Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Mars and Off Planet Colonization - Pros and Cons Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.

daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,732
5,508
Kihei, HI
... I am all for humanity becoming multi-planetary. ...

I believe this is a sci-fi-inspired pipe dream. There are no worlds (planets, moons, dwarf planets, etc.) in our solar system where human life is sustainable without artificial habitats and space suits, and there are no worlds in our solar system where the conditions and resources exist for a self-sustaining colony even with an artificial habitat. And the nearest other solar system is light-years away, meaning thousands of years of travel for humans to reach. And sci-fi aside, you have to explore a place robotically and build habitats robotically, before you send colonists. Without magic, other solar systems are off the table.

My version of "doing anything useful off-planet" was more about ensuring that we don't experience another Chicxulub. We could also consider robotic collection of resources, space solar, and so forth, but as a species, we aren't even close to having our act together. I'm not even sure that additional resources would be a good idea given that those resources will just allow us to screw up things faster (e.g. oil). Ultimately, to make sure that humanity is safe, we need to address the flaws in our own nature. We're our own worst enemy, and expanding to other planets isn't going to change that. We'll just be our own worst enemy while living on multiple planets. Yay us.

Which is just one more reason why a Mars colony is doomed to failure: People quarrel and then they fight and then they split off in to factions. On Earth, the losers can migrate elsewhere. On Mars even assuming a colony could be sustained in the short term, eventually some disaffected person will sabotage the entire colony in an act of revenge-suicide. One small hole to the outside and everyone suffocates.
 
Any correction will be temporary because if we go to Mars we will master Mars. By nature, we don't want to endure a harsh and deadly environment (it makes raising children difficult), so we change that environment to be more amenable. That's the beginning of the end. As the environment becomes more comfortable, less responsible people can survive more easily. This is a pattern as old as time. The United States itself went through the very process that you guys are talking about; a harsh environment demanding that people be capable and responsible.
Humans lived and thrived in what is now the United States for at least 15,000 years before the European colonizers arrived.

Mars is obviously fundamentally different. Despite what Elon likes to portray, “terraforming” Mars may not be possible and the colonists will always have to live in enclosed pressurized structures, donning suits for “outside” excursions. But achieving that is just an engineering problem. And humans are amazingly adaptable to new environments.
I believe this is a sci-fi-inspired pipe dream. There are no worlds (planets, moons, dwarf planets, etc.) in our solar system where human life is sustainable without artificial habitats and space suits, and there are no worlds in our solar system where the conditions and resources exist for a self-sustaining colony even with an artificial habitat
You are very sure of your conclusions. Just 150 years ago, “experts” confidently stated that “flying machines” were impossible. Rockets to orbit were just a Jules Verne fantasy, which no one took seriously.

Of course ”artificial habitats” will be required on other planets. Modern humans overwhelmingly prefer to live in “artificial habitats” here on Earth; they are commonly known as “houses”. Many people spend the majority of their lives inside; their home, work place, car. Their time “outside” is just a small fraction of each day.

Space suits will of course be needed. They exist today, and they can certainly be improved upon. That’s an engineering problem, not an unsurmountable barrier.

There will be many Martian colonists who will gladly accept living in pressurized structures, and their children will consider it normal.

What we can accomplish over just the next century or two is hard to envision now. When I am up in my local mountains I often look out over the metropolitan area where I live and think about how none of the human structures that now cover the land existed just 180 years ago. There were thousands of people here back then and they had constructed dwellings, but from my high up vantage point none of them were likely visible back then.

The pace of change is accelerating. No one reading this today will be alive in 2132 but it would be short-sighted to assume humans will not be permanently living off Earth by that time.
 
Last edited:
Humans lived and thrived in what is now the United States for at least 15,000 years before the European colonizers arrived.

Mars is obviously fundamentally different. Despite what Elon likes to portray, “terraforming” Mars may not be possible and the colonists will always have to live in enclosed pressurized structures, donning suits for “outside” excursions. But achieving that is just an engineering problem. And humans are amazingly adaptable to new environments.

Every place that humans have effectively colonized has had air at around 1 ATM, has had abundant potable water, has had plants and animals suitable for food and clothing. Mars has an atmosphere 1% as thick as earths, it has no liquid surface water, only some ground water and water tied up in minerals, and all of it saturated with deadly perchlorates, and it has nothing edible. There is no suitable analogy to express how much more hostile Mars is than the most hostile environment on Earth.

