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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

In which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States


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Per EV Sales Growth was a Highlight of 2022 - Cox Automotive Inc., "EV share of new-vehicle sales in 2022 hit 5.8%..." Per A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book - Cox Automotive Inc., "In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates."
From https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/business/hybrid-cars-electric-vehicles.html (snapshot at Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance as All-Electric Sales Slow if you get hit by a paywall):
"Americans bought a record 1.2 million electric vehicles last year, a gain of about 46 percent and a 7.6 percent share of all new car sales, according to Cox. But hybrid sales rose even faster, up 65 percent to more than 1.2 million, lifting their market share to 8 percent from 5.5 percent, according to Edmunds. Throw in plug-in hybrids, and nearly one in 10 new cars pairs a gasoline engine with electric motors to save fuel and boost performance.

Analysts say stubbornly high electric car prices and worries about public charging are pushing some car shoppers to hybrids, including renters or urbanites who can’t charge a battery-powered car at home. Hybrids deliver savings at the pump with no need to plug in for hours or plan trips around charging stops. Their batteries are much smaller and cost a lot less than the batteries in fully electric vehicles.

Buyers paid about $42,500 on average for hybrids in November, according to Edmunds, compared with $60,500 for electric vehicles and $47,500 for conventional models. There is a smorgasbord of affordable hybrid models, many starting around $30,000 — including a stylishly redesigned Prius that returns a model-record 57 miles per gallon. The electric vehicle market, by contrast, remains top-heavy with luxury offerings."
 
I get that EV sales did not quite grow as much as the year before, but so many headlines about "EV sales slow".
Growth of 46% YOY is not "sales slow" but you have to get the clicks.

At this growth rate ...
2024 - 11%
2025 - 16.2%
2026 - 23.6%
2027 - 34.5%
2028 - 50%

This ignores S curve acceleration. And I think it is fair that cars may not follow S curves. They are the 2nd largest purchase by dollars in people's lives. They are going to be more conservative. Throw in high interest rates, student loans, unaffordable housing and there are headwinds that did not exist for large TVs and cellphones. And there is the problem of the legacy dealer network and mining enough lithium and other minerals. None of that existed for prior s curve tech adoption products.

Anyway, 46% YOY is faster than the consensus in the poll.

To clarify, I do not think the above timeline is an assumption or expectation of any kind. I don't think it will happen because some car types are much harder to electrify. I have driven electric for 11 years with household all EV for 8.5. I think ICE cars should be outlawed by 2030. But I don't really expect to be at 50% EV by 2028.
 
"Ellie Simpson, another Uber driver and a wedding planner, faced the same issue...
...
“Living in NYC, most of us cannot charge at home, and this station is 30 minutes from my house. So I should be able to charge to maximum capacity. Instead of charging us, they [Tesla and local authorities] should focus on getting more freestanding stations,” Simpson said.

In a letter Simpson plans to send to Uber, she has said, “The incentives offered by Uber for having an EV do not compensate for the lost drive time and earnings. At this point, being part of a rideshare program has become more of a burden than a benefit.”"
 
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NYC - only 45% of households own a car. The highest rates are in Staten Island and Queens bordering on Nassau county - ie where people have SFH often enough. You can find plenty of garages in SFH in Staten Island.

Manhattan - 22% of households own a car. A total of 160,000 personally owned vehicles (neglecting the few that have multiple). There are over 60 parking garages that have EV charging in Manhattan.

This is mostly an issue for rideshare drivers that NYC is incentivizing without waiting for adequate charging. Presumably this represents 5,000 cars or less. There are 17,000 total EVs in NYC and 13,000 medallion cabs. Owners that don't rideshare charge at home or in their parking garage. If traveling, they aren't supercharging in NYC but in the Hamptons. I am 100% sure there are a few owners that don't rideshare who supercharge instead of charging at nighttime parking spots but it is still a small number.

But what relevance does 5,000 cars out of 15 million cars sold in the US have? Looking at ridesharing in NYC is a great example of an edge case. Keep in mind that Amsterdam does just fine. I imagine the cities in Norway do just fine. It can be done but NYC encouraged EVs without waiting for infrastructure.

You can worry about the edge cases when we are well over 50%. But, yes, sometimes, there will be too many EVs and not enough charging. Have you tried to find gas in Manhattan? It is not easy.
 
You can worry about the edge cases when we are well over 50%. But, yes, sometimes, there will be too many EVs and not enough charging. Have you tried to find gas in Manhattan? It is not easy.
You've missed the point and the bigger picture.

