Possible refresh of Model X

[bob_p]

A "refresh" would have some significant design changes to the interior and/or exterior.

Changing out components like the battery or charging hardware wouldn't be viewed as a "refresh", just new features - something Tesla is doing continuously.

The next major change will likely be support for V3 supercharging. If this can be done with the current battery packs, then some changes may be needed in the charging port/hardware to accommodate the higher charging rate. This could require changing the battery pack, possible shifting to the batteries being used in the Model 3.

S & X sales seem to be holding well - and with Tesla emphasis on increasing manufacturing of the Model 3, completing the designs of the Model Y, Roadster 2.0 and Semi, along with the likelihood they'll establish new factories in China - seems less likely we'll see major changes in the S or X anytime soon.

With Tesla's focus on Full Self Driving - I wouldn't be surprised to see them hold off on a refresh until they are getting closer to rolling out FSD - and then redesign the interior for use when a driver will be optional.

 

[MXWing]

Elon has said himself that the model 3 production hell is not a technology issue, but rather a manufacturing issue (car assembly phase).

Unless the same engineering team is actually put into the assembly line, I tend to think the same folks are placed in to 2020 roaster project.

Read from many articles where the model 3 has better tech compared to x/s in term of battery tech (hold better charge long term, take lesser time to recharge), man, I feel model x/s is like a dinosaur.

That’s the rub. Remember that Elon is the senior vp of engineering, manufacturing, support and marketing.

Only so many parallel tasks he can do.

I mean he fired all the web contractors and hasn’t gotten around to fixing the ordering page.

Best explanation why I can’t place my P3 order yet.

 

[wdolson]

Tesla doesn't really have a VP of engineering, but JB Straubel is the head technical guy.

Sales of the Model S are going OK now because the Model 3 is only available in North America (last year 60% of their sales were overseas and the Model S and X are still the only cars available there). There is a backlog of Model 3 orders so anyone in the US who doesn't want to wait is getting an S or X. There is still the incentive for free supercharging with the S and X going on, but Tesla wants to end that eventually.

Many people who have had an S and recently got a 3 have said the S seems kind of tired compared to the 3. The S is bigger, has the hatchback, and two display screens, but most people feel the interior of the 3 is better laid out, back seat headroom is better, and it's more efficient. Additionally what you get for the money with the Model 3 is much more. The S is more car, but costs 2X what the 3 does, and when there isn't a longer wait for the 3, that will hurt S sales.

At minimum Tesla needs to do something to address the shortcomings of the Model S vs the 3 and it will become critical as Model 3 orders catch up with the backlog. Otherwise the Model S could see a crash in orders and it won't be economical to make it any more.

Another thing Tesla is going to want to do is incorporate as much of the parts from the Model 3 into the S and X as possible. The Model S refresh in 2016 was mostly incorporating things introduced on the X into the S. If they share as many parts across the cars as possible, that has several benefits. First it reduces production costs. It also makes things easier for the programmers.

If the S and X get cheaper to build, Tesla could cut prices down so the gap between the 3 and S is smaller and still keep profit margins up.

Tesla will eventually want to put the 2170 cells into the S and X, but they won't do it until there is enough extra production to cover the 3 and the S and X. They will likely roll it out like they did with the 100 KWh battery packs, introduce it on the PXXXD first, then roll it out with the cheaper versions later.

 

[Mrcook4590]

I just want the old 7 seat configuration with the monopost seats so I can purchase a 100D. I don't think I could get one with the new fold flat seats. <shudder>

 

[nilspjac]

Adreed with wdolson. And with Jaguar just out with the I-PACE, and both Jaguar and Mercedes almost ready with their SUVs/crossovers, I really HOPE Tesla has a refresh up their sleeve, it would be foolish to rest on their laurels. You would think, with that many employees, they would be able to set a side a couple of designers to keep the S/X updated. When you enter an I-PACE, while the X may by "cooler", you immediately sense another level of quality and "feel". Tesla needs to up their game.

I'm a day one reservation holder for Model 3, but after months of subliminal messaging, finally my wife admitted she would rather drive the X. (The test drive helped.) But since I've got this mental disorder/angst for buying stuff that is about to be updated (goes for anything from computers, TVs to fridges..), I'm hesitant to pull the trigger for an X now. All I need is a more Model 3 like interior with a nice HUD. I'm not expecting switch to 2170s or a switch to permanent magnet type electric motors.That is further down the line, is my guess.

 

[Peteski]

Adreed with wdolson. And with Jaguar just out with the I-PACE, and both Jaguar and Mercedes almost ready with their SUVs/crossovers, I really HOPE Tesla has a refresh up their sleeve, it would be foolish to rest on their laurels. You would think, with that many employees, they would be able to set a side a couple of designers to keep the S/X updated. When you enter an I-PACE, while the X may by "cooler", you immediately sense another level of quality and "feel". Tesla needs to up their game.

I'm a day one reservation holder for Model 3, but after months of subliminal messaging, finally my wife admitted she would rather drive the X. (The test drive helped.) But since I've got this mental disorder/angst for buying stuff that is about to be updated (goes for anything from computers, TVs to fridges..), I'm hesitant to pull the trigger for an X now. All I need is a more Model 3 like interior with a nice HUD. I'm not expecting switch to 2170s or a switch to permanent magnet type electric motors.That is further down the line, is my guess.

I can tell you that the X is a much more family practical proposition than the iPace and the quality of the iPace is being over-hyped by the media. I sat in an FE show car the other week and it didn't exactly blow my mind. The X is a "wow" car to sit in with the panoramic windscreen, airy cabin and all the tech. The iPace is just another CUV that happens to be electric. Even their own F-Pace is more practical for a family of 4 or 5 going on a trip.

I'd love to see an all new S setting a new benchmark in the next couple of years and an X to follow soon after. The S is still amazing for a car released back in 2012, but they will need a fresh new design when the competition hots up in 2020. But until then, direct competitors will still be very thin on the ground in reality. The reality is that if Tesla's design team is not already in the process of designing a new "S" then they will struggle to compete with cars released in 2019/20 and beyond. The X will face more serious competition too, but it's not as far into its product lifecycle having been released in 2016 (even though it was very late to market). Realistically, you would have thought Tesla would want to churn out the current X until at least 2021/22, maybe with a mild facelift in 2019/20 to keep it as fresh as possible.

This is all presuming Tesla actually intend to stay in the S/X market long term.

 

[sub]

Sales of the model S/X seem to disprove the notion by the internet experts here that Tesla NEEDS to update them. Tesla isn't run by idiots, it's a business that exists to make a profit, I trust they have a plan.

I find the OPINION that the model X is dated laughable. I don't remember the exact ramp dates but my gurstimation is it's only been ~2 years and only ~110k on the road world wide. Even when I'm visiting the Bay Area, the Mecca of Tesla, I do not see many Model X.

I'm tired of the "cheap interior" comments but whatever, I'm perfectly happy with the interior and I've owned numerous BMW's. Buttons and switches do not make an interior nice, and I prefer the current material over leather. Regardless, sales #'s say that the interior is just fine. I think all Fords are garbage but I'm pretty confident their sales numbers over ride my internet expert opinion.

 

[outie]

Sales of the model S/X seem to disprove the notion by the internet experts here that Tesla NEEDS to update them. Tesla isn't run by idiots, it's a business that exists to make a profit, I trust they have a plan.

I find the OPINION that the model X is dated laughable. I don't remember the exact ramp dates but my gurstimation is it's only been ~2 years and only ~110k on the road world wide. Even when I'm visiting the Bay Area, the Mecca of Tesla, I do not see many Model X.

I'm tired of the "cheap interior" comments but whatever, I'm perfectly happy with the interior and I've owned numerous BMW's. Buttons and switches do not make an interior nice, and I prefer the current material over leather. Regardless, sales #'s say that the interior is just fine. I think all Fords are garbage but I'm pretty confident their sales numbers over ride my internet expert opinion.

I don’t think Model x is due for refresh just yet, maybe next year or so. It’s not common to see cars getting refresh/LCI in 2 years time. Granted this is Tesla and it shouldn’t follow industry norms.

As for not being common, I have to disagree. I have once came to a 4 way stop sign seeing 2 other X total 3 including mine, all in the same color! Then, once I made the turn there was another X approaching on the opposite direction. Yea we could have a mini car meet at the stop sign. That’s how common they are here in SoCal.

 

[wdolson]

These days I almost always see at least one other Tesla when I'm out. A week back I only saw Model Xs, three of them in different places around town. Though I see a lot more Ss than anything else. I saw a Model 3 last Saturday.

 

[Peteski]

I don’t think Model x is due for refresh just yet, maybe next year or so. It’s not common to see cars getting refresh/LCI in 2 years time. Granted this is Tesla and it shouldn’t follow industry norms.

As for not being common, I have to disagree. I have once came to a 4 way stop sign seeing 2 other X total 3 including mine, all in the same color! Then, once I made the turn there was another X approaching on the opposite direction. Yea we could have a mini car meet at the stop sign. That’s how common they are here in SoCal.

The X may be a common sight in SoCal, but they are still as rare as rocking horse poop in the UK. There is literally only our car in the local town and I've seen about 3 or 4 out and about on the road this year, compared to about a million Audis, Mercs, BMWs. The Model S is a more common sight, maybe see a handful every week, but maybe that's around 1 per 1000 or so German equivalents. They are getting quite popular in London though, my wife was there on business last week and spotted loads of them, X and S.

The Model X is definitely not looking dated! Neither does the facelift S to be honest. But the perception will be of ageing cars when there is eventually some competition, but that's still a few years away yet. The Jaguar iPace is aimed at a different audience with its traditional interior - even looks like an ICE car from the outside with the big front grille. Also their production volume is going to be so low as to make no difference to Tesla sales.

If I was a Tesla product planner, I would be looking at 2020 as an ideal release date for a brand new Model S and 2021/22 for a new X. Basically in time to compete directly with all the brand new European competitors.

 

[nilspjac]

Tesla sure is a common sight in Oslo, Norway. The area has around a million people, yet has 2600+ Model X registrations and more than 9000 Model S registrations. They're everywhere. I see dozens and dozens on my commute, lots of them in my neighborhood. So yeah, they're becoming boring for some people, part of the reason why there are thousands waiting for the I-PACE, Audi Q7 e-Tron Quattro, Mercedes EQ etc. People want cars not everyone else has.

To me it doesn't matter, as I value the Tesla enhanced autopilot, the layout of the 6 seat config, OTA updates and free supercharging (which will soon be even faster). I'm not expecting a full exterior refresh for some time either, but since Tesla is not "bound" by model years, they could/should adjust the interior to match the Model 3/the recently released patent application sooner rather than later. I'm ordering my X in a month or two, so I'm guessing I won't get it. But waiting even longer robs me of driving the X, so there's that.

 

[sub]

By the logic here, Tesla better have model 3 2.0 ready to be realeased in Q4 this year because there will be close to if not more model 3's on the road by that time, if not, due sure by Q1 2019.

Model S seems dated to those of us that have been following Tesla for many years but even they are still a pretty rare site outside of some major cities. There are many people that have still never seen a Tesla in person.

The nice thing about Tesla is they have consistently updated the guts so updates are all cosmetic (interior and sheer metal). Still not easy to do but beats designing another "new and improved" way of burning gas with each new model.