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the falcon 9 and falcon heavy will continue to be more expensive because in both cases their second stage is not reusable(and probably never will be).
I am not yet convinced that their cycler concept is superior to what SpaceX has proposed with the ITS. Their cycler concept seems far more complex; it requires the cycler vehicle to be assembled in orbit, a greater variety of vehicles built, and a lot of transfers of people between vehicles while in orbit around Earth and Mar. The SpaceX plan is much simpler. Of course the ITS plan is still incredibly challenging. Clearly Elon does not believe the cycler concept is the best approach.
That is my non-expert view as well. But somehow the Purdue University engineering student project came to a different conclusion. And they assumed a lot of vehicle reuse. See https://engineering.purdue.edu/AAECourses/aae450/2017/spring/docs/AAE 450-Project Destiny.pdf . I'm only partway through their analysis, and much of it is over my head, but if I had to bet I would put my money not the SpaceX approach. I'm not terribly worried that Elon's team is going down the wrong path!Reuse is what makes ITS work. If you didn't have it then the cycler system would probably be a better strategy. I'm pretty sure that SpaceX went with ITS because of the amount of people and payload they want to be transferring as well. The cycler is fine for small numbers of people and tiny payloads.
I'm struggling understanding the cyclers orbits, two times around earth for every time to mars, will this require a lot of fuel?
Fig. 5.2.1.2.1
Well, I just saw Elon's presentation at IAC on 9/29. Have to say I'm loving the new direction. I can't help but wonder if he saw my Workhorse mockup or perhaps one of his advisors. It's almost point for point the exact same thing, right down to using the revised ITS to retrieve space junk and retire old satellites.
Ok, and I think I'm not the first to say this, but I think another reason for the revised ITS is so that SpaceX can now go public with an IPO. Elon has made the design more earth centric and practical. Something that would now appeal to investors. I think SpaceX needs a very large infusion of capital in order to make the ITS as well as it's other low earth orbit satellites (totaling 4425) venture. And yes I know about Google's and Fidelity's initial investment. It's not enough. Just like with Tesla, Elon knows you get to a certain size and maturity as a company, then you need to go public in order to rapidly grow it to where it needs to be. Mars can still happen as either a money losing R&D department within SpaceX or as a totally separate private company that then contracts with SpaceX to use a modified version of the new ITS design. How's that?
Ok, and I think I'm not the first to say this, but I think another reason for the revised ITS is so that SpaceX can now go public with an IPO. Elon has made the design more earth centric and practical. Something that would now appeal to investors. I think SpaceX needs a very large infusion of capital in order to make the ITS as well as it's other low earth orbit satellites (totaling 4425) venture. And yes I know about Google's and Fidelity's initial investment. It's not enough. Just like with Tesla, Elon knows you get to a certain size and maturity as a company, then you need to go public in order to rapidly grow it to where it needs to be. Mars can still happen as either a money losing R&D department within SpaceX or as a totally separate private company that then contracts with SpaceX to use a modified version of the new ITS design. How's that?
I still don't see SpaceX going public. Elon hates Tesla being public. It has made him rich, but it gives him stress and headaches he doesn't need. He is already well aware of how making SpaceX public would interfere with what he is trying to do with SpaceX. No investor in their right mind would support plans to colonize Mars. It's just not a money making venture. Elon wants to make the ticket price to Mars as low as possible. He isn't planning on making a profit from the colonists.
What I could see is Elon creating a separate publicly owned company for Earth to Earth (E2E) transport that buys BFR/BFS's from SpaceX. That way he could separate one entity from the other. SpaceX makes profits from selling rockets and spacecraft while building their own fleet of rockets for colonization. It creates a layer that if the E2E transport system fails then it won't kill SpaceX.
Boeing makes planes but sells them to the various airlines. It makes more sense if SpaceX makes the rockets then sells them to another entity selling the E2E transport.
I often think about what I'd do if I ran Tesla during a period in which it made excess money; on my short list, right after massive growth, is buying back being public and going private. I play with the buyback price; somewhere between $1,000 to $2,000 per share would do it, after attempts at buying back as much stock as possible quietly on the open and dark markets for lower prices over a moderate period of time. I'd also get rid of non-Tesla goal oriented directors (such as those recently appointed to appease government employee retirement plan funds, which I assume are in pocket of old establishment impedimentarians and destructionists).I still don't see SpaceX going public. Elon hates Tesla being public. It has made him rich, but it gives him stress and headaches he doesn't need. He is already well aware of how making SpaceX public would interfere with what he is trying to do with SpaceX.
Unless they're selling massive plots of land, minerals, alternate nation legal frameworks, etc. Huge real estate opportunity, growth environments. But I see your point: colonization has outlandish costs compared to widget making.No investor in their right mind would support plans to colonize Mars. It's just not a money making venture. Elon wants to make the ticket price to Mars as low as possible. He isn't planning on making a profit from the colonists.
That definitely makes sense: they're already going to be competing with virtual transport as well as old forms of transit (airplane, car, train, boat).What I could see is Elon creating a separate publicly owned company for Earth to Earth (E2E) transport that buys BFR/BFS's from SpaceX. That way he could separate one entity from the other. SpaceX makes profits from selling rockets and spacecraft while building their own fleet of rockets for colonization. It creates a layer that if the E2E transport system fails then it won't kill SpaceX.