NASA Announcement for the Moon

[e-FTW]

Also, excellent write-up of the current plan: NASA Plans Transition from Robots to Crewed Moon Landings – NASASpaceFlight.com

 

[Grendal]

Robert Zubrin takes a shot at NASA/government plans for going back to the Moon.
Op-ed | Lunar Gateway or Moon Direct? - SpaceNews.com

 

[ecarfan]

As always, Zubrin is refreshingly direct.

And NASA will completely ignore him because it’s can only do what Congress appropriates money for, and Congress is not interested in a cost-effective and rational approach to lunar exploration.

 

[e-FTW]

Sure, but I like to think that a chunk of the workers at those SLS contractors would be pumped at working on hardware for the Moon!

if spent instead on contracts for entrepreneurial development of Moon Direct landers and excursion vehicles, could enable a return to the moon within four years.

 

[Doug_G]

He hit the nail on the head. The gateway is the stupidest idea ever.

 

[ecarfan]

Moon Shot By 2024 Slammed On Capitol Hill As NASA Has No Cost Estimate | Investor's Business Daily

From the article:
————————————————————————————
At a meeting of the National Space Council last week, Pence said the U.S. was in a "space race."

But on Tuesday, Johnson(*) said the U.S. had won the space race to the moon 50 years ago and called for the end of using "outdated Cold War rhetoric."

She also asked what the administration's justification was for "this crash program." Bridenstine replied that the moon is needed to prove technology for a mission to Mars.
—————————————————————————————

I would label Bridenstine’s answer as “non-responsive”. Also, incorrect. Mars Direct is a more effective approach.

* Chairperson of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology

 

[mongo]

Moon Shot By 2024 Slammed On Capitol Hill As NASA Has No Cost Estimate | Investor's Business Daily

From the article:
————————————————————————————
At a meeting of the National Space Council last week, Pence said the U.S. was in a "space race."

But on Tuesday, Johnson(*) said the U.S. had won the space race to the moon 50 years ago and called for the end of using "outdated Cold War rhetoric."

She also asked what the administration's justification was for "this crash program." Bridenstine replied that the moon is needed to prove technology for a mission to Mars.
—————————————————————————————

I would label Bridenstine’s answer as “non-responsive”. Also, incorrect. Mars Direct is a more effective approach.

* Chairperson of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology

In terms of a large scale, previous constructed vacuum chamber with realistic radiation, it's hard to beat the Moon.
Need to test all the support equipment, not just get to the destination.

 

[ecarfan]

In terms of a large scale, previous constructed vacuum chamber with realistic radiation, it's hard to beat the Moon.
Need to test all the support equipment, not just get to the destination.

I would not call the Moon a “test” environment. It’s an airless, super cold, high radiation environment. Anything we build to use on the Moon will need to be tested before it is used on the Moon. Just like anything we build to use on Mars will need to be tested to the best of our ability on Earth before it is used on Mars.

There are risks in going to Mars directly. Obviously. But we’ve been to the Moon already. Mars is the goal for SpaceX and Elon won’t be building a “test” colony on the Moon first. He knows it’s not worth the effort.

 

[mongo]

I would not call the Moon a “test” environment. It’s an airless, super cold, high radiation environment. Anything we build to use on the Moon will need to be tested before it is used on the Moon. Just like anything we build to use on Mars will need to be tested to the best of our ability on Earth before it is used on Mars.

There are risks in going to Mars directly. Obviously. But we’ve been to the Moon already. Mars is the goal for SpaceX and Elon won’t be building a “test” colony on the Moon first. He knows it’s not worth the effort.

With Starship it is possible to set up something (full sized stuctures) to test on the moon and then leave them there for months/ years without rusk to humans or need to build a huge test chamber.
Elon has been more pro moon base the last couple years. Supporting NASA in their goal is a win-win for SpaceX.
Elon Musk says SpaceX rocket Starship will 'be good' for creating a moon base

 

[Grendal]

Once Elon builds and proves that Starship and Super Heavy work then it will just be a matter of time before there are Moon plans and Mars plans. Elon wants humanity to be interplanetary and will go with whoever builds bases off planet. He'll adjust his plans and do it himself if he has to but, I think, he'd rather do it with someone else if he can.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I still think building a colony on (in) the moon is worthwhile. Maybe even a better idea than Mars.