Humans have adapted to a very narrow range of temperatures, and they've adapted to a change in food sources. But notably, colonies get established because people want to get away from enemies or despotic rulers, or they get established because their home nation wants the resources in a far-away place.

There is nothing on Mars that colonists could use to pay the costs of getting there and establishing themselves. They would need supplies from earth for at least a hundred years, and probably forever, and there's nothing on Mars that would be worth more on Earth than the cost of transportation to get it here. They'd have no way to pay for anything they'd need.

You are very sure of your conclusions. Just 150 years ago, “experts” confidently stated that “flying machines” were impossible. Rockets to orbit were just a Jules Verne fantasy, which no one took seriously.

"They laughed at Fulton" is not a valid argument. The vast majority of times that experts have said something was impossible, it was.

And FWIW, nobody with any scientific credibility said that flying machines were impossible. What they said was that a flying machine would require a motor with a better power-to-weight ratio than yet existed. And they didn't say that rockets to orbit were impossible. They said that they would have to burn X amount of fuel in Y amount of time, which was not technologically feasible until the 1950's.

Of course ”artificial habitats” will be required on other planets. Modern humans overwhelmingly prefer to live in “artificial habitats” here on Earth; they are commonly known as “houses”. Many people spend the majority of their lives inside; their home, work place, car. Their time “outside” is just a small fraction of each day.

And people famously become stir crazy when they are unable to go outside and breathe fresh air. Prospectors snowed in for the winter and convicts held in solitary confinement go bonkers. The lack of an effective atmosphere and magnetosphere will require settlers on Mars to spend all their time underground, and cosmic rays will severely limit the amount of time anybody can go outside in a space suit. A Mars habitat will be a prison with no exercise yard. If we want to spend more money than it would take to eliminate poverty world-wide we can establish a research station where people commit to a year on Mars, plus transit time. But there's nothing there that could pay for a self-sustaining colony. There is no possible resource on Mars that would be worth enough on Earth to pay for shipping it back. And the colonists would have access to extremely limited medical care. Drugs would take months to get there, diagnostic machines would be unavailable. You'd have medical care equivalent to a 19th-century country doctor with his black bag.

Space suits will of course be needed. They exist today, and they can certainly be improved upon. That’s an engineering problem, not an unsurmountable barrier.

There will be many Martian colonists who will gladly accept living in pressurized structures, and their children will consider it normal.

What we can accomplish over just the next century or two is hard to envision now. When I am up in my local mountains I often look out over the metropolitan area where I live and think about how none of the human structures that now cover the land existed just 180 years ago. There were thousands of people here back then and they had constructed dwellings, but from my high up vantage point none of them were likely visible back then.

The pace of change is accelerating. No one reading this today will be alive in 2132 but it would be short-sighted to assume humans will not be permanently living off Earth by that time.

And all those structures were built under an open sky of breathable air, on land with potable water, in country capable of producing food.

One more note on "terraforming": Nowhere in the history of humanity have people succeeded in POSITIVE large-scale changes to the environment. We only make it worse. If we cannot even keep the Earth habitable, how are we supposed to make Mars habitable?

A research station on Mars is possible, at an obscene cost. A self-sustaining colony is not.
 
@daniel
may I suggest you spend a bit less than 4 minutes and watch that short movie, somewhat narrated by Carl Sagan, the link is in msg 374
pay close attention to the narration starting at 1 minute, 19 seconds for perhaps a dozen or so seconds

If that does not change your perspective, well, show it to your children or grandchildren
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grendal and Sandor
Every place that humans have effectively colonized has had air at around 1 ATM, has had abundant potable water, has had plants and animals suitable for food and clothing. Mars has an atmosphere 1% as thick as earths, it has no liquid surface water, only some ground water and water tied up in minerals, and all of it saturated with deadly perchlorates, and it has nothing edible.
Well, I did say “Mars is obviously fundamentally different.” Maybe you missed that part.
Humans have adapted to a very narrow range of temperatures
Humans have lived on the Moon for days. The Moon has a more extreme temperature range than Mars, by far.

It’s an engineering problem, and a solvable one.
colonies get established because people want to get away from enemies or despotic rulers, or they get established because their home nation wants the resources in a far-away place.
That is a very limited view of human exploration. Again, you are restricting yourself to recent history. From the time that the first humans walked out of Africa, they spread to every part of every continent on Earth (except Antarctica) in less than 20,000 years just by walking.

