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Model 3 Configuration Time Window

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LOL what sort of statement is that?

I'm not one of the most optimistic on this board, as I still have a hunch that mainly employee and maybe a few thousand customer cars will be delivered this year. But there is a line between being pessimistic and just being an internet troll, and you tip toe along that line. So I have to ask:

Are you short Tesla?

Nope. I have zero position in TSLA, short or long. It doesn't fit my investment risk profile.

I fully believe that Tesla will prioritize highly optioned cars at the front of the delivery queue, combined with geography, previous ownership, employee. It makes sense from a profit standpoint as a public company.

I'm also not sure that the stripped down model will be priced as low as $35K. That is to be determined, as it seems incredibly low for a company who has predominately sold vehicles at a much higher price point. There is doubt in my mind that they can make the transition to a lower cost platform, and get acceptable margins at this price point.

As an IT guy, I'm always suspicious of those who are wildly optimistic.
 
Wait months? I think some are going to be waiting years. I'll get everything but 'P' and 'L' as an option. I don't expect to get one until 2020.

I fully believe that Tesla will prioritize highly optioned cars at the front of the delivery queue, combined with geography, previous ownership, employee. It makes sense from a profit standpoint as a public company.

I'm also not sure that the stripped down model will be priced as low as $35K. That is to be determined, as it seems incredibly low for a company who has predominately sold vehicles at a much higher price point. There is doubt in my mind that they can make the transition to a lower cost platform, and get acceptable margins at this price point.

I cannot see them weathering the incredibly bad press and complaints that they would receive if someone that had reserved their car early had to wait over a year after production started just to get a base model. Especially after the perception when they released the model X.

Also, why would having produced expensive cars previously preclude them from being able to produce less expensive ones now?
 
I cannot see them weathering the incredibly bad press and complaints that they would receive if someone that had reserved their car early had to wait over a year after production started just to get a base model. Especially after the perception when they released the model X.

Also, why would having produced expensive cars previously preclude them from being able to produce less expensive ones now?

Until people configure, who knows how many have the expectation of a $35K car? 10%, 25%, 50%? How many would walk away if they can't get a stripped down model, and/or miss the Federal Tax Credit? No one knows, which is why this decision probably hasn't been made yet. So, if you have a large number of people in queue, who are willing to spend more money, why would you not take it? Let's say only 10% of Reservation Holders are extremely price sensitive? The noise from any PR will die off quickly. I don't think the press would be incredibly bad. I just don't.

There is simply too much profit potential here to ignore this. And if you are a shareholder, this is what shareholder lawsuits are made of, if a company ignores revenue potential deliberately.

Frankly, after Employees, Tesla should open up the Configurator to everyone to see what the option landscape looks like. Why wouldn't they to understand the market? It would make no practical, financial sense.

As far as the $35K price point is concerned, think of it this way. Tesla is going to produce a car that is 20% smaller than the Model S, and sell it for approx. 1/2 of the base price. The base Model S is already spartan on the interior, as it is. There are limits on how far you can de-content a vehicle. It's an enormous challenge, and it may be a long time before they are at an operational efficiency level in manufacturing and supply to make it work, or come even close.
 
There is simply too much profit potential here to ignore this. And if you are a shareholder, this is what shareholder lawsuits are made of, if a company ignores revenue potential deliberately.

We'll have to agree to disagree then. I don't think, given the accelerated production, that profit from selling the highly optioned ones first is as important as it would have been given a slower ramp up. We'll have to wait and see though - odds are we're both partially right and both partially wrong.
 
Until people configure, who knows how many have the expectation of a $35K car? 10%, 25%, 50%?

Actually there is some information out there. If you take a look at the model3tracker website the number of base units hovers around 7%. So your 10% guesstimate is probably close.

The base Model S is already spartan on the interior, as it is. There are limits on how far you can de-content a vehicle.

The cost of the interior is peanuts in comparison to the cost of the battery and construction method. (aluminum vs steel) that is where the majority of the cost has been shaved. Given the fit and finish of the average Model S/X, The model 3 should be about the same, good but not great.
 
I don't understand your question in context of your quote. You implied that Tesla will cheap out on the interior (de-content) in order to make a $35k version of the vehicle. I indicated that they don't really have to since there is more money to be saved by working on the battery and the construction method.

What does any of that have to do with ford?
 
I don't understand your question in context of your quote. You implied that Tesla will cheap out on the interior (de-content) in order to make a $35k version of the vehicle. I indicated that they don't really have to since there is more money to be saved by working on the battery and the construction method.

What does any of that have to do with ford?

You indicated that moving from Aluminum to Steel in construction was one of the major areas of cost shaving. My point was Ford moved from Steel to Aluminum in constructing the F-150 (and other vehicles) as weight savings. My question is do you think Ford gave up margin by using Aluminum? The answer is Ford spends $500 more per truck, using Aluminum vs. Steel. $500.

Ford's Switch to Aluminum F-150 Increases Costs $500 a Truck - PickupTrucks.com News

Tesla moving to Steel isn't saving them thousands of $$ per car. It just isn't.

Costs in battery reductions is yet to be proven. Perhaps when the Gigafactory is on-line, and in volumes. But not to start.
 
You indicated that moving from Aluminum to Steel in construction was one of the major areas of cost shaving. My point was Ford moved from Steel to Aluminum in constructing the F-150 (and other vehicles) as weight savings. My question is do you think Ford gave up margin by using Aluminum? The answer is Ford spends $500 more per truck, using Aluminum vs. Steel. $500.

Ford's Switch to Aluminum F-150 Increases Costs $500 a Truck - PickupTrucks.com News

Tesla moving to Steel isn't saving them thousands of $$ per car. It just isn't.

Costs in battery reductions is yet to be proven. Perhaps when the Gigafactory is on-line, and in volumes. But not to start.


Remind me again what any of the above has to do with the interior of the Model 3?

You keep inserting words in my mouth. I never said Major, i never said Dramatically, you used both of those terms and attributed to my posts. sigh... let me try again from scratch....

Tesla doesn't have to cheapen the interior of the Model 3, or use lousy materials. (Please note "have to", they may very well do so) because they have bigger ticket items such as the battery, the method of construction (of which the use of Steel instead of aluminum is one example i provided), electronics, and wiring, and on and on. All of which are bigger ticket items than the interior materials used in the car.