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Today was a day with substantial short activity (nearly 60% of trading done by shorts). Both the DOW and NASDAQ showed declines after 11am, and so shorts had assistance in pulling TSLA down in a slow descent from its high of over 347. Meanwhile, sightings of Model 3s ready for delivery are picking up substantially, which suggests this rally might find a second wind next week. We shall see.
Many of us believe that manipulations by the shorts, such as we've seen this week, can temporarily affect the SP but all those gains fought for by the shorts are typically lost when good news surfaces and the SP runs back to where it belongs.
Many thanks for the good wishes regarding my bug. The fever kicked my ass on day one, I kicked the fever on day two, and it should be smooth sailing going forward.
Conditions:
* Dow down 77 (0.%)
* NASDAQ down 19 (0.%)
* TSLA 337.89, down 1.14 (%)
* TSLA volume 5.8M shares
* Oil 57.19, up 0.59 (1.04%)
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Congratulations longs on an excellent week. TSLA closed at 343.45, up 28.32 from last Friday's 315.13. In many ways, today's trading resembled last Friday's Trading, when an attempted afternoon walk-down in price by the shorts failed and gave way to a spirited rally in the final hour. One reason for such spirited endings on Fridays? The first hour of trading on Monday mornings tend to be positive when TSLA ends the previous week on a roll.
Looking at today's trading, you can see the mandatory morning dip with the telltale deep dips and near-recoveries, suggesting short-selling in a tug-of-war with longs willing to bid the price back up. The price recovered until about 1:30pm at which point selling (most likely by shorts aiming for a late-afternoon walk-down in price) began. Not long after 2:00pm, the SP started to recover, and so shorts capped the price for half an hour (near horizontal trading with lots of small bumps) until the price got away from them and started up. With this failure, the stage was set for another big rally in the final hour. Also noteworthy is the massive buying during opening and closing minutes of trading (426,000 shares and 817,000 shares, respectively). These trades don't substantially change the stock price and are likely big institutional buyers who are adding but don't want to bid up the price or (more likely in my opinion) short-sellers who are buying to reload after their manipulative selling activities.
Looking at the short % of trading for the past month, you can see that short activity really went into high gear on November 27 and it has stayed high ever since. Compare what was happening since Nov 27 on the technical chart below.
Nov 27 lies along the vertical line below the "27" in the technical chart above. The SP had been in a slow climb at the time the shorts started piling on and within a couple days they managed to begin a decline that threatened to take TSLA to 300. Alas, the big jump up from 300 came when some big institutional buyer started picking up shares. The next two really big up days were Monday and Tuesday of this week, when weekend sightings of lots of Model 3s at delivery centers led to more widespread belief that Model 3 was ramping up. Notice that by Tuesday the SP was well above the upper bb. A combination of rapidly rising upper bb and a couple small days of declines has now allowed the SP to rest nearly adjacent with the upper bb. What to expect for next week? Although Friday's late-afternoon rally sets us up for a nice opening on Monday, the SP lying on the upper bb at present likely doesn't give us the same headroom for running uphill as we saw last week. Of course confirmed good news can change that situation and allow the stock to disregard the upper bb for a while, but we would need to hear something definite, I believe for this coming week to equal last week. Nonetheless, the stage is set for some really nice appreciation as good news filters in during the coming months. Short holdings are very close to 32 million shares, which is extremely high for TSLA on the way up and can lead to nice climbing once the shorts feel the pain of margin calls and start covering. The biggest risks in the short run will be increased effectiveness of short-seller manipulations during the low volume holiday periods and perhaps a disappointment in Model 3 deliveries for 2017 in the first few days of January (although S and X deliveries should be good). Low Model 3 deliveries could be offset by an impressive current run rate disclosure during the deliveries message. Wildcards include an announcement of all founders series Roadster 2s being sold out (can you say $200 million in deposits?) and word of substantial semi-truck orders. It's gonna be a lively new year.
Conditions:
* Dow up 143 (0.58%)
* NASDAQ up 80 (1.17%)
* TSLA 343.45, up 5.56 (1.65%)
* TSLA volume 6.9M shares
* Oil 57.30, up 0.26 (0.46%)
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Comments from second opinion in TD Ameritrade:
The technical condition of TSLA is improving. Some of the indicators have turned positive suggesting that a bottom in the stock price has likely occurred. The stock is underperforming the market over the last 50 trading days when compared to the S&P 500. The MACD-LT, is confirming that the intermediate-term trend is bullish at this time. TSLA's chart formation suggests an upward trend is beginning/ stock is in the early stages of a rising trend. A close above $340.52 is a number to watch to confirm a trend reversal. Momentum as measured by the 9-day RSI is gaining in strength. The stock is in a short-term overbought condition based on a Slow % K stochastic reading of 80 or higher. Over the last 50 trading sessions, there has been more volume on up days than on down days indicating that TSLA is under accumulation, which is a bullish condition. The stock is above its 50-day moving average which is pointed down. This is supportive that the trend is improving. TSLA is above its rising 200-day moving average which is pointed up adding to the stocks improving technical condition.