 

[Nikxice]

Moon Shot By 2024 Slammed On Capitol Hill As NASA Has No Cost Estimate | Investor's Business Daily

Note that article was published 4/2/19 and it also states, "The committee wants a new budget request by April 15." Already 10 days past due and only crickets from NASA. They probably can't keep pace with the movement of decimals to the right of the SLS budget line items.

 

[ecarfan]

Once Elon builds and proves that Starship and Super Heavy work then it will just be a matter of time before there are Moon plans and Mars plans. Elon wants humanity to be interplanetary and will go with whoever builds bases off planet. He'll adjust his plans and do it himself if he has to but, I think, he'd rather do it with someone else if he can.

I think we can agree that whether you try to make humanity multiplanetary on either the Moon or Mars, it is going to be an extremely costly and high risk venture.

Currently I do not think it likely that the resources are available (government or private) to do both ventures simultaneously.

We know that the mission of SpaceX is to colonize Mars. Based on what I know about Jeff Bezos, he isn’t interested in colonizing a planetary body, he wants to enable humans living permanently in space.

So that leaves the US government as the funding resource to establish a Moon colony. Given the fact that there is no national consensus or support for such a venture (unlike in the 60’s there is no “space race” today, Mr. Vice President!) and given the extreme difficulty in procuring sufficient funding from Congress on a long term basis, I rate the probability of that venture becoming reality as very low. All Congress seems to be able to do is create the SLS jobs program and give it just enough money to employ people in various states. Colonizing the Moon will require tens of billions of dollars of additional funding, and there is little to no Congressional support for that. So no matter what Pence and Bridenstine say publicly, the reality is that the money just isn’t there. And given recent Federal tax cuts and ballooning Federal deficits I see little chance of sufficient funding being approved (US Federal debt for FY 2020 will be over $1 trillion).

So that leaves Elon and his burning desire to establish a colony on Mars, a body with vastly more useful resources than the Moon making it a more desirable place to inhabit long term.

Now, if the US government goes to SpaceX and says “Here’s a few billion dollars, build us some spaceships to help us establish a lunar base” Elon of course will take the money. But the likelihood of that happening is very low, in my opinion.

Of course Elon is going to have to figure out how to fund his Mars ambitions. But he’s been thinking about that for nearly two decades, obviously has some ideas, and is famous for figuring things out as he goes along. It will be the hardest thing humanity has ever attempted. But it is the goal of SpaceX, and it will be attempted. SpaceX may well fail. We shall see...

 

[Grendal]

We know that the mission of SpaceX is to colonize Mars. Based on what I know about Jeff Bezos, he isn’t interested in colonizing a planetary body, he wants to enable humans living permanently in space.

I think the science is there that, unless someone builds a rotating structure in space, that humans living long term in a zero gravity environment is not healthy. So Bezo's position needs a little more planning. Elon has a better grasp of the long term goal. The Moon or Mars is a better plan for the near term future. Long term, I really think that O'Neil colonies and other space based structures make a lot of sense but that is too far in the future for me to grasp what needs to be done.

Sadly, I think Elon will forced to team up with some government. Creating any type of multiplanetary colony is just too big an endeavor to pull off with Tesla, SpaceX, and Boring Company alone. Much like Tesla, it's going to take him and his people creating the compelling products that make it all possible at a price that makes it stupid not to join in. If Starship and Super Heavy are making going to space inexpensive enough to really begin industrializing space then colonization will become a needed necessity to go along with that.

Edit: Let me add that if NASA (which is the government) decides a Moon base is the plan and throws enough money at SpaceX to build 4 or 5 Starships and Super Heavies then those rockets will exist and Elon can later use them to colonize Mars on his own dime. Elon always thinks big. People and governments buying into their own plans leads to a larger fleet of rockets and boosters. The reality is that SpaceX has 8 or 9 Block 5 boosters right now after one year of building them. What do you think Elon would do with a fleet of 20 Starships and 10 Super Heavy boosters?

 

[ecarfan]

Let me add that if NASA (which is the government) decides a Moon base is the plan and throws enough money at SpaceX to build 4 or 5 Starships and Super Heavies then those rockets will exist and Elon can later use them to colonize Mars on his own dime.

