Post Elon Update Poll on FSD

[AndreP]

When did he say level 4? They aren’t even working on level 4…

Analysts specifically referenced Level 4 in their questions and Elon didn't say that it wouldn't be Level 4, he talked about how they will "achieve Full Self-driving".

Worth mentioning that Elon's entire value proposition around FSD is increasing utilization and having your car out driving people around rather than being parked most of the time, and the goal is to reduce transportation costs. I doubt Elon thinks it makes sense to pay for FSD so it can just drive you around like some type of next-level personal chauffeur.

Elon also thinks this could exacerbate traffic problems and that boring tunnels will be another part of the solution.

 

[PhantomX]

Can current suite of hardwares reach Level 4? Also, is Tesla ready to be liable for any accident while driving under L4? Seems like a huge financial liability for the company

 

[Sigma4Life]

Sorry, I am definitely not seeing the level of capability or progress in FSD Beta to believe that we are anywhere close to this being the case. As much as I admire Elon's gumption and drive to get things done, I really don't think he appreciates the barriers to FSD, and he's demonstrated this since 2016.

I'd generally be okay with his optimistic attitude (it doesn't matter too much to me personally whether FSD becomes reality in 2022 or 2028), except for the fact that his optimism in this area has shifted his (and thus Tesla's) focus away from the $25,000 vehicle in favor of just creating a fleet of autonomous vehicles so that instead of people buying $25K vehicles, they will just hail robotaxis and not own a car at all. I am extremely disappointed at this apparent shift in strategy, not because I don't think that's the eventual point the auto industry will reach, but rather because I believe that point is years (1-2 decades?) out and that in the meantime others are going to swoop in and capture the sub-$30K vehicle market.

They are selling every car they can make at $50k and above. I don't see any reason to rush to sell a $25k car until the higher end market is exhausted. What sane company rushes to sell low margin widgets instead of selling the same number of widgets at a much higher margin?

 

[hatch]

I think you bring up a good point about insurance but in my case a 30% savings on my Model Y insurance is less than $300 so that isn't enough at least for me to worry about. It's also interesting that teenagers today don't nearly have the same passion for driving as the baby boomer generation did so many people won't share you concern about not driving. I for one wonder if my young grandchildren (ages 2-8) will drive much anyway especially with both families also owning Teslas and the grandkids have seen my FSD in action. (simple drives only)
Teens Don't Have Interest in Driving Anymore and That's OK

Sadly, i think you're correct. But i believe people that drive, experience something special. Those that don't drive are deprived of this. And the more engagement required, the more it is evident to the driver that they are doing something special. Before my grandson got his first car, i tried without success to convince him the merits of driving stick. He just did not understand why someone would want to go thru all that effort.

When the time came for him to get a car, i was able to give him mine - a 2002 compact car with a stick. I spent a day with him and left him at the point where he was competent enough to not have an accident. A few days later, he called me up and thanked me profusely, saying "I had no idea how great driving stick is!" Now when i ride with him, i can see he's really enjoying driving. And considering the vehicle, it's NOT because the car is so awesome!

I believe taking away driving is removing a very special pleasure available to us. As big tech gets bigger, special pleasures of life seem to be disappearing. For those reading this that say "how can driving be special?", i feel very sad. The more we merge ourselves with technology, the less human we will feel.

Please, everyone - just think on this. Try not to simply dismiss me as someone stuck in the past, afraid of change and "progress". I'm absolutely convinced that part of our humanity is at stake.

​

 

[Sigma4Life]

Analysts specifically referenced Level 4 in their questions and Elon didn't say that it wouldn't be Level 4, he talked about how they will "achieve Full Self-driving".

Worth mentioning that Elon's entire value proposition around FSD is increasing utilization and having your car out driving people around rather than being parked most of the time, and the goal is to reduce transportation costs. I doubt Elon thinks it makes sense to pay for FSD so it can just drive you around like some type of next-level personal chauffeur.

Elon also thinks this could exacerbate traffic problems and that boring tunnels will be another part of the solution.