The technical condition of TSLA is improving. Some of the indicators have turned positive suggesting that a bottom in the stock price has likely occurred. The stock is underperforming the market over the last 50 trading days when compared to the S&P 500. The MACD-LT, is confirming that the intermediate-term trend is bullish at this time. TSLA's chart formation suggests an upward trend is beginning/ stock is in the early stages of a rising trend. A close above $340.52 is a number to watch to confirm a trend reversal. Momentum as measured by the 9-day RSI is gaining in strength. The stock is in a short-term overbought condition based on a Slow % K stochastic reading of 80 or higher. Over the last 50 trading sessions, there has been more volume on up days than on down days indicating that TSLA is under accumulation, which is a bullish condition. The stock is above its 50-day moving average which is pointed down. This is supportive that the trend is improving. TSLA is above its rising 200-day moving average which is pointed up adding to the stocks improving technical condition.
Today was a classic short-attack, aimed at defining a top to the recent rally. The broader markets opened well up, with TSLA trading up in pre-market, which presented a threat to shorts. With no news of significance on the horizon, selling in excess of 25,000 shares/minute at various times in the early morning brought the mandatory morning dip, which told traders that they should take their money elsewhere if they want to take advantage of the good macro day. TSLA rallied into the green but was beaten down again and again. Just after 3pm it made a break towards the green/red line, and here was the crux of the day. If TSLA had crossed into the green, the rally could have taken off and TSLA could have enjoyed a close like Friday's, but the shorts were clever enough to sell large enough blocks of shares to engineer a quick descent during the low volume afternoon. We'll give the shorts points for a well-executed strategy today, but once Model 3 really begins to ramp up, the SP returns to where it belongs. I suggest caution with short-term trades until the new year, since low volume during the holiday periods will aid manipulations such as today's.
Note that 160,000 shares traded hands in the first minute of trading and an undisclosed number traded hands in the final minute of market trading. Again, I think these times of day are being used as "reloading" opportunity for manipulative short-sellers who engineer dips such as this afternoon's but do not wish to push the SP upward as they buy to cover their previous short-selling.
Conditions:
* Dow up 140 (0.57%)
* NASDAQ up 58 (0.84%)
* TSLA 338.87, down 4.58 (1.33%)
* TSLA volume 5.5M shares
* Oil 57.22, down 0.11 (0.19%)
Ouch, today the bears and shorts managed to take advantage of a declining macro environment and engineer a sticky dip on steroids. These types of descents into closing are more popular than ever with our counterparts in the TSLA trading world. Looking at the volume of shares traded in the final minute of market trading today, we see 878,000 shares, which may be the highest number I've ever seen in a one minute trade. What a wonderful opportunity for a short to close out manipulative short positions opened earlier in the day (at a nice profit) and be ready to rinse and repeat the following day. I'm told that FUD was particularly plentiful today and yesterday. The news of UPS ordering 125 Tesla semis should have driver the SP up, but the shorts had other ideas. Alas, at some point the big dog buyers will grow tired of the games and start buying again.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the 20 day moving average is only about $3 lower than the current stock price, and so the shorts will make a point of trying to drive the SP below the 200 dma tomorrow and then trying for the 50 day after that. We're likely going to see a new tax bill signed into law on Wednesday, though, which should give the markets a boost and make the manipulation somewhat more challenging.
Conditions:
* Dow down 37 (0.15%)
* NASDAQ down 31 (0.44%)
* TSLA 331.10, down 7.77 (2.29%)
* TSLA volume 6.8M shares
* Oil 57.71, up 0.15 (0.26%)
I think shortvolume.com is like Ihor Dusaniwsky in that they have access to the short/long status of quite a bit of the TSLA trading in a day, but they don't have access to all of it. I believe some interpolation is used. For example, if you look at the long vs. short numbers used by shortvolume.com every day, those numbers come up short of total volume of TSLA trading. I'm not an expert in this field and invite additional perspectives.
