DOE released a report today on the chances of 1M #EV's by 2015. Looks like its a real possibility...
http://www.energy.gov/media/1_Million_Electric_Vehicle_Report_Final.pdf
http://www.energy.gov/media/1_Million_Electric_Vehicle_Report_Final.pdf
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One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015 - US DOE February 2011 Status Report
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Some of the stats are similar to the University of Indiana document someone linked elsewhere.
It appears quite possible, assuming the manufacturers deliver and there are buyers.
IMO I think Volt is getting a free ride on the EV bandwagon. :biggrin:
It appears quite possible, assuming the manufacturers deliver and there are buyers.
IMO I think Volt is getting a free ride on the EV bandwagon. :biggrin:
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roblab
Active Member
1. Calling Prius, Volt, etc. "EVs"
2. Telling us that EVs are "80%" efficient, but NOT telling us that gas cars are 20% efficient.
3. Reporting that now, with Lithium Ion, we can get 100 miles per charge, but ignoring that the Solectria and RAV4EV which got OVER 100 miles on NiMH ten years or more ago
4. Ignoring that Tesla can get WELL over 100 miles per charge today, can be charged in 45 minutes, and that long range driving does not need a gas engine.
Only part of the story doesn't help as much as all of the story. Looks like the video producer is still afraid of EVs.
The reality is that one million electric cars wouldn't accomplish anything of significance, either in terms of emissions or oil imports. Emissions, in particular , would be so
little affected that I doubt whether 40 million electrics would do much in that regard. But, people are stupid, and a million sounds like a big number, especially to the
guy sitting in the Oval Office, at least for now.
little affected that I doubt whether 40 million electrics would do much in that regard. But, people are stupid, and a million sounds like a big number, especially to the
guy sitting in the Oval Office, at least for now.
Norbert
TSLA will win
1 million is a large number in terms of establishing electric cars on the market. Of course that is just the beginning, but enough to drive battery development to the point where electric cars can go mainstream. As solar power achieves grid parity with NG, the continued growth of electric cars and their effect on emissions will be significant. Eventually most cars will be electric, and the grid more and more consist of renewable/clean power.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Let's see -- a million EVs leads to a reduction of ~500 million gallons of gasoline, which could reduce oil imports by ~20 million barrels/year and reduce the trade deficit by ~$2 billion/year. Doesn't sound too shabby on that front.
On the emissions front, burning a gallon of gas generates 19.4 lb/US gal of CO2, so that's a direct tailpipe reduction of about 4.4 million metric tons of CO2. In contrast, the US grid average was 6.896x10-4 mtt/kWh in 2007; if the typical EV is driven 13,000 miles/year, requiring 4,000 kWh of power (at the generating station, accounting for losses), that's 2.8 million metric tons of CO2. I believe that this figure is high, however, because there is a substantial shift underway in the electric generation sector, away from coal towards natural gas and renewables. This (conservative) 1.6 million metric tonnes savings is indeed a small part of the overall carbon footprint of the U.S. (about 5.5 billion metric tonnes). But (a) it's a start and (b) it puts in place an infrastructure that becomes lower-carbon by changing the electric sector's carbon intensity.
I still think that the first and best argument for EVs is about the trade deficit and foreign entanglements that our heavy oil use requires.
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