My point was there are tons of people who cannot or will not charge at home. NY also adopted rules like CA but from looking at Governor Hochul Drives Forward New York's Transition to Clean Transportation, it's even tougher and I see no allowance for up to 20% being PHEVs.
"It would require an increasing percentage of new light-duty vehicle sales to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) starting with 35 percent of sales in model year 2026, 68 percent of sales by 2030, and 100 percent of sales by 2035."

If New Car Sales by State - Full Year 2022 Vehicle Sales Report is correct, there were 780K new vehicles sold in NY in 2022.

From Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - Electric Vehicle Registrations by State, Guide to Electric Vehicles in New York and Addressing climate, N.Y. seeks electric vehicle expansion, there are probably 84K to 150K BEVs on NY state roads. Look at the problems they're already having given your "edge cases" of just these "5000 or less" rideshare drivers + the small number of BEVs vs. what mandates will/might cause. Eventually ALL the taxis and rideshares added will be BEVs, then you have many others who will be forced (?) by the NY "law" to buy BEVs if they want a new car. Many of those won't be able to charge at home either.

Imagine adding 700K BEVs per year in NY every year in 2035 and beyond! This doesn't include the ramp up. And it gets pretty cold in NY for months at a time too.

When the infrastructure isn't enough to keep up, this will be in the news all the time and NY residents will get fed up because they will eventually experience it. That will cause a slowdown in the acceleration of BEV demand.
 
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In some areas, Tesla has to build supercharging with a "if you build it they will come" kind of speculative investment mentality. In this case, NYC has intentionally driven demand for electric rideshare vehicles. So Tesla will have to play catch up and build superchargers more quickly.

Some of these charging stations have lines because the parking is free in those lots. Right now at 7 am, all the pay to park locations (mall parking etc) in Queens and Brooklyn near me have charging stalls available. So maybe there are lines at certain times of the day and people will also have to figure out how to time their charging and maybe pay a few bucks for a parking garage.
 
You've missed the point and the bigger picture.

My point was there are tons of people who cannot or will not charge at home. NY also adopted rules like CA but from looking at Governor Hochul Drives Forward New York's Transition to Clean Transportation, it's even tougher and I see no allowance for up to 20% being PHEVs.
"It would require an increasing percentage of new light-duty vehicle sales to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) starting with 35 percent of sales in model year 2026, 68 percent of sales by 2030, and 100 percent of sales by 2035."

If New Car Sales by State - Full Year 2022 Vehicle Sales Report is correct, there were 780K new vehicles sold in NY in 2022.

From Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - Electric Vehicle Registrations by State, Guide to Electric Vehicles in New York and Addressing climate, N.Y. seeks electric vehicle expansion, there are probably 84K to 150K BEVs on NY state roads. Look at the problems they're already having given your "edge cases" of just these "5000 or less" rideshare drivers + the small number of BEVs vs. what mandates will/might cause. Eventually ALL the taxis and rideshares added will be BEVs, then you have many others who will be forced (?) by the NY "law" to buy BEVs if they want a new car. Many of those won't be able to charge at home either.

Imagine adding 700K BEVs per year in NY every year in 2035 and beyond! This doesn't include the ramp up. And it gets pretty cold in NY for months at a time too.

When the infrastructure isn't enough to keep up, this will be in the news all the time and NY residents will get fed up because they will eventually experience it. That will cause a slowdown in the acceleration of BEV demand.
I don't think he missed the point. The point is that this is one of the densest urban environments, with a relatively high proportion of households who can't charge at home, with a sudden stoking of demand for BEVs by the government _specifically for rideshare_, which was introduced without building advanced or parallel charging infrastructure.

The government will add some more infrastructure, although it's only going to be about 50 chargers at 13 lots. There, it'll be paid parking, but the 1 hour of parking will be deducted from the cost of the charging, so effectively parking for charging would be free, _if_ they can get in and out in 1 hour.

There's also the company Revel that's opened some charging and will be building more. Parking will be free for the first hour of charging.

That parking lot with the Superchargers is a _free_ lot, while others require more payment, so drivers are preferring it, and as one of the drivers said, they're driving 30 minutes to get there and wanting to charge to a high percentage. All of that is building lines.

If the additional infrastructure is added and spreads out charging, that will ease the pressure.

_If_ nothing is done about it, or added infrastructure is insufficient, the problem will grow, but if the infrastructure is built out, it should ease the problem. Other cities have successfully added on-street charging, and if the general market is expanding, access to charging becomes a marketable asset for property developers. There is already activity happening in adding larger numbers of L2 chargers to parking garages and other large lots in major EV markets.