Today was classic short-seller manipulation with positive pre-market trading leading into three successive mandatory morning dips (with recoveries to the red/green line, a game of bop-the-mole as the recovery from the noon dip had a trajectory which would otherwise have taken TSLA into the green, and then two more games of dip and recover in the afternoon. In order to pull off this feat, the shorts had to consume 60% of today's trading, and they barely prevented an afternoon rally. If I were a short, I'd be starting to get worried.
We saw similar resistance to short-seller manipulations back when the stock was at 306 and later as it was at 300. Whenever the stock was pushed down to these prices, buyers materialized. With this much difficulty preventing a rally on a macro-neutral day, the shorts may not be as successful tomorrow. Let's see.
The www.shortvolume.com graph shows an uptick in short percentage of trading as the shorts put extra effort into preventing a rally today.
So, why are certain shorts putting in so much effort lately on pushing the stock price down? I like to look at shorts as basically two types: sell and hold and sell and churn. The Sell and Churn variety don't hold their "trading" short positions for long. They sell to influence the stock price, then recharge their positions by covering in the final minute of the market day or at other times when their buying is not likely to cause the SP to rise. For example, we saw 80,000+ shares trade hands in the first and last minutes of trading today without any significant change to the stock price. The sell and churn shorts get involved when they believe the SP will be descending or when they believe it will be descending with their help. The holiday period is a particularly attractive time for sell and churn shorts because as regular traders reduce their hours (and stock volume) during the holiday periods, the reduced volume allows more effectiveness in manipulations. Look, for example, at sell and churn shorts who fought the battle to hold the SP down as it tried to break into the green at about 331. Many of these short could have covered at end of day with a gain of about $2. It's profitable being a sell and churn short when the stock price is heading down and unprofitable (generally) as the SP is heading up. Sometimes you see significant effort put in when the stock price is heading up because 1) that effort could result in the stock price reversing and heading down (where things become profitable again) or 2) to protect a short's core position of sold-short shares (if such a position exists).
What to expect for tomorrow? We're sitting right on the 200 day moving average. This level has provided support for longs today. The shorts will go after then 200 dma and then the 50 dma if they can. Unfortunately for the shorts, if macros do not allow, they might have another day like today but lose the battle to keep a morning or afternoon rally from materializing. Watch for the battle at the red/green transition level. That has recently been a major battleground. Look at the recovery of more than 50 cents in after-market trading, which may give a clue about inclinations toward tomorrow.
Conditions:
* Dow down 28 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ down 3 (0.04%)
* TSLA 328.98, down 2.12 (0.64%)
* TSLA volume 6.0M shares
* Oil 58.05, down 0.04 (0.07%)
Despite very low volume, afternoon macro market declines, and shorts accounting for 64% of today's trading, TSLA bucked the headwinds and closed up today. Quite simply, buyers materialized every time TSLA wandered below the 200 day moving average, which presently resides a bit below 329. The 200 dma proved to be a nice support level today. After about a dozen crosses of the red/green line, traders figured out that the shorts lacked the horsepower to push the stock price below the 200 day moving average today, and they bid the price up, with a peak around 2pm. The rather level trading somewhat above 332 suggests a serious effort by shorts to keep the stock from regaining 333 today. All in all, 331.66 was a triumph for longs. The good news is that we could see the shorts close to losing control of the SP yesterday, and though they contained the damage today, they lost control and TSLA ran higher than desired.
Nothing in the trading world is set in stone. Shorts were above to eventually break through 306 a few weeks ago, but they never could take 300. The 200 day moving average now looks to be the support level that confounds the shorts. Macros and news permitting, let's hope the longs start building upward momentum from here.
Conditions:
* Dow up 56 (0.23%)
* NASDAQ up 4 (0.06%)
* TSLA 331.66, up 2.68 (0.81%)
* TSLA volume 4.4M shares
* Oil 58.15, down 0.21 (0.36%)
Today TSLA closed at 325.20, down 6.46 for the day and down 18.25 from last Friday's 343.45. On low volume, the shorts managed a dip on steroids in the closing hour. I could talk about yesterday's triumph for the longs or today's triumph for the shorts, but really, it makes little difference. We're in a volatile period of low volume trading while investors await word on the ramp-up of Model 3. One phrase best describes yesterday's climb and today's descent: "mouse nuts." We're all speculating while Tesla sorts out the issues with Model 3 production. Once the line is humming at 5,000 Model 3s a week, all the speculation about recent ups and downs will be as valuable as the discussion of two fleas, trying to determine ownership of the dog. Once the ramp-up takes place, this stock is going to Mars. Until then, expect volatility and lots of manipulations.
