Musk Says Tesla Vehicle Production Is Typically Battery Cell Constrained

Unsurprisingly, batteries are the culprit holding back large volume expansion by the carmaker.

While plenty are ready to bash Tesla on short notice, with such a novelty product, it’s not that simple to make all things work. At once. After all, the initial product market introduction and high volume production are two completely different things. And judging by the recent developments in both production and delivery systems, the California based carmaker is making strides in impacting both business area. However, one thing that Tesla cannot impact completely is battery production. And that’s been cited by Elon Musk, the Tesla CEO, as the biggest culprit to their production volume expansion efforts.

For Tesla, the development and production priorities are simple: production numbers, deliveries, followed by the Model Y, solar roof tiles, Tesla pickup, Tesla semi, and Roadster. And every item (sans the roof tiles) will need more batteries. With the Gigafactory 2 gearing up to full capacity and the Nevada facility operating at near full capacity, working on new and improved power cells, it seems all their efforts are directed in allowing them to produce both cars and batteries quicker, but also cheaper, allowing the higher margins to be inputted back to R&D programs.



What really matters is time to volume production, not initial market intro. Apart from brief moments, Tesla vehicle production is limited by total battery output.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 19, 2018





For many, Tesla is a thorn in their heels. And this is becoming especially evident with less and less catastrophic predictions becoming true. However, the company still has a long way ahead of itself and batteries are still going to be their biggest hindering factor for years to come. But overall, we must say that for the most part, Elon Musk is proving everyone wrong. And there’s nothing wrong about that. With bigger and bigger production and delivery goals set, it will be interesting to see how the Lithium and battery industries adjust. Especially with so many of the newcomers and legacy carmakers getting into the EV game with big plans and big dreams.

This article originally appeared on Inside EVs.

 

[Brando]

I won't try to interpret these numbers. This chart is interesting to study.

note: 4 tabs - Countries / Advantages / Opportunities / Companies
and many display/range options to try

Lithium Ion Batteries Exports by Country

 

[gnuarm]

I find this a bit of an odd post to make. Tesla told the world what they would do, now they are saying they shouldn't be held responsible for not performing to the expectations they themselves set?

Yeah, building a new type of car is not easy. Heck, building any kind of car is not easy. GM, Ford and the others do it because they have done it a million times. And they have learned not to set unreasonable expectations.

It's actually a bit comical in some sense. I seem to recall that they had significant delays in getting the model S out because it was their first car and "they learned valuable lessons that would not be repeated". Then the model X was very delayed because it was a very complex car with a lot of options and "they learned valuable lessons that would not be repeated". Then the model 3 was very late ramping up because production at that high a volume is hard and "they learned valuable lessons that would not be repeated". I guess technically they didn't make the same mistakes over, they were all new ones. But they continued to set unrealistic expectations.

I don't know Tesla is really getting bashed around by the public so much because of their manufacturing performance. I'm not sure why this article was written the way it was. I would have simply stated it as fact rather than coming across like an apology. Aside from being overly enthusiastic I think Tesla is doing a great job! I just hope the pickup is available before I'm in the ground! And it had better have a lot better range than the other Teslas.

 

[electracity]

Tesla told the world what they would do, now they are saying they shouldn't be held responsible for not performing to the expectations they themselves set?

Musk is talking to battery manufacturers. Future battery supplies are based on investment. Tesla can't sufficiently guarantee future payments to insure adequate return on the investment level Musk wants. So he trying to encourage battery manufacturers to take more risk in building capacity.

There's nothing unique about batteries. Many manufactured items require prior investment to ramp volume. Tesla probably could not surge model X production because the windshield manufacturer has not made the investment to be able to produce 50,000 units a year.

Musk's past wildly inaccurate predictions about car production volume doesn'y leave him with much credibility to get cell makers to ramp aggressively. Tesla's choice of uniquely using cylinder cells in cars may also hurt them in getting suppliers to invest.

 

[kn5mwe]

Seems to me he is simply stating the fact that batteries are the production bottleneck, not trying to blame someone else. Also, having spent 50 years in the software business, I can testify that Elon does not have a monopoly on inaccurate forecasts. A (sometimes) wise person once told me, "you can schedule construction, but you can't predict invention". Alas, invention is the way you do things that have never been done before.

 

[gnuarm]

Musk is talking to battery manufacturers. Future battery supplies are based on investment. Tesla can't sufficiently guarantee future payments to insure adequate return on the investment level Musk wants. So he trying to encourage battery manufacturers to take more risk in building capacity.

Yeah, I might have a wrong impression, but I thought Tesla was building batteries in the Gigafactory. I suppose it is Panasonic who makes the cells and Tesla builds the battery packs. I believe I read something the other day that Panasonic would be making some/all of their Tesla battery cells in the Gigafactory.

Just a point of clarification... technically a single cell is not a battery. Conventional usage is to call them all batteries, but the term "battery" originally referred to multiple cells ganged together in one package. In the old days of tube radios the A cell powered the tube filaments, the B battery (much higher voltages needed) powered the tube plate and the C battery provided the grid-cathode bias. Notice the simple naming, A, B, C? We now have AA and AAA in addition to C and D cells. What happened to B batteries? No one needs a 90 volt battery these days, that's what!

There's nothing unique about batteries. Many manufactured items require prior investment to ramp volume. Tesla probably could not surge model X production because the windshield manufacturer has not made the investment to be able to produce 50,000 units a year.

I'm not sure you can assume any of that. If model X windshields were the limiting factor, the wait time for getting a car would increase. Production was the limiting factor in model 3 sales, so they introduced the reservation and the wait line jumped to over 300,000. Now that production has ramped up that number has dropped considerably.

Musk's past wildly inaccurate predictions about car production volume doesn'y leave him with much credibility to get cell makers to ramp aggressively. Tesla's choice of uniquely using cylinder cells in cars may also hurt them in getting suppliers to invest.

How do the cylindrical cells make suppliers investment less likely? Model S and X use a very standard size 18650 cell. That can then be sold to many different markets. The model 3 battery pack uses a larger, non-standard cell size (I forget the designation) which may become a standard, but currently is not.

None of the "prismatic" (rectangular) cells use a standard form factor to my knowledge. They are more space efficient, but a bit more expensive to make than a cylindrical cell. I'm not sure car batteries are space limited as opposed to weight being the limiting factor, but I suppose size is a significant factor as well. Prismatic cells allow more capacity (range) in the same size pack so would have an advantage in smaller cars.

 

[Brando]

More variety in battery chemistries than most know. The below page is just 6 common Lithium Ion variations and many trace elements being added (trial & error testing):
BU-216: Summary Table of Lithium-based Batteries – Battery University

formats for cylindrical formats include 18650; 20700; 21700; 32700 - and many more - some other examples:
BatterySpace.com/AA Portable Power Corp. Tel: 510-525-2328

technical information on 3 of the more common cells starting with Sony in 1991 with 18650 cell
Energy Density of Cylindrical Li-Ion Cells: A Comparison of Commercial 18650 to the 21700 Cells

To better understand - Jeff Dahn - hired as Tesla researcher - I think a 5 year contract?? interesting fellow

and big picture why Lithium Ion probably dominates when weight matters
Yi Cui is an associate professor at Stanford University and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory.

 

[Brando]

and a good history summary of past 2 decades of BEV development

 

[brianman]

Aside from being overly enthusiastic I think Tesla is doing a great job! I just hope the pickup is available before I'm in the ground! And it had better have a lot better range than the other Teslas.

Setting yourself up for disappointment.