Humans are explorers, and have been doing so long, long before nations existed.
and probably forever
That remains to be seen.
And FWIW, nobody with any scientific credibility said that flying machines were impossible. What they said was that a flying machine would require a motor with a better power-to-weight ratio than yet existed.
People were saying human flight was impossible before engines (not “motors”, those are electric) existed.
And they didn't say that rockets to orbit were impossible. They said that they would have to burn X amount of fuel in Y amount of time, which was not technologically feasible until the 1950's.
Again, people were saying that humans would never leave the planet long before anyone understood the basic physics involved in achieving orbital velocity.
And people famously become stir crazy when they are unable to go outside and breathe fresh air.
You might want to check with astronauts like Scott Kelley before you jump to that conclusion.
 
One more note on "terraforming": Nowhere in the history of humanity have people succeeded in POSITIVE large-scale changes to the environment.
Of course they have. Agriculture resulted in the ability to feed large numbers of people and meant that not everyone had to spend all their time looking for food, meaning that some people had time to invent new tools, develop writing systems, look up and try to better understand the heavens, and in general do all kinds of useful things. All of that was POSITIVE for humanity while certainly effecting the environment in a big way. The environment didn’t start to suffer until just a few centuries ago when the human population started shooting up past a few billion and fossil fuels were discovered, among other developments.

You look into the future and make the assumption that all the current negative trends will continue and inevitably worsen. That is a false conclusion. I tend towards pessimism myself, but I’m not that pessimistic. :confused::)
 
@daniel
may I suggest you spend a bit less than 4 minutes and watch that short movie, somewhat narrated by Carl Sagan, the link is in msg 374
pay close attention to the narration starting at 1 minute, 19 seconds for perhaps a dozen or so seconds

If that does not change your perspective, well, show it to your children or grandchildren

I watched the video. It's very poetic. It would make an excellent opening for a sci-fi/fantasy movie. It completely fails to address the practical obstacles to establishing a self-sustaining colony where there's no air, no magnetosphere, no soil, no life. And it ignores the costs. Who's going to pay?

Humans have lived on the Moon for days. The Moon has a more extreme temperature range than Mars, by far.

Yes. Days! And not a self-sustaining colony. If we want to spend a truly obscene amount of money we could do the same for Mars: Send a few people to Mars, and if absolutely everything goes perfectly, bring them back again alive, to live severely-shortened lives due to the ravages of cosmic rays.

Even Antarctica, which is orders of magnitude less inhospitable than Mars, does not have a self-sustaining colony. It has research stations which get everything they need for survival from the outside, other than water, which Antarctica has in abundance, and air, which Antarctica has because it's on Earth. People stay there for a season to do research and then return home.

Nations will send astronauts to Mars for the bragging rights. Nobody's going to pay the cost of building a permanent colony (orders of magnitude greater than the already obscene cost of a few astronauts) unless there's something in it for them, and there's nothing on Mars that's worth enough on Earth to pay the exorbitant cost of bringing it back.

Sci-fi enthusiasts dream of what's possible, and more often they dream of the impossible (FTL travel and transporter beams, Earth-like planets with Earth-like atmospheres and English-speaking humanoid aliens). But they never consider economics. A colony on Mars, living forever underground, and supported in perpetuity by supplies sent from Earth is "possible." But economics points out that somebody would have to pay. And nobody is going to. Dreams of wanderlust don't pay bills. Resources that are worth more than the cost of extraction and transportation pay the bills.
 
I watched the video. It's very poetic. It would make an excellent opening for a sci-fi/fantasy movie. It completely fails to address the practical obstacles to establishing a self-sustaining colony where there's no air, no magnetosphere, no soil, no life. And it ignores the costs. Who's going to pay?


Yes. Days! And not a self-sustaining colony. If we want to spend a truly obscene amount of money we could do the same for Mars: Send a few people to Mars, and if absolutely everything goes perfectly, bring them back again alive, to live severely-shortened lives due to the ravages of cosmic rays.

Even Antarctica, which is orders of magnitude less inhospitable than Mars, does not have a self-sustaining colony. It has research stations which get everything they need for survival from the outside, other than water, which Antarctica has in abundance, and air, which Antarctica has because it's on Earth. People stay there for a season to do research and then return home.

