May invites - no new invites after shutdown?

[Waiting43]

It's weeks since production was restarted after the brief shutdown (only 3-4 days?) and there's obviously been a ton of new VINs awarded, some close to the 30K mark, according to Bloomberg. However, we haven't seen a lot of new invites to configure lately, and no new threads for May invites.

If stories like these are true (Tesla suppliers start to see higher volumes from Model 3 production ramp up), there should be a whole lot of new invites in May.

Anyone?

 

[Marsnaut]

They are likely fulfilling their current backlog. I think most people have been falling out of the 3-6 week delivery time frame so they are working on that before sending out new invites.

 

[McRat]

It's weeks since production was restarted after the brief shutdown (only 3-4 days?) and there's obviously been a ton of new VINs awarded, some close to the 30K mark, according to Bloomberg. However, we haven't seen a lot of new invites to configure lately, and no new threads for May invites.

If stories like these are true (Tesla suppliers start to see higher volumes from Model 3 production ramp up), there should be a whole lot of new invites in May.

Anyone?

^I was curious also. May-July has been partially serviced, then it seemed to stop. Many of these were Nov-Jan at first. They haven't bumped the estimates yet, but at this stage, I can't see how May-July can be serviced by Aug 1. There were 180k reservations in the first 24 hrs. Unless there is a very high deferral rate, I think they need to bump again if they know the target cannot be hit at this time. It's just manners. If you say you will be there on a given date, and know you can't make it, you tell folk you are going to be late.

Example - McMaster Carr is not the cheapest source for industrial supplies, yet I continue to use them for the last 25 years. Why? If they tell me Wednesday, the parts will arrive Wednesday at the latest. I just ordered gages Monday, they said next week, and they arrived Tuesday. It's common and it keeps me loyal since I don't have to second source critical items.

Amazon is getting a smaller percentage of our business today. Why? Because they used to be 2 day reliably, and now they are all over the place, with about 50/50 chance of 2nd day. And they make stupid excuses. "You weren't open, so we couldn't deliver" when we were open, then tracking shows it wasn't shipped until that day. So critical items must be second sourced with Amazon, so they become the second source. We spend in the 5 figure range with Amazon annually, so we are not a big customer, but we do quite of bit of >$1000 orders. That's not enough to trip their trigger.

Quote worst case, deliver early, and you have happy customers. I'd be out of business if I did not take that approach, since someone else will take my place.

 

[Moderatefan]

It's weeks since production was restarted after the brief shutdown (only 3-4 days?) and there's obviously been a ton of new VINs awarded, some close to the 30K mark, according to Bloomberg. However, we haven't seen a lot of new invites to configure lately, and no new threads for May invites.

If stories like these are true (Tesla suppliers start to see higher volumes from Model 3 production ramp up), there should be a whole lot of new invites in May.

Anyone?

A lot of these are going to Canada, they are the ones getting 29K VINs per the spreadsheet.
People who waited for weeks in US after configuration are also getting their VINs.

 

[Teslie]

Waiting43‘s post was related to new invitations...

 

[jtpassat]

If I had to guess, they are holding off invites to ensure they hit their 200k build in Q3.

 

[TT97]

I'm guessing it could do with the planned 10 day shutdown. Tesla doesn't want to send out invites and then have them delayed 2 weeks due to the shutdown. My guess is the next big batch will be late May/early June for July deliveries (once no longer constrained by the 200k barrier).

 

[Teslie]

I'm guessing it could do with the planned 10 day shutdown. Tesla doesn't want to send out invites and then have them delayed 2 weeks due to the shutdown. My guess is the next big batch will be late May/early June for July deliveries (once no longer constrained by the 200k barrier).

This makes sense to me. But the 10 days were including the first one in April, so I guess about 5 days again...

 

[vadimr]

I'm quite sure that nobody at Tesla has a real answer to a single timeline related matter. I called them regarding my 4/18 config today and after 30 minutes on hold I was told that all is good. Sure. I asked about estimated if they changed and they said no but also that they are only estimates and many people wait longer.

I recently took my GTI for some warranty work and asked them to look into wind noise. They said they test drove my car and then another customer's car and my car had less wind noise thus I'm fine. It's my favorite approach to a problem. It's not that hey yes it's an issue, more like nah there are other people with bigger issues.

 

[TT97]

This makes sense to me. But the 10 days were including the first one in April, so I guess about 5 days again...

You're right. I took a look at the Quarterly Update Letter and it does say 10 days including the previous shutdown.

The article I read said they are shutting down for 10 days with no mention being cumulative. FAKE NEWS!

 

[DanL3]

Tesla is used to "Build to order", so I expect that they did a lot of "Over invite" before the end of Q1 push so that they would know what configurations to build. Then they continued to build like crazy for a couple of weeks. I expect this confused their finished goods inventory with some configurations overbuild and others short. They are now sorting that out and have started "Build to order" to fill the remaining configured customer needs.

They need to change their mindset to "Build to forecast" in order to be cost effective. They are learning I am sure, but not there yet.

Anyway, we continue to see no new invites while Tesla builds to order the cars needed to deliver what is already configured. Then, in the future, we will see invitation batches even bigger than before. I do not expect these new invites until the end of May or first of June. They will, at the same time start higher production volume builds based on forecasted configurations. The end of Q2 push is for building cars. But those cars will not be delivered until July.

Delivering the end of Q2 push in July enables hitting 5000/week the last week in June and Holding off the 200,000 federal limit until Q3.

 

[vadimr]

Tesla is used to "Build to order", so I expect that they did a lot of "Over invite" before the end of Q1 push so that they would know what configurations to build. Then they continued to build like crazy for a couple of weeks. I expect this confused their finished goods inventory with some configurations overbuild and others short. They are now sorting that out and have started "Build to order" to fill the remaining configured customer needs.