So I see this as a current barrier that will hold back growth, but not something that will set a hard ceiling, as if we reach the point where infrastructure, rather than price, becomes the major sales barrier, it will be a very clear market signal and that'll result in charging infrastructure being built out both on and off street.
 
Do you not agree that the vast majority of the US is not built like Manhattan?

It is rather unique in the US. You realize that more heavily urban countries already have higher EV adoption rates than the US?

Over 50% of the US population lives in suburbs. 20% live in rural areas. There are 27% that consider themselves urban dwellers. I think you can certainly agree that urban dwellers have a lower rate of car ownership than suburb/rural.

And there is no urban area like Manhattan in the US. There are small pockets in many cities but they don't represent close to a majority of "urban areas".

I live in an urban area. I have a garage with 2 teslas in it. The percentage of cars owned in the US that are tied to dense urban areas without access to a plug is very small. Is it a barrier? - absolutely. It just isn't something that prevents 50% of new cars being EV. It is single digit percentage and I suppose any barrier is a barrier but it is minor.

The larger barrier is that people want massive cars to protect themselves from other massive cars on the highway - building these as EVs with good range gets pretty expensive. They want to be high up to see over the poors. But either way, we will legislate ICE cars out of existence in blue states well before 2040. That would be guess. But it is all just a guess - we live in relatively unpredictable times. I think we may it to 50% pretty quickly based on convenience/cost/acceleration/environment/tax credits alone. It approaches 50% in my circle and presumably the bay area also. My Florida Man friend just bought one to add to his Ram truck - because it was the cheapest (with certain features) in the market he was looking in.
 
Coupled with the IRA, Biden needs to bring the USA auto industry leaders together who are working toward this EV adoption initiative. These would be Tesla, GM, Ford and Stellantis. I would include VW as they are responsible for EA. Next, create a state of the state EV report semi-annually for the public. This report should include vehicle price bracket production and plans for all categories including trucks, charging in rural and urban locations both activity for performance review and planned, and battery component, mining, manufacturing and assembly activity and plans. Biden needs to acknowledge Tesla's leadership, give respect, and provide full transparency on how the USA manufactures are performing with the full lifecycle mining to batteries to vehicles to charging.
Between lack of PSA education built into the IRA for what life is like owning an EV and coordinated government and industry efforts, no wonder EV adoption has slowed, amongst other reasons. We cannot let China roll over us like they are doing to the EU.

The comparison of Manhattan to anywhere else is fair and its misstep of promoting EVs to cut pollution but not having the charging infrastructure ready is a similar misstep to the Biden approach nationally.

Lets look like other countries with massive support for EVs with proper infrastructure that is driving their massive EV adoption.
 
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Coupled with the IRA, Biden needs to bring the USA auto industry leaders together who are working toward this EV adoption initiative. These would be Tesla, GM, Ford and Stellantis. I would include VW as they are responsible for EA. Next, create a state of the state EV report semi-annually for the public. This report should include vehicle price bracket production and plans for all categories including trucks, charging in rural and urban locations both activity for performance review and planned, and battery component, mining, manufacturing and assembly activity and plans. Biden needs to acknowledge Tesla's leadership, give respect, and provide full transparency on how the USA manufactures are performing with the full lifecycle mining to batteries to vehicles to charging.
Between lack of PSA education built into the IRA for what life is like owning an EV and coordinated government and industry efforts, no wonder EV adoption has slowed, amongst other reasons. We cannot let China roll over us like they are doing to the EU.

The comparison of Manhattan to anywhere else is fair and its misstep of promoting EVs to cut pollution but not having the charging infrastructure ready is a similar misstep to the Biden approach nationally.

Lets look like other countries with massive support for EVs with proper infrastructure that is driving their massive EV adoption.

What do really do not need is government "help". They're doing enough to muck everything up right now! The EV adoption rate will work because it's a better idea. And, people get their souls soothed by knowing that they're helping the environment a bit.
 
People are always going to differ on the role of government. I've varied over my life along with my party affiliation since ostensibly there is a difference in philosophy at least.

Tesla would not have survived without government assistance and I believe it is still the number 2 EV manufacturer in the world and certainly number one in the US. We don't really need to look at BYD since that is a totally different system.

For a long time the carbon credits were the only profit that Tesla had. And the tax credit certainly didn't hurt.

So while I agree that EVs are "a better idea", there is still large barriers to getting that to production and distribution. Charging being a big one.