Nations will send astronauts to Mars for the bragging rights. Nobody's going to pay the cost of building a permanent colony (orders of magnitude greater than the already obscene cost of a few astronauts) unless there's something in it for them, and there's nothing on Mars that's worth enough on Earth to pay the exorbitant cost of bringing it back.

Sci-fi enthusiasts dream of what's possible, and more often they dream of the impossible (FTL travel and transporter beams, Earth-like planets with Earth-like atmospheres and English-speaking humanoid aliens). But they never consider economics. A colony on Mars, living forever underground, and supported in perpetuity by supplies sent from Earth is "possible." But economics points out that somebody would have to pay. And nobody is going to. Dreams of wanderlust don't pay bills. Resources that are worth more than the cost of extraction and transportation pay the bills.
@daniel
1) again, go and listen to that video from about 1 minute, 1 second, to about 1 minute, 25 seconds
2) what is the name of this specific forum
3) most of us are not the restless few
4) If you say something is impossible, you are correct for your worldview, many others have differing worldviews, some feasible, some not
edit:
5) having read Science Fiction for 2/3 of a century, I would suggest you may also consider do so, to be exposed to other worldviews
6) Karen Rei has a nice prepub article referenced a few pages back about, essentially, cloud cities on Venus in the habitable zone
7) of course it will be expensive
 
Last edited:
I have read and watched a lot of sci-fi. I enjoy sci-fi. I do not regard it as a true picture of the future. Nowadays most sci-fi is actually fantasy since it violates very-well-established laws of physics, which is why I'm not a fan of some of the popular space fantasy. I enjoy sci-fi that is actually scientifically plausible, and sci-fi/fantasy that does not take itself seriously. Galaxy Quest is a good example of the latter.

And I distinguish between things that are economically impossible (a self-sustaining colony in a place that has no useful resources), things that are physically impossible (FTL travel), and things that are possible but would be so obscenely expensive that only a psychopath would seriously advocate funding them (a large-scale Mars colony paid for by the people who remain on Earth.)

Humans are not going to magically change just because you set them down on another planet. Until and unless we learn to conserve the environment of the Earth we will not be able to sustain life elsewhere.

I'm familiar with the proposal for floating habitats in the clouds of Venus. They might be slightly less impractical than settlements on Mars, but they're still ridiculously impractical. And like Mars, there are no resources there to sustain them physically or economically. A research station there might provide interesting science. A self-sustaining colony, no.

what is the name of this specific forum

Are you suggesting that only people who think off-planet colonization is possible should participate here?

Or is my mistake thinking that anybody here thinks it's possible? If this is actually a sci-fi/fantasy thread, I apologize for thinking it was supposed to be a serious discussion about the subject.

SpaceX is an amazing company that has achieved big things in low-Earth space launches. That's a far cry from Elon's insane notions about Mars. Didn't he once advocate terraforming Mars by setting off H-bombs there?
 
Or is my mistake thinking that anybody here thinks it's possible? If this is actually a sci-fi/fantasy thread, I apologize for thinking it was supposed to be a serious discussion about the subject.
This thread is intended to be a serious discussion about the subject.

I do think Elon’s objective is possible, though unlikely to succeed. But definitely worth attempting.

We’ve both stated our positions. So, can we agree to disagree? :)

* I also enjoy science-based sci-fi. The Martian, for example. Also, 2001.
 
  • Like
Reactions: legendsk
This thread is intended to be a serious discussion about the subject.

And I am seriously discussing why I believe that (1) A self-sustaining off-world colony is impossible because the economics don't work; and (2) It is unethical to spend the obscene amount of money it will take to send people to Mars and bring them back with their health severely damaged, for the bragging rights of being able to say "We did it; we're the best."

I do think Elon’s objective is possible, though unlikely to succeed. But definitely worth attempting.

We’ve both stated our positions. So, can we agree to disagree? :)

If "agreeing to disagree" means that I'm supposed to quit criticizing a proposal I feel is unethical, then, no, we can't. If "agreeing to disagree" means acknowledging that we disagree, then of course we can, though I'd have though it goes without saying. We disagree about Mars colonization. There, we've agreed about that.

* I also enjoy science-based sci-fi. The Martian, for example. Also, 2001.

The entire book & movie is founded on a fake "fact." A windstorm threatens to knock over the rocket. This would not happen in the Martian atmosphere. It continues with the stranded astronaut constructing a pressurized habitat out of plastic sheeting and duct tape, which is just plain silly. And then he grows potatoes in soil so contaminated with perchlorates that nothing would actually be able to grow there.

The only "science" in that whole book/movie is that the word "science" is used as a facade over what I felt was a rather boring fantasy. He says "I'm going to have to science the hell out of this," or words to that effect, and then proceeds to ridicule science itself by doing stuff that simply would not work.

And the ending was as ridiculous as a Jason Statham movie. The main difference is that Statham movies are intentionally ridiculous and don't claim to be scientific.
 
What do you call a place that:
Imports 80% of its energy
Is mostly populated by colonists
Has minimal mineral deposits
Relies on tourism as its major source of revenue
Generates less that $2 Billion worth of manufacturing
Regularly destroys infrastructure via natural events
Has as high or higher cost of living and cost of housing than anywhere in the US.
Is only accessible by long range transportation
But has an atmosphere?

Hawaii
 
  • Funny
Reactions: legendsk
And I am seriously discussing why I believe that (1) A self-sustaining off-world colony is impossible because the economics don't work; and (2) It is unethical to spend the obscene amount of money it will take to send people to Mars and bring them back with their health severely damaged, for the bragging rights of being able to say "We did it; we're the best."



If "agreeing to disagree" means that I'm supposed to quit criticizing a proposal I feel is unethical, then, no, we can't. If "agreeing to disagree" means acknowledging that we disagree, then of course we can, though I'd have though it goes without saying. We disagree about Mars colonization. There, we've agreed about that.



The entire book & movie is founded on a fake "fact." A windstorm threatens to knock over the rocket. This would not happen in the Martian atmosphere. It continues with the stranded astronaut constructing a pressurized habitat out of plastic sheeting and duct tape, which is just plain silly. And then he grows potatoes in soil so contaminated with perchlorates that nothing would actually be able to grow there.

The only "science" in that whole book/movie is that the word "science" is used as a facade over what I felt was a rather boring fantasy. He says "I'm going to have to science the hell out of this," or words to that effect, and then proceeds to ridicule science itself by doing stuff that simply would not work.

And the ending was as ridiculous as a Jason Statham movie. The main difference is that Statham movies are intentionally ridiculous and don't claim to be scientific.

What do you call a place that:
Imports 80% of its energy
Is mostly populated by colonists
Has minimal mineral deposits
Relies on tourism as its major source of revenue
Generates less that $2 Billion worth of manufacturing
Regularly destroys infrastructure via natural events
Has as high or higher cost of living and cost of housing than anywhere in the US.
Is only accessible by long range transportation
But has an atmosphere?

Hawaii
1689791339947.png

notice anything between 2010 1nd 2019?

1689791410968.png
 
What do you call a place that:
Imports 80% of its energy
Is mostly populated by colonists
Has minimal mineral deposits
Relies on tourism as its major source of revenue
Generates less that $2 Billion worth of manufacturing
Regularly destroys infrastructure via natural events
Has as high or higher cost of living and cost of housing than anywhere in the US.
Is only accessible by long range transportation
But has an atmosphere?

Hawaii

Hawai'i is on track to be energy-independent in a couple of decades. My home and car are already 100% solar. Many of my neighbors are as well. I read that Maui is already getting 20% of its electricity from wind. I can see the West Maui Mountain windmills from my home. (Not today, though: Calvin has brought clouds low over the mountain. I should be able to see them again by tomorrow.)

An economy based on tourism is very susceptible to all sorts of problems. I am a strong advocate for a greater degree of economic independence, not least because tourism is bad for the environment. We're also starting to grow more food here, on the land that used to be used to grow sugar cane. The transition has been way too slow, but it's happening. Before colonization the indigenous Hawaiians were 100% self-sufficient, though they didn't have internet or modern medicine. I like having modern medicine. Mars tourism, or even LEO tourism is not a threat to our tourist industry, though I wish it were. Fewer tourists would be a good thing. And with proper management we could grow the bulk of our own food here.

I will note, however, that the cost of a round-trip plane ticket to Hawai'i from mainland U.S. is around 300 USD, and from Asia is around 700 USD. A trip to Low Earth Orbit is around fifty million USD. And I imagine a trip to Mars and back will be around fifty trillion USD. Mars tourism, or even LEO tourism, is not a threat to our tourist industry, though I wish it were. Fewer tourists would be a good thing. And with proper management we could grow the bulk of our own food here.