NASA can propose whatever it wants, but Congress has to authorize the funds (I realize you know this very well!). And I see little chance that Congress will authorize the tens of billions necessary to establish a lunar colony.

I agree that SpaceX needs some deep pocket partners to colonize Mars. Maybe one will be the US government, but I doubt it.

 

[Grendal]

NASA can propose whatever it wants, but Congress has to authorize the funds (I realize you know this very well!). And I see little chance that Congress will authorize the tens of billions necessary to establish a lunar colony.

I agree that SpaceX needs some deep pocket partners to colonize Mars. Maybe one will be the US government, but I doubt it.

We agree the issue is, even if Congress/NASA wants a Moon base, Congress would never authorize the money for SpaceX instead of their NASA jobs programs in their states/districts. However, if those same congresspeople figure out that trying to beat SpaceX at rockets is a losing battle then they could transition the money into the infrastructure for a base and let SpaceX be the transportation for the equipment. That could work towards SpaceX's goals. So instead of blowing $3 billion a year on a rocket to nowhere they could spend $3 billion on Moon base infrastructure. That would still leave plenty of NASA funds for 20 to 50 Starship launches.

 

[ecarfan]

Eric Berger on ars technica: High cost, lack of support spell trouble for 2024 Moon landing plan

No kidding. Quote:

“According to two Washington, DC-based sources, NASA has informed the White House that it will need as much as $8 billion a year, for the next five years, to speed development of the Space Launch System rocket, a Lunar Gateway, a lunar lander, new spacesuits, and related hardware for a 2024 landing.”

Not going to happen.

 

[ecarfan]

More from that article, quote: “For Bridenstine, who genuinely would like to see NASA soar and reach the Moon more quickly, the road ahead is a difficult one. To truly land humans on the Moon within NASA's existing budget would require some radical changes. This may include ending the Gateway or giving up on the SLS rocket and its costly budget, relying more on rockets like the Falcon Heavy and forthcoming New Glenn launcher instead. The agency would also need to consider staging lunar lander missions from low-Earth orbit, instead of lunar orbit, due to the limitations of these less-powerful, but also considerably less-expensive (and reusable) rockets.”

 

[Nikxice]

Artemis, twin sister of Apollo. The new name announced last night by Jim Bridenstine for the 2024 Moon landing project. Several news articles out now about the name and NASA's budget request increase. As usual Eric Berger has published one of the more in-depth stories. Although some immediate funding would also go to Orion, together with Boeing there'd be a quick increase of 651 million for the SLS money pit (probably to top off their cost plus bankroll). Still, nothing is guaranteed to come of this budget amendment. Taking 1.6 billion from Pell Grants that helps poor kids pay for college isn't going to be a easy sell to Congress (my new STEM acronym, Systematically Take Education Money). I get the fact that a shorter timeline increases the likelihood of again reaching the moon, finding it difficult to view this as anything more than an administration vanity project. Berger mentions that in Greek mythology Artemis kills Orion. May turn out to be irony, but I'll agree too, at least liking the project name.
NASA reveals funding needed for Moon program, says it will be named Artemis

 

[Nikxice]

SpaceX is one of several companies awarded NASA funds to study development of a lunar lander. From Teslariti,
"Impressively, the SpaceX lander would aim for nearly double Blue Moon’s 6.5t payload capability, delivering as much as 12t (26,500 lb) to the surface of the Moon. That payload could either enable an unprecedentedly large crew capsule/ascent vehicle or permit the delivery of truly massive robotic or cargo payloads. Additionally, SpaceX believes that a descent stage with the aforementioned capabilities could potentially double as an excellent orbital transfer stage, refueling tug, and more. The lander would also serve as a full-up testbed for all the advanced technologies SpaceX needs to enable its goals of sustainable, reliable, and affordable solar system colonization."

We should learn more as each company proposal gets vetted before the end of this year. Interesting contenders, Boeing and Lockheed are probably banking on legacy experience, while Blue Origin's already flaunting their BM prototype. Elon loves a challenge, perhaps SpaceX's ability to innovate and move rapidly from concept to development can be a factor.
Full article. SpaceX wins NASA funds to study a Falcon Heavy-launched Moon lander