You can look at government work as mucking things up - and it often does. But that is a bit like a child blaming their parents for everything bad that happens to them. Decisions in society have to be made by someone/something in a collective manner. Whoever that is will be as corrupt and foolish as any human endeavor. Mistakes will be made. A shrinking role of government just leaves a power vacuum that is filled by something else - currently wealthy and corporations. That isn't likely to go well either....

Societies gradually get more complicated and the need for central systems (ie government) increases. That should be X's law but I don't know of who X is. Airtravel requires air traffic controllers and airplane safety measures beyond horse and buggies. It requires someone to build airports and to control routes. It requires security measures (and yes - these are currently ridiculous).

In the US, there is no appetite for increased government. The wealthy have convinced the population of this because they enjoy the power vacuum very much. It is amazing to me how this has happened and how blind the population is to this.
 
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People are always going to differ on the role of government. I've varied over my life along with my party affiliation since ostensibly there is a difference in philosophy at least.

Tesla would not have survived without government assistance and I believe it is still the number 2 EV manufacturer in the world and certainly number one in the US. We don't really need to look at BYD since that is a totally different system.

For a long time the carbon credits were the only profit that Tesla had. And the tax credit certainly didn't hurt.

So while I agree that EVs are "a better idea", there is still large barriers to getting that to production and distribution. Charging being a big one.

You can look at government work as mucking things up - and it often does. But that is a bit like a child blaming their parents for everything bad that happens to them. Decisions in society have to be made by someone/something in a collective manner. Whoever that is will be as corrupt and foolish as any human endeavor. Mistakes will be made. A shrinking role of government just leaves a power vacuum that is filled by something else - currently wealthy and corporations. That isn't likely to go well either....

Societies gradually get more complicated and the need for central systems (ie government) increases. That should be X's law but I don't know of who X is. Airtravel requires air traffic controllers and airplane safety measures beyond horse and buggies. It requires someone to build airports and to control routes. It requires security measures (and yes - these are currently ridiculous).

In the US, there is no appetite for increased government. The wealthy have convinced the population of this because they enjoy the power vacuum very much. It is amazing to me how this has happened and how blind the population is to this.
China is trying to demonstrate the benefits of a technocratic central government that is non-democratic and keeps the population in line using oppressive means. While all Americans would reject the non-democratic part, I have had immigrants from China who are now American citizens comment to me how clean and modern all the infrastructure is in China now and wonder why the US is so "dirty and backwards" in some ways. It actually kind of makes sense. The Chinese government doesn't have to deal with the democratic process of facing the potential backlash of taxpayers who have to pay for government spending on infrastructure investment like democracies do. If it just so happens that this non-democratic government is full of highly educated people, and there is enough cultural cohesion that propels their behavior in a certain direction, then you have what has resulted in China which is a technocratic central government pushing infrastructure investment priorities which are not perfect but are also not entirely as bad as we expect it to be from a non-democratic government. I just read an article about how due to the real estate doldrums, China's largest sector has become clean energy infrastructure investment. Whatever one thinks of the governance over there, it is remarkable to me how they went from having horrible air pollution in major cities where people would have to wear gas masks to becoming the global leader in renewable energy in just a few years. It's amazing how much wind and solar they have installed before the US has even barely installed its first offshore wind farm. One of the state owned power companies there owns dozens of wind farms already.

Hopefully the US democratic model demonstrates that we can accomplish these things too without all the undemocratic repression and oppression used in China. The US faces polarization-induced policy paralysis. The IRA was a good start but it relied on Democratic control of Congress and the presidency. Sometimes it is hard to see how we find common ground to move forward together in these polarized times.
 
My point is, its government AND industry working together, but with the EV leaders, leading. Elon, his execs, the other legacy leaders plus the entire USA battery supply path, know whats going on now. We can sprinkle in public group leaders as well. This collective would review whats working, not working and utilize government funds, aka IRA, to pinpoint the funds and efforts to facilitate changes to keep EV adoption going, increasing.
Seems the IRA was designed but for some, I will agree for a newly developed USA battery supply chain being influenced that was smart, there is a realtime gap from what these IRA founders designed to whats happening in the field.

For a Lightening owner over the last 24 months to have DCFC misery with Electrify America is despicable as this same government mandated the buildout of this EA network by VW. The very poor user experiencing with EA charging, that now the government has to provide new 2024 funds to fix the broken chargers is even more despicable. Here is where the govenment does not collaborate with industry but just throws the message and funds over the fence.
EA is an example of terrible government working, NOT, with industry.

My statement above is different, the EV industry leaders and government would collaborate with the leaders basically agreeing and directing, as experts, what the government should do in terms of messaging, education and funds. This configuration does work as we saw this with the NACS standard acