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Model 3 Performance Gross Margin

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Sep 1, 2018.

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What is Model 3 Performance gross margin?

Poll closed Sep 8, 2018.
  1. 30% or less

    11 vote(s)
    27.5%
  2. 30% to 32%

    2 vote(s)
    5.0%
  3. 32% to 34%

    4 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. 34% to 36%

    6 vote(s)
    15.0%
  5. 36% to 38%

    3 vote(s)
    7.5%
  6. 38% to 40%

    1 vote(s)
    2.5%
  7. 40% to 42%

    7 vote(s)
    17.5%
  8. 42% to 44%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. 44% to 46%

    3 vote(s)
    7.5%
  10. 46% to 48%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. 48% to 50%

    1 vote(s)
    2.5%
  12. 50% or more

    2 vote(s)
    5.0%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    I expect sales mix to remain favorable in the coming months, as potential buyers reach up to take delivery by year-end in order to qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit. Model 3 Performance delivery time is "less than 2 months" vs. 2 to 4 months for other variants. This upcoming phenomenon is why the following question is important:

    At an ASP of $77,000, including high take rates for EAP/FSD after Version 9, where do you estimate Model 3 Performance gross margin?
     
  2. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Munro & Associates estimated gross margin of $55,000 LR+PUP at 38%

    Model 3 Performance will soon command an ASP of $77,000 with Version 9 introducing FSD-exclusive features

    Assuming an incremental per-unit cost of $5k to $8k, the Model 3 Performance gross margin would come out to 43 to 48 percent

    ValueAnalyst on Twitter
     
    • Like x 1
  3. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,015
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    I just upped our second Model 3 order to a P AWD from a standard AWD. Trying to contribute to the cause while enjoying the fruits of the contribution!
     
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 2
  4. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    1,270
    Location:
    Southern California
    I'm going with 50+%, mostly because I think the incremental per unit cost is at or below $5,000. UBS put the cost of the SRM powertrain in the 3 LR at $4,500, so my guess for the FWD AC induction motor/inverter is one or two grand less. That difference will be offset by the larger wheels/tires, braking, and suspension upgrades, but all told I think the incremental per unit cost is still at about $5,000.

    Having said that, with free Supercharging and what I'm guessing will be higher warranty costs from the car being driven harder, I think the Performance cars will cost Tesla a little more in the long run, although even that shouldn't be a substantial difference.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. Heimdallr

    Heimdallr Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2018
    Messages:
    78
    Location:
    Zurich
    Hard to say. I picked 40-42% for Q3 2019 when they finish the Model 3 ramp and are much more efficient than today. Now it's less than 30% due to low labor productivity but then it could be anywhere from 40-50%. A year from now, there will be even more EAP/FSP uptake with Version 10.
     

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