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Pack weight 40kwh

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Raw cells in 18650 size are 48g. Raw 21700 cells reportedly have a max weight of 75g and minimum discharge of 3750mAh. I will leave the rest of the math to you.

That seems improbable - 50% more weight and only 10% more energy than the later 18650 cells?

I thought Tesla was expecting to get a 10-15% improvement in energy density from going to 2170...
 
That seems improbable - 50% more weight and only 10% more energy than the later 18650 cells?

I thought Tesla was expecting to get a 10-15% improvement in energy density from going to 2170...
Yes, the 3750Ah is suspect. It was from a document that was several years old that was talking about Samsung Cells. The same document was talking about Silicon rich anodes coming in the future. That is today's technology in Tesla's battery packs.