Have a Merry Christmas or however you celebrate the holiday period. TSLA investors have enjoyed a good year so far, and 2018 should be outstanding.
Conditions:
* Dow down 28 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ down 5 (0.03%)
* TSLA 325.20, down 6.46 (1.95%)
* TSLA volume 4.2M shares
* Oil 58.47, up 0.11 (0.19%)
Welcome to Week Two of the TSLA stock price manipulation olympics in which volume is low during the holiday period, shorts are trading the majority of shares, and the Model 3 ramp has not yet made its huge break upward. The big jump in the Model 3 ramp will come, likely within January if not sooner, but until then expect price volatility. Of course an artificial push by shorts to lower the SP can be profitable for longs, if you buy towards the bottom of the dip (or at least sit tight during the dip). One of the best ways to predict the bottom is when the manipulations of the shorts start to fail. If you have some dry powder, watch carefully.
The shorts are probably pretty smug right now because the Model 3 deliveries in 2017 will be low, likely less than 3,000. Offsetting these low numbers should be some excellent S and X delivery numbers. The real wild card in the 4Q delivery report will be color on current production rate or near-term production rate. It truly is a guessing game, but shorts will continue to push for lower SP until some big buyer says "enough" and starts an accumulation like we saw that brought us out of the low 300s not that many weeks ago.
Today, TSLA felt not only 60% of shares being traded by shorts on low volume but also headwinds of broader markets being down and some sector redistribution as Trump starts making noise about a trillion dollars of infrastructure repairs coming. AAPL was down 2.54% today, and BABA down 2.25%. Some tech stocks still did well (NVDA up 1.11%), thus showing that even on a slow day for tech stocks, good news will allow a particular stock to still do well and good news will be forthcoming for TSLA soon enough.
Since Nov 27, shorts have typically been trading 55% to 66% of TSLA, which is at historically high levels.
For most of us, our plan is a simple one: snug up the seatbelt, ride out the holiday turbulence, and look forward to a compelling 2018. For those of you with dry powder, you're going to have an excellent opportunity for long-term appreciation if you buy at the bottom of this holiday dip and hold through the Model 3 ramp to 10,000 units/week. I continue to suggest caution with short-term trades because timing Tesla's positive events can be frustrating when they are delayed beyond expectations (which happens all too often). For a patient investor, however, the opportunities presented by the Model 3 ramp translates into an excellent investment opportunity. Oil prices are rising just as Tesla's mass-market vehicle is coming into significant production.
Conditions:
* Dow down 7 (0.03%)
* NASDAQ down 24 (0.34%)
* TSLA 317.29, down 7.91 (2.43%)
* TSLA volume 4.4M shares
* Oil 59.72, down 0.25 (0.42%)
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Today I was watching the close of trading carefully, for there are presently two prevailing camps regarding where TSLA SP goes from here. One is the OptionSniper camp, where any price below 313-314 is considered a raging buy and big appreciation is expected from here. The other camp is the "Q4 delivery numbers for Model 3 will disappoint" camp, which suggests we bottom out after the early January numbers are released. In support of the second camp are the existence of clueless analysts who still expect Model 3 deliveries well in excess of 3,000 units this year. So, what's the market telling us about who's right? The answer is unclear because the shorts were unable to manufacture a sizable dip in the final hour of trading and longs were unable to create a rally during that time frame. Expect a mandatory morning dip tomorrow, but where do we go from there? If you have dry powder, watch carefully because today's end of day trading suggests the downward pressure by shorts is producing weaker results than earlier this week. Also consider splitting your buying into multiple buy points: near our current price and saving some dry powder in case the bottom comes next week. Happy hunting!
Conditions:
* Dow up 28 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ up 3 (0.04%)
* TSLA 311.64, down 5.65 (1.78%)
* TSLA volume 4.7M shares
* Oil 59.64, down 0.33 (0.55%)
Hmm, short percentage of TSLA trading today was 61% and the media and some analysts are purposely bending the truth to set the Q4 delivery numbers up as a disappointment. I'm leaning more towards the second camp at the moment, but will keep a careful eye on the stock for a reversal.
Someone revised their numbers from 15,000 down to 5,000 m3 for the quarter iirc. Not sure why they were revising it now since they could have done it two months ago. 5,000 still sounds pretty high.
erthquake
Active Member
It was KeyBanc, and the 5k number was intentional. They, and everyone else, know Tesla won't achieve that number. Thus they can hammer TSLA again next week with "they miss again" when they report 1.5-3k deliveries.
