Hello all.
Semi-long time lurker, first time poster. Love all the input from everyone on this forum. I believe Tesla has us investors on a pretty good road forward.
I did a quick model of Tesla sales for their Model S, X and GenIII cars through 2013, and was wondering if I can get some input from the rest of the board on some of the assumptions I've made. Perhaps someone much smarter than I can extrapolate the figures into a forward looking EPS or P/E through 2020 given the values I listed, or maybe reconfigure some of the assumptions I've made as far as Model S growth, Model X adoption, etc.
Thank you very much all, and I hope this thread can deliver some good discussion.
EDIT:
I've updated my figures to be much more conservative and added a Price Target calculator of sorts. I'm coming up with a price target of $436 based on 2018 earnings at a 15% earnings to revenue ratio (which Goldman Sachs uses, so I went conservative on purpose) with a P/E ratio of 25. If you download the file you should be able to access all the fields.
TSLA v2.0.xlsx - Google Drive
Semi-long time lurker, first time poster. Love all the input from everyone on this forum. I believe Tesla has us investors on a pretty good road forward.
I did a quick model of Tesla sales for their Model S, X and GenIII cars through 2013, and was wondering if I can get some input from the rest of the board on some of the assumptions I've made. Perhaps someone much smarter than I can extrapolate the figures into a forward looking EPS or P/E through 2020 given the values I listed, or maybe reconfigure some of the assumptions I've made as far as Model S growth, Model X adoption, etc.
Thank you very much all, and I hope this thread can deliver some good discussion.
EDIT:
I've updated my figures to be much more conservative and added a Price Target calculator of sorts. I'm coming up with a price target of $436 based on 2018 earnings at a 15% earnings to revenue ratio (which Goldman Sachs uses, so I went conservative on purpose) with a P/E ratio of 25. If you download the file you should be able to access all the fields.
TSLA v2.0.xlsx - Google Drive
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