They need to change their mindset to "Build to forecast" in order to be cost effective. They are learning I am sure, but not there yet.

Anyway, we continue to see no new invites while Tesla builds to order the cars needed to deliver what is already configured. Then, in the future, we will see invitation batches even bigger than before. I do not expect these new invites until the end of May or first of June. They will, at the same time start higher production volume builds based on forecasted configurations. The end of Q2 push is for building cars. But those cars will not be delivered until July.

Delivering the end of Q2 push in July enables hitting 5000/week the last week in June and Holding off the 200,000 federal limit until Q3.

Excuse me but what is built to order on the M3? Wheels and paint? I don't think it's very hard to predict those two.

 

[kgclark]

Tesla is used to "Build to order", so I expect that they did a lot of "Over invite" before the end of Q1 push so that they would know what configurations to build. Then they continued to build like crazy for a couple of weeks. I expect this confused their finished goods inventory with some configurations overbuild and others short. They are now sorting that out and have started "Build to order" to fill the remaining configured customer needs.

They need to change their mindset to "Build to forecast" in order to be cost effective. They are learning I am sure, but not there yet.

Anyway, we continue to see no new invites while Tesla builds to order the cars needed to deliver what is already configured. Then, in the future, we will see invitation batches even bigger than before. I do not expect these new invites until the end of May or first of June. They will, at the same time start higher production volume builds based on forecasted configurations.

Really though, the only variable for hardware build configuration is exterior color. And wheels, but those should be so simple, that short of supply issues, shouldn't be a factor.

 

[FloridaJohn]

Unless there is a very high deferral rate, I think they need to bump again if they know the target cannot be hit at this time.

There is a very high deferral rate. According to The Spreadsheet, about 21% of all invitees are currently deferring. The majority of them are deferring for AWD, but a lot are deferring for other options (different interior color, short range version, etc.).

 

[DanL3]

Really though, the only variable for hardware build configuration is exterior color. And wheels, but those should be so simple, that short of supply issues, shouldn't be a factor.

I think Most people do not understand the problems associated with these simple options.

For paint. They have to schedule a color into each paint booth. (Or most likely onto each paint line) It would then take them at least a half a shift(probably much more) to change the color. So planing the color and not making changes after the first drop of paint flows is very important to keeping the lines running at full speed. I expect they have multiple paint lines for the various colors but they do have to schedule color changes. Also they have to keep the paint flowing once it is started so they cannot just wait for the next car that is that same color and so this all takes planning.

As for Wheels, they order the Wheels at least 6 weeks before building the car. They need to order the tooling for the Wheels at least months before the wheels are made. The had to predict the split of 18 vs 19 inch wheels last November to get what they are putting onto cars today. And yes, they could swap out a set of wheels once in a while but they cannot plan on that at the factory. At 5000/ week you get a car every 2 minutes. Swapping out wheels at a tire shop takes 15 to 30 minutes. It is quicker and easier to let the car with the wrong set of wheels go and just wait for the next car with the correct wheels. Besides the real problem is that they did not order enough 18 in wheel tools last November to match the number of Aero wheels needed next week.

Finally Canada will be different, East coast will be different. Arizona and Los Vegas will do a lot more white, And in the future SR will take lower cost options.

 

[FloridaJohn]

I think Most people do not understand the problems associated with these simple options.

For paint. They have to schedule a color into each paint booth. (Or most likely onto each paint line) It would then take them at least a half a shift(probably much more) to change the color.

Robotic paint booths have been able to smoothly switch paint color between car bodies for at least 15 years. It definitely does not take “half a shift” to switch colors. Every car can be a different color from the one in front of it and the one behind it.

Here's a video of a robotic paint booth from eight years ago that mentions this feature 37 seconds into it.

 

[lapolak]

Curious — did anyone in the May - July range get an config invite?

 

[Monkey]

I’m betting they don’t blast out more invites until they see the results of existing deferred invitations once ordering for the dual motor and performance option open up. Those options opening up will most likely result in a surge of new orders with the existing invites.

 

[lapolak]

I’m betting they don’t blast out more invites until they see the results of existing deferred invitations once ordering for the dual motor and performance option open up. Those options opening up will most likely result in a surge of new orders with the existing invites.

Yeah... sounds logical. I was excited when I read about AWD being made available this week as I thought it meant they would send out another batch.

Then today I read that their scheduled May shutdown is scheduled for 6 days in the last week of May. Factoring in the shutdown and then figuring in the "2-6 week delivery" window, I suspect May-July invites to go out in early to mid June.

Hoping I'm wrong . Current car is barely hanging on

 

[Moderatefan]

One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that per spreadsheet Model 3 Invites #1 (Troy: There are a few identical files to avoid overcrowding)
There's only 19% deferral rate and the rest are configuring. (On Invites tab "Configuring vs Deferring"=
3242/751, i.e. % deferral= 751/3993=19%)

Supposedly, all day 1 and half of day 2 reservations have been invited. Plus 99% of owners regardless of date(which translate to 7% of all reservations per Links tab). That should be over 50% of total U.S reservations, which should translate to 100K+ (~50% of total ~450k reservations are U.S. and then 50% of that).
So, 81% of 100k+ should have configured, i.e. 81k.
Right? But only about 26K cars were produced so far
We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making

Does it mean 50k+ people are waiting on VIN?
Seems unrealistic they all will get deliveries in 3-6 weeks.

So, where is miscalculation in all this? Are there a lot more deferrals than 19% and spreadsheet is wrong? Honestly, it seems suspucious that so few people want SR or AWD... I would expect a lot more want SR for $35k.