With two hours of trading left today, I'm shifting my expectations back towards OptionSniper's point of view. Tesla registered more than 3500 new Model 3 VINs today and electrek.co is showing a drone video that indicates Model 3s are moving out of Fremont at a good clip this week. I bought a couple calls this morning.
Here is why I posted an optimistic upgrade to my thinking today on this thread and the TSLA Market Action thread. Trading turned positive today as a large increase in Model 3 VIN registrations and as drone footage showed Model 3s moving quickly and in apparently high numbers from the Fremont factory. What particularly caught my attention, though, were multiple failures of the shorts to control the stock price today. Such failures are a good indication that their ability to manipulate is now in question at this stock price and with current news.
TSLA ran up a couple points at opening, immediately lost almost all the gains, then shot right back up. Through stairstep efforts, shorts pulled TSLA almost down to the red/green line at 10:20am, it started bouncing back, and then shorts let TSLA have it with an incredible selling flurry (15,000 shares at 10:36, 30,000 shares at 10:37, 20,000 shares at 10:38, 57,000 shares at 10:39, 35,000 at 10:40, and 15,000 at 10:41 to hit the day's low of 310.0). That's more than 170,000 shares sold in a 6 minute period. Of course all the selling wasn't done by shorts, just most of it. The goal that Curt Renz suggested was tripping the stop-loss orders at 310, but instead of a flurry of selling, shorts discovered a flurry of buying and TSLA quickly recovered into the green. Shorts managed just one more push to the red/green line, but it didn't stick and the rest of the day was a somewhat turbulent climb until close.
NASDAQ- TSLA bottomed out about 10:40am after an attempted dip on steroids by the shorts. The NASDAQ also rallied strong in the closing 20 minutes
DOW- The DOW had another good day with a strong finish in the final 30 minutes
I bought a couple calls after TSLA established that it was climbing and had won the "whack-the-mole" game. I didn't go whole hog, though, because I wanted to see the final hour's trading and see which party won that tug-of-war. Longs won, but the run-up was in an environment of macros running up into the close, so I don't consider it a decisively strong finish (but a good finish all the same!).
What to expect for tomorrow? I'm reasonably optimistic for the mid and long term, but tomorrow afternoon might turn out to be like last Friday's afternoon trading, where low volume allowed the shorts a manipulation opportunity. If shorts do manage to push the SP down in the late afternoon, I will probably be ready to buy before close, to take advantage of the nonsense. I do believe that 313 is close enough to the dip's low that it is a good buying point, but I have grown more conservative in my days and am spreading out my buying. I really doubt that anyone picking up shares at this price and this close to substantial Model 3 ramp up will regret that decision a few months from now.
Conditions:
* Dow up 63 (0.26%)
* NASDAQ up 11 (0.16%)
* TSLA 315.36, up 3.72 (1.19%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 59.84, up 0.20 (0.34%)
Today was a down day for the broader markets, with a slow decline in index values as the day went on and a big dip right before closing. For the most part, TSLA followed the broader markets down today (which was no surprise with shorts taking advantage of sub 4M volume). The surprise came in the final 25 minutes of market action as the NASDAQ and DOW both did swan dives but TSLA buyers appeared with significant volume and created a nice rise until just a couple minutes before close. I guess I wasn't the only buyer looking for bargains on a low-volume Friday afternoon before a holiday. Fortunately, I grabbed a couple more calls below 311.
Today's NASDAQ trading
Ever since Nov 27, shorts have been on the warpath and trading the majority of TSLA shares every day
So, how have longs and shorts fared this year? On the last trading day of 2016, TSLA traded at 213.69. That's a rise of over 45% in the stock price this year. Hoping you all enjoyed that full rise and hoping 2018 brings us even higher returns.
How have the shorts fared in the past year? According to Ihor Dusaniwsky, they're down $3.39 Billion for the year. Being a long-term TSLA short continues to be a really bad idea. Shorts have begun some covering in the past two weeks. Let's hope it's the beginning of a trend.
There's so much misinformation out there regarding Q4 Model 3 delivery expectations that it is really difficult to predict what the market will do when delivery numbers are released on Jan 2 or Jan 3. From virtually every angle (supplier parts orders, Model 3 sightings, delivery lots filled to overflowing numbers, etc.) Model 3 production has really improved in recent weeks. Once 5,000/week production is achieved, this stock will be red hot, if not considerably before that date.
Have a happy new year!
Conditions:
* Dow down 118 (0.48%)
* NASDAQ down 47 (0.67%)
* TSLA 311.35, down 4.01 (1.27%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* Oil 60.42, up 0.58 (0.97%)
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