I disagree. I think the current price is based on it being a form of advanced AP on city streets, or a 'personal chauffeur' as you mentioned. Once robotaxi level of autonomy is reached the price will be significantly more than $12k. I think once true L5 is reached the price of FSD will be more like $50k with incremental prices below that for limited features.

 

[RTPEV]

They are selling every car they can make at $50k and above. I don't see any reason to rush to sell a $25k car until the higher end market is exhausted. What sane company rushes to sell low margin widgets instead of selling the same number of widgets at a much higher margin?

My comment should be taken in the context of Tesla fulfilling its mission of transitioning the world to sustainable transport as quickly as possible, and I think Elon's focus on self-driving is creating a distraction that is going to inhibit this transition, not accelerate it.

I agree with you at the current time that it doesn't make sense to release a $25K vehicle. But with current and future factory expansions, and looking longer term, I would like to know that Tesla is at least working on something in its product pipeline for when the $60K vehicle market becomes more saturated. No doubt they will continue to make good money selling those $60K vehicles, but they also should be able to expand into the $30K vehicle market (with additional factories in places like India and maybe a second one in China) and help/push the world towards full electrification even faster. This is why I am disappointed with Elon's statement that they are not pursing the $25K vehicle at all. But oh, they are really pushing forward with Optimus--that will certainly help! (i.e. this is another area that while worthwhile long term is just going to be a huge distraction and uphill battle)

 

[Daveb25]

I disagree. I think the current price is based on it being a form of advanced AP on city streets, or a 'personal chauffeur' as you mentioned. Once robotaxi level of autonomy is reached the price will be significantly more than $12k. I think once true L5 is reached the price of FSD will be more like $50k with incremental prices below that for limited features.

True level 5 will likely not be a one time cost. Will be $xxxxx amount initially and $xxx a month as the manufacturer will have to take liability for any accidents. The monthly fee will be just another form of insurance against payouts.

 

[Sigma4Life]

Sadly, i think you're correct. But i believe people that drive, experience something special. Those that don't drive are deprived of this. And the more engagement required, the more it is evident to the driver that they are doing something special. Before my grandson got his first car, i tried without success to convince him the merits of driving stick. He just did not understand why someone would want to go thru all that effort.

When the time came for him to get a car, i was able to give him mine - a 2002 compact car with a stick. I spent a day with him and left him at the point where he was competent enough to not have an accident. A few days later, he called me up and thanked me profusely, saying "I had no idea how great driving stick is!" Now when i ride with him, i can see he's really enjoying driving. And considering the vehicle, it's NOT because the car is so awesome!

I believe taking away driving is removing a very special pleasure available to us. As big tech gets bigger, special pleasures of life seem to be disappearing. For those reading this that say "how can driving be special?", i feel very sad. The more we merge ourselves with technology, the less human we will feel.

Please, everyone - just think on this. Try not to simply dismiss me as someone stuck in the past, afraid of change and "progress". I'm absolutely convinced that part of our humanity is at stake.

​

I think being 'human' is relative. I can imagine when cars were first introduced people didn't like the idea of riding a machine instead of a horse. For those that enjoy driving, I think manual driving will be around for a very long time. Maybe 50 - 100 years from now we'll reach a point where no one wants to drive and few people even know how to drive because FSD is so common.

 

[AndreP]

I disagree. I think the current price is based on it being a form of advanced AP on city streets, or a 'personal chauffeur' as you mentioned. Once robotaxi level of autonomy is reached the price will be significantly more than $12k. I think once true L5 is reached the price of FSD will be more like $50k with incremental prices below that for limited features.

Elon questioned the value proposition of the subscription version in its current state in another recent earnings call...

Will a $50k self-driving software package + vehicle price result in lower transportation costs for end users? I honestly don't even know what this is supposed to look like, but I question the economics of this for someone who owns a self-driving Tesla and would apparently be giving rides in their own car for less than the cost of hitching a ride on a city bus.

But FSD in general isn't about having a personal chauffeur in your own vehicle, this is about owning a Tesla with FSD and letting it drive around during the day when it otherwise would be parked thus increasing utilization.

I truly wonder how many earlier and current FSD adopters will even be driving their original vehicle when Robotaxi functionality is realized

 

[Sigma4Life]

Elon questioned the value proposition of the subscription version in its current state in another recent earnings call...

Will a $50k self-driving software package + vehicle price result in lower transportation costs for end users? I honestly don't even know what this is supposed to look like, but I question the economics of this for someone who owns a self-driving Tesla and would apparently be giving rides in their own car for less than the cost of hitching a ride on a city bus.

But FSD in general isn't about having a personal chauffeur in your own vehicle, this is about owning a Tesla with FSD and letting it drive around during the day when it otherwise would be parked thus increasing utilization.

I truly question how many earlier and current FSD adopters will even be driving their original vehicle when Robotaxi functionality is realized

I'm not a fan of public transportation, nor am I a fan of having random people ride around in my personal car. Once FSD is fully realized I'll use it to drive when I don't feel like it. I'd love to be able to get in the car and take a 30 minute nap while it drives me across town. I'd buy a second car that I don't personally use for robotaxi purposes.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Elon questioned the value proposition of the subscription version in its current state in another recent earnings call...

Will a $50k self-driving software package + vehicle price result in lower transportation costs for end users? I honestly don't even know what this is supposed to look like, but I question the economics of this for someone who owns a self-driving Tesla and would apparently be giving rides in their own car for less than the cost of hitching a ride on a city bus.

But FSD in general isn't about having a personal chauffeur in your own vehicle, this is about owning a Tesla with FSD and letting it drive around during the day when it otherwise would be parked thus increasing utilization.

I truly wonder how many earlier and current FSD adopters will even be driving their original vehicle when Robotaxi functionality is realized

Also, Tesla has said they will take a cut of the revenue from any robotaxi usage. I suspect only Tesla will actually make any money from robotaxis (hypothetically speaking since it's not going to happen).
I'd like the car to be able to pick up tools I loan to friends. haha

 

[EVNow]

Elon stated (on the record) that before end of this year, FSD will be "much safer than a human driving" and that he "would be shocked" if FSD does not reach Level 4 autonomous driving is not reached by Dec 31 2022. What say you?

Bad quote. He didn't say "L4" - he answered a question that used the phrase L4.

The correct quote is - FSD Beta will be safer than humans this year. He has not clearly defined what safety rates they are using, though.

Martin Viecha​

​

Thank you. And the last question from investors is, Elon mentioned Level 4 autonomy could be achieved this year. Is it based off initial FSD beta rollout experience, or is Level 4 ability predicated on Dojo being completed online?​

​

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect​

​

As mentioned earlier, Dojo is not required for full self-driving. You know, it should have a positive effect on the cost of training networks. You know, it's not just a question like does it get to full self-driving but really kind of like the "march of nines" of reliability, is it 99.999% reliable or 99.999999% reliable. This is -- it gets nutty.​

​

So, obviously, we want to get to close to perfection as possible. So, frankly, being safe than human is a low standard, not a high standard. People are very, very lossy, often distracted, tired, you know, texting. Anyway, it's remarkable that we don't have more accidents.​

​

So, it's -- yeah. So actually being better than a human, I think, is relatively very forward, frankly, how do you be 1,000% better or 10,000% better. Yeah, that's what, you know, gets much harder. But I think anyone who's been in the FSD beta program, I mean, if they were just to plot the progress of the beta interventions per mile, it's obviously trending to, you know, a very small number of interventions per mile and pace of improvement is fast.​

​

And there's several profound improvements to the FSD stack that are coming, you know, in the next few months. So, yeah, I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.​

 

[Daniel in SD]

Bad quote. He didn't say "L4" - he answered a question that used the phrase L4.

The correct quote is - FSD Beta will be better than humans in terms of "failure rates" this year. He has not clearly defined what rates he is looking at, though.

Martin Viecha​

​

Thank you. And the last question from investors is, Elon mentioned Level 4 autonomy could be achieved this year. Is it based off initial FSD beta rollout experience, or is Level 4 ability predicated on Dojo being completed online?​

​

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect​

​

As mentioned earlier, Dojo is not required for full self-driving. You know, it should have a positive effect on the cost of training networks. You know, it's not just a question like does it get to full self-driving but really kind of like the "march of nines" of reliability, is it 99.999% reliable or 99.999999% reliable. This is -- it gets nutty.​

​

So, obviously, we want to get to close to perfection as possible. So, frankly, being safe than human is a low standard, not a high standard. People are very, very lossy, often distracted, tired, you know, texting. Anyway, it's remarkable that we don't have more accidents.​

​

So, it's -- yeah. So actually being better than a human, I think, is relatively very forward, frankly, how do you be 1,000% better or 10,000% better. Yeah, that's what, you know, gets much harder. But I think anyone who's been in the FSD beta program, I mean, if they were just to plot the progress of the beta interventions per mile, it's obviously trending to, you know, a very small number of interventions per mile and pace of improvement is fast.​

​

And there's several profound improvements to the FSD stack that are coming, you know, in the next few months. So, yeah, I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.​

What will make the system not Level 4?
I suppose it's possible that they'll release robotaxi software only in states that don't use the SAE taxonomy and then lobby the other states to get rid of it...

 

[EVNow]

What will make the system not Level 4?
I suppose it's possible that they'll release robotaxi software only in states that don't use the SAE taxonomy and then lobby the other states to get rid of it...

Better than human safety <> "Level 4".

It is not clear what is level 4 ... thats why I keep saying levels are stupid. But people still keep insisting on using levels.

At what safety rate is a system L4 - for a given ODD ?

 

[wensai]

It is not clear what is level 4 ... thats why I keep saying levels are stupid. But people still keep insisting on using levels.

Whatever people use to criticize Elon's statements/predictions is stupid, right? You always try to drag the conversation into pedantic details to distract from the fact he keeps promising robotaxis imminently

 

[Daniel in SD]

Better than human safety <> "Level 4".

It is not clear what is level 4 ... thats why I keep saying levels are stupid. But people still keep insisting on using levels.

At what safety rate is a system L4 - for a given ODD ?

Yes, but robotaxi >= Level 4 which is what Elon is talking about and he defined (loosely) what safety rate he thinks is acceptable for a robotaxi.

I'm just curious what you think will make it not L4 because it's hard for me to imagine it. I feel that I have been trying my hardest not to use SAE levels but people do keep bringing it up. haha.
And of course it's perfectly clear what L4 is if you read the definition.

 

[EVNow]

Whatever people use to criticize Elon's statements/predictions is stupid, right? You always try to drag the conversation into pedantic details to distract from the fact he keeps promising robotaxis imminently

Dude, you joined this board months back - we have been talking about levels for years. Go back and read.

And if you think what I'm saying is "pedantic" - how about you answer my simple question. What are the safety levels needed for each level. If there is no safety level, how would one certify ?

 

[nvx1977]

I think the point that @hatch is making (and it's an excellent one) is that for those who do not want autonomous driving, or cannot (because their typical trips may not be conducive to autonomous driving, or they live in a very rural area with insufficient density of robotaxis), their insurance rates (because they are not using autonomous driving) may increase significantly. The way I see it working out is that insurance rates will not actually go down (or at least not much), but as the shift to autonomous driving happens, premiums for those who do not take advantage of autonomous driving will skyrocket.

It's impossible to know what will happen of course, but I see this as at least a possibility.

Why would insurance for a manually driven car go up more than what it is today? The risk profile for the manual driver does not change. I see the autonomous' fleet rates going down because of reduced risk of crashes, and therefore in comparison, manual driving insurance looks expensive.

 

[EVNow]

And of course it's perfectly clear what L4 is if you read the definition.

And its perfectly useless.

How would you certify an AV as being at a particular level ? Afterall every car will make some mistakes - so without actual defined safety levels - its totally useless.

I declare the nearest elevator as L4 - within its ODD.

 

[EVNow]

Why would insurance for a manually driven car go up more than what it is today? The risk profile for the manual driver does not change. I see the autonomous' fleet rates going down because of reduced risk of crashes, and therefore in comparison, manual driving insurance looks expensive.

It will go up if fewer insurers want to insure. There might also be higher judicial costs if someone drives manually and gets into an accident ...

Basically when someone becomes "old and obsolete" it gets more expensive to maintain. Not just in relative terms, but in actual costs as well.