Model S depreciation since Model 3 launch

[reserves]

Being from the UK where we don’t have the Model 3 yet, a lot of Mode S owners / potential owners are wondering what the impact of the Model 3 launch has had on used Model S prices.

So, since the Model 3 had been launched are the MS CPO prices the same or have they dropped? And what is the private market like?

Thanks

 

[LoveEV]

It's a completely different product, like comparing a bmw 3 series with a bmw 5 series. The depreciation would only really happen for the cars with the older Autopilot hardware AP1 and AP2 whereas AP2.5 is the latest and should support full self driving.

Also since Tesla's can be sent OTA over the air software updates the car keeps getting better e.g V9 and better autopilot and sometimes even unlocks more performance.

Have sent you a PM

 

[reserves]

It's a completely different product, like comparing a bmw 3 series with a bmw 5 series. The depreciation would only really happen for the cars with the older Autopilot hardware AP1 and AP2 whereas AP2.5 is the latest and should support full self driving.

I never said it wasn’t.

So are you stating there has been no drop in Model S prices due to the launch of the Model 3?

I’m looking for information on pricing rather than opinion of each car.

 

[LoveEV]

stating there has been no drop in Model S prices due to the launch of the Model 3

I am from the UK too so the best comparison would be someone from the USA to chime in or the actual depreciation curve. Though check this link: https://www.autolist.com/tesla-model+s-san+francisco-ca#sort_filter=distance:asc&section=news&s=a

There are only 3000+ Teslas on the road in the UK it's a niche market and prices should be fairly strong due to the brands presence. I don't see many Model S owner selling and moving to a model 3.

These video might help you?

model 3 depreciation:

model s depreciation:

 

[glide]

I never said it wasn’t.

So are you stating there has been no drop in Model S prices due to the launch of the Model 3?

I’m looking for information on pricing rather than opinion of each car.

Of course there has. Is it because the vehicles are getting older or because the model 3 is available? Hard to quantify.

 

[reserves]

Of course there has. Is it because the vehicles are getting older or because the model 3 is available? Hard to quantify.

Of course it’s hard to quantify but not impossible.

If someone was looking for an CPO and suddenly they have all dropped 10% I’d say it’s a great indicator.

In the UK the prices are a bit lower that they were on the Tesla site, plus there are now 10 cars where as before there would be 1 or 2. Not saying it’s because of the 3 as we do t have that yet.

Still keen to get someone’s opinion who’s been keeping an eye on prices.

 

[glide]

Of course it’s hard to quantify but not impossible.

If someone was looking for an CPO and suddenly they have all dropped 10% I’d say it’s a great indicator.

Not really. Any price drop could be due to the fact the AP hardware in the vehicles is getting old, the vehicles themselves are getting older, Tesla is not refurbishing vehicles, the CPO sales process is awful etc...

Sorry, but what you are asking is pretty difficult to gauge based on Tesla’s sales model. Tesla does not price used cars based on what the market will bear.

 

[reserves]

Not really. Any price drop could be due to the fact the AP hardware in the vehicles is getting old, the vehicles themselves are getting older, Tesla is not refurbishing vehicles, the CPO sales process is awful etc...

Sorry, but what you are asking is pretty difficult to gauge based on Tesla’s sales model. Tesla does not price used cars based on what the market will bear.

Let’s agree to disagree.

Cars depreciate as they get older. They also depreciate as new models replace them, or alternatives become available.

Not sure how it’s ok to assume AP1 MS deprecate due to AP2 cars, but the MS doesnt depreciate due to a AP2.5 car being released.

Can’t have it both ways!

 

[bananacube]

Model S price dropped dramatically during the 3rd quarter of this year in the, and CPO became widely available (8x-10x more inventory than there were in the first half of the year). Since model 3 adopted 80-90% features and specs of model s, there is less reason to go buy model S. Especially considering model 3 has better battery, better range, better efficiency, better handling, better interior, looks newer, aged slower, not so much smaller interior wise actually, and most importantly, significantly lower price. there's barely any reason to buy a model s at this point. I think a comparable model s will approach to a point that costs 10-20% more than a model 3, unless a refreshed model comes up with more distinguished features and specs.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Seems like the volume release of the Model 3 has supported Model S prices.

While there may have been more Model S come on the market because some are trading in their original Model S for a new Model 3, there are also a lot more people coming into the Tesla market.

Many potential buyers of the Model 3 got tired of the long wait, and began to take a fresh look at the Model S and X. A used S or X was close in price to a new $50-60K Model S/X. For many the Model S was much better looking, proven, smoother and quieter. It was much better for families due to additional sitting options and the hatch back design allowed for superior carrying of stuff.

With constant OTA updates the older cars had many of the newer releases as the 3.

I have seen no dramatic drops in the prices of S/X, other that what you might expect as those cars get older and more miles.

Overall used Tesla seems to have a much lower depreciation than competitive ICE vehicles.

Important, when calculating % of depreciation you consider that most USA Tesla received around $10,000 in tax incentives when new. Ignoring that fact can make the cars seem to be depreciating faster than they really are.

As an example, my X received tons of tax benefits as I own a small/profitable business. The X stickered at $85,000, but the Section 179 write offs gave me a net cost of around $35,000. Could easily sell it for more than that now. Same with many of the Scandavanian Countries. They recieve so many purchase incentives that they can mostly buy a new Tesla and drive it for several years for free, especially if the incentives go away after they purchase.

Seems like every country has their own circumstances. It the cost of fuel is high in your region, but you can charge up on Solar, the economics quickly make buying a Tesla a no brainer.

 

[PhilDavid]

There are only 3000+ Teslas on the road in the UK it's a niche market and prices should be fairly strong due to the brands presence. I don't see many Model S owner selling and moving to a model 3.

Yes, because you can't buy a Model 3 in the UK yet. Wait until Model 3s are widely available.

I've been monitoring prices closely and the Model 3 definitely HAS had an effect on Model S prices. P85Ds are now in the low 50s. All AP 1.0 cars will become increasingly less desirable as AP 2/2.5 software ramps up.

Not everyone needs a huge car and some may prefer to have the latest technology in the Model 3 over an older larger car so it diminishes the market size from what it used to be.

Bottom line is all cars depreciate significantly with time.

 

[bananacube]

Based on my experience, I was looking at a 15 S 60 back in Apr this year, the lowest price was like 52k. Now you can get a 60 for like 35k. Similarly I was looking at a 16 S 75, lowest price was 65k. Now you can get one for 45k. Depreciation is true. Model S used to hold its value because there are no other competitions can offer such a vehicle. But now from 2018, the story becomes different. The biggest competition is Tesla themselves. That’s for the US market. Other markets will follow as soon as 3 starts to sell

Seems like the volume release of the Model 3 has supported Model S prices.

While there may have been more Model S come on the market because some are trading in their original Model S for a new Model 3, there are also a lot more people coming into the Tesla market.

Many potential buyers of the Model 3 got tired of the long wait, and began to take a fresh look at the Model S and X. A used S or X was close in price to a new $50-60K Model S/X. For many the Model S was much better looking, proven, smoother and quieter. It was much better for families due to additional sitting options and the hatch back design allowed for superior carrying of stuff.

With constant OTA updates the older cars had many of the newer releases as the 3.

I have seen no dramatic drops in the prices of S/X, other that what you might expect as those cars get older and more miles.

Overall used Tesla seems to have a much lower depreciation than competitive ICE vehicles.

Important, when calculating % of depreciation you consider that most USA Tesla received around $10,000 in tax incentives when new. Ignoring that fact can make the cars seem to be depreciating faster than they really are.

As an example, my X received tons of tax benefits as I own a small/profitable business. The X stickered at $85,000, but the Section 179 write offs gave me a net cost of around $35,000. Could easily sell it for more than that now. Same with many of the Scandavanian Countries. They recieve so many purchase incentives that they can mostly buy a new Tesla and drive it for several years for free, especially if the incentives go away after they purchase.

Seems like every country has their own circumstances. It the cost of fuel is high in your region, but you can charge up on Solar, the economics quickly make buying a Tesla a no brainer.

 

[glide]

Based on my experience, I was looking at a 15 S 60 back in Apr this year, the lowest price was like 52k. Now you can get a 60 for like 35k. Similarly I was looking at a 16 S 75, lowest price was 65k. Now you can get one for 45k. Depreciation is true. Model S used to hold its value because there are no other competitions can offer such a vehicle. But now from 2018, the story becomes different. The biggest competition is Tesla themselves. That’s for the US market. Other markets will follow as soon as 3 starts to sell

I don't think using RWD Model S with smaller batteries is a good way to gauge the overall state of the market. The level of demand for RWD vehicles has always been low once dual-motor options became available. Same with the Model 3.

 

[PhilDavid]

I don't think using RWD Model S with smaller batteries is a good way to gauge the overall state of the market. The level of demand for RWD vehicles has always been low once dual-motor options became available. Same with the Model 3.

Except now you can buy a 2015 CPO P85D for $51K. The P85D is AWD...

 

[bananacube]

I don't think using RWD Model S with smaller batteries is a good way to gauge the overall state of the market. The level of demand for RWD vehicles has always been low once dual-motor options became available. Same with the Model 3.

Well, you can get a facelift 75d for around 50k now. Earlier this year it's hard to find one under 70k.

 

[reserves]

I don't think using RWD Model S with smaller batteries is a good way to gauge the overall state of the market.

@glide I’m going to take a guess that you are a Model S owner?

 

[maroon555]

Have been monitoring used Model S price for the past year and the price has dropped drastically in the past few months. Especially for facelift 75 and 75D, the price went down by 10-20k in just a couple of months. Not many people are interested in used S anymore when they can buy a new 3.

I was lucky that I rejected a used 70D in May. Othewise it would have depreciated by at least 15k now.

 

[Eevee]

I am of the opinion that Model S retains it's value better than Model 3 will and partially because of Model 3. That's a big reason why I bought a pre-owned S instead of a new 3.

My reasons:
1. I have been watching prices on used Model S for a while and I don't ever notice a huge drop in prices. Sometimes there's more inventory than usual, but prices are fairly consistent.
2. Free supercharging for life is only available on the early Model S and that's a big draw that will likely help those early Model S retain their value.
3. There's now plenty of data to suggest that Tesla batteries and motors will often last over 500,000 miles. There's a developing reputation that that older Teslas are a good value because they simply keep running.
4. Model S has a status that Model 3 doesn't. Model 3 was always marketed as a $35k vehicle so that's what people think of when they see it. No one - except current Model 3 owners and prospective buyers - even know that Model 3 has never sold for $35k yet. But Model S conjures the thought 'This is a $100,000 car' even if it never was.

Also, see this:
Study: Tesla Model X and Model S continue to hold values better than rivals

 

[WaitingForY]

used S anymore when they can buy a new 3.

yeh Tesla kind of shot themselves in the foot their as the performance and tech are almost the same, the S just being a bit bigger and slightly more gadgets

 

[PhilDavid]

1. I have been watching prices on used Model S for a while and I don't ever notice a huge drop in prices. Sometimes there's more inventory than usual, but prices are fairly consistent.

Did you not notice the drop in P85D prices by about $10-20K over the lats 6 months? They've kept Model S resales value high by withholding CPO inventory and this changed about 6 months ago where they started listing the inventory they have been withholding and making daily price adjustments in the hundreds until vehicles are sold.

Also don;t underestimate the desirability of the Model 3 with the latest Tesla technology. I love the Model 3 myself but understand that not everyone wants such a large car.

At the end of the day, both the Model S and Model 3 are premium cars and they will both depreciaite accordingly as all premium cars do.

Also some of the "studies" of Model S resale values are based on "asking prices" of vehicles listed and not actual sold listings.