a $500K loss because I was on margin and got super scared
despite the fact that I was super confident that it would Bottom at $100
that is exactly what it did
and then it went up 16X over the next 3 years or so
and split 10 to 1
so if I had held them my 5000 shares would have been 50,000 shares worth $165 each worth $8 million or so
I got numerous real life stories including $CMG $GOOGL etc
[email protected] on twitter if interested
good luck to you
 
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Yea I'm on twitter @TalkTesla I followed you.
I hold shares ranging from 2013-2018, current average price/share roughly $235, I've had some amazing buys perfectly timed recently when the stock dipped in the $240s, and then some bad buys when it was climbing into the high $300s, I was convinced it was going to cross 400, but then we hit the production snag! Oh well, we'll get there.
 

dhanson865

Well-Known Member
Feb 16, 2013
5,045
11,826
Knoxville, Tennessee
Nice first video. The production quality was better than I expected (not flawless but still very good).

I think you should learn the difference between Loop and Hyperloop and mention the Boring Company name.

Loop is the one that will reduce traffic in general (air in the tunnels, less cost and risk, easier to use for short routes feeding into the biggest routes). Hyperloop is about speed and is more costly. Hyperloop would only be used for the biggest routes, less flexibility, practically no air in the tunnel or above ground tube (not vaccum but close to it).

Another one to mention if you are on the Musk makes everything train is Starlink which is a SpaceX product to bring low cost internet to the entire planet. Should be a game changer.

I saw a report a while back (maybe a TED talk) that said Solar PV generated electricity would be the most plentiful and cheapest in Africa (I'd like to find it and link it for you).

Imagine the lowest cost of electricity coupled with earth wide internet. You could move data centers there and save money vs running them in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Australia. I'm not saying every data center will relocate, just that money will flow to Africa if they become the low cost electricity provider with a proper robust internet connection. Of course that sort of shift is a decade or more away.
 
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EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,341
21,888
NorCal
I watched the first video and thought it was terrific. Look forward to seeing more in the future.

As far as selling too soon, you have a lot of company since that is one of the most common investment mistakes people make, according to Daniel Kahnemann and other behavioral finance wizards.

Another very common mistake is holding on to losers too long (shorts I'm talking to you:)).

Disposition effect - Wikipedia
 
Nice first video. The production quality was better than I expected (not flawless but still very good).

I think you should learn the difference between Loop and Hyperloop and mention the Boring Company name.

Loop is the one that will reduce traffic in general (air in the tunnels, less cost and risk, easier to use for short routes feeding into the biggest routes). Hyperloop is about speed and is more costly. Hyperloop would only be used for the biggest routes, less flexibility, practically no air in the tunnel or above ground tube (not vaccum but close to it).

Another one to mention if you are on the Musk makes everything train is Starlink which is a SpaceX product to bring low cost internet to the entire planet. Should be a game changer.

I saw a report a while back (maybe a TED talk) that said Solar PV generated electricity would be the most plentiful and cheapest in Africa (I'd like to find it and link it for you).

Imagine the lowest cost of electricity coupled with earth wide internet. You could move data centers there and save money vs running them in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Australia. I'm not saying every data center will relocate, just that money will flow to Africa if they become the low cost electricity provider with a proper robust internet connection. Of course that sort of shift is a decade or more away.

Thank you, and Haha, I was waiting for someone to point out that the Boring Company is the one that will reduce traffic, congrats! I actually recorded the audio earlier and said Hyperloop incorrectly.. then I was like crap I don't want to record again so I put a hyperloop pic in there and went with it.
 
I watched the first video and thought it was terrific. Look forward to seeing more in the future.

As far as selling too soon, you have a lot of company since that is one of the most common investment mistakes people make, according to Daniel Kahnemann and other behavioral finance wizards.

Another very common mistake is holding on to losers too long (shorts I'm talking to you:)).

Disposition effect - Wikipedia
Tesla makes it easy to make that mistake, yea I'm learning quickly that I'm not the only one. For most of my investing over the past several years I've just talked among friends in person, but just recently I decided it would be better to join in the discussions online and I'm finding there are many like me.
 

M|S|M MYP

Active Member
Supporting Member
Feb 20, 2018
3,443
34,057
USA
totally awesome videos but unable to find them on youtube despite multiple efforts
I ended up tweeting them
curious:
what price did you buy back your Tesla shares
how long do you plan to hold
how high of a SP you suspect
as an aside, my $7million mistake was $BIDU
I bought over 5000 shares at $300 a share in 2008 (long before a 10 to 1 split)
sold it at $200 in October 2018 at $205 for a $500K loss because I was on margin and got super scared
despite the fact that I was super confident that it would Bottom at $100
that is exactly what it did
and then it went up 16X over the next 3 years or so
and split 10 to 1
so if I had held them my 5000 shares would have been 50,000 shares worth $165 each worth $8 million or so
I got numerous real life stories including $CMG $GOOGL etc
[email protected] on twitter if interested
good luck to you

I have 4 letters for you CMGI...if you traded during the dot gone era....you'll know exactly what im talking about. My biggest mistake was selling apple at $600 before it went to a 7:1 split.....i would have 4900 shares today worth $186 = $911,000.....made $150k on it but lost out on $500k in additional profits..now CMGI made me a ton and almost gave it all back....but you live and learn....Now that im older....i follow Warren Buffet's strategy, dont buy a company unless you're willing to hold it for at least 10 years....served me well since i started following that rule.
 
Now that im older....i follow Warren Buffet's strategy, dont buy a company unless you're willing to hold it for at least 10 years....served me well since i started following that rule.
Yea I hear you on that. I previously traded TSLA more regularly and although I made a substantial amount between 2013-2014... the short term gains and missed increases in value made it not worth it. I'm now in the buy and hold camp.
 
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I watched the first video and thought it was terrific. Look forward to seeing more in the future.

As far as selling too soon, you have a lot of company since that is one of the most common investment mistakes people make, according to Daniel Kahnemann and other behavioral finance wizards.

Another very common mistake is holding on to losers too long (shorts I'm talking to you:)).

Disposition effect - Wikipedia

Thank you for this highly informative post. I agree with you on both points. What do you think is the right price, say in early 2019 if all goes according to plan and a short squeeze ensues at some point, is the right price to start considering selling the stock?
 

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,341
21,888
NorCal
Thank you for this highly informative post. I agree with you on both points. What do you think is the right price, say in early 2019 if all goes according to plan and a short squeeze ensues at some point, is the right price to start considering selling the stock?

I have not really given that much thought and don't have any specific price targets in mind as a buy and hold investor. I personally believe the stock could increase 10-30X over the next 5-10 years so I am not in any hurry to sell.:)
 
I have not really given that much thought and don't have any specific price targets in mind as a buy and hold investor. I personally believe the stock could increase 10-30X over the next 5-10 years so I am not in any hurry to sell.:)

Thank you; I agree with your estimates.

If, however, in the off-chance that a short squeeze runs it by 10X in a year, then I'm not sure if another 3x in four to nine years justifies staying in and riding it through a potential recession in 2019. Something to keep in mind imo, but I understand many bulls will likely not sell.
 
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EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,341
21,888
NorCal
Thank you; I agree with your estimates.

If, however, in the off-chance that a short squeeze runs it by 10X in a year, then I'm not sure if another 3x in four to nine years justifies staying in and riding it through a potential recession in 2019. Something to keep in mind imo, but I understand many bulls will likely not sell.

If it runs up by 10X in a year I would be tempted to sell some and retire to a nice beach somewhere.:)

But I would not sell it all.

@TalkTezla does a nice job summarizing some of Tesla's current products and product plan. But one thing that is difficult to quantify but critical for the long-term is Tesla's unparalleled ability to innovate and create compelling new products and new businesses from the ground up.

When I initially invested in late 2012, the Model S gave me great hopes for Tesla's EV business, but Autopilot/Tesla Network, Powerpack/Powerwall, Solar Roof, Tesla Semi, etc. were not on my radar at all -- I suspect the same is true for @TalkTezla and most other investors. With its current product line and plan, Tesla is a completely different company than it was then, with far more opportunities than I imagined in 2012.

If it can continue innovating (and I think it can), who knows what new innovations and entirely new businesses Tesla will create in the next 5-10 years. There is a foundation in place for potential Tesla AI, Tesla Flight and Tesla Media businesses if Tesla chooses to pursue them, and there could be others. I look forward to watching it all unfold.
 
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If it runs up by 10X in a year I would be tempted to sell some and retire to a nice beach somewhere.:)

But I would not sell it all.

@TalkTezla does a nice job summarizing some of Tesla's current products and product plan. But one thing that is difficult to quantify but critical for the long-term is Tesla's unparalleled ability to innovate and create compelling new products and new businesses from nothing.

When I initially invested in late 2012, the Model S gave me great hopes for Tesla's EV business, but Autopilot/Tesla Network, Powerpack/Powerwall, Solar Roof, Tesla Semi, etc. were not on my radar at all -- I suspect the same is true for @TalkTezla and most other investors. With its current product line and plan, Tesla is a completely different company than it was then, with far more opportunities than I imagined in 2012.

If it can continue innovating (and I think it can), who knows what new innovations and entirely new businesses Tesla will create in the next 5-10 years. There is a foundation in place for potential Tesla AI, Tesla Flight and Tesla Media businesses if Tesla chooses to pursue them, and there could be others. I look forward to watching it all unfold.

That makes great sense. Thanks! Good to know. I built in a section in my DCF for "other," but it comprises only 10% of 2025 revenue, which will likely prove conservative. In any case, it's good to be conservative with projections, but keep in mind that Tesla can innovate beyond what's known and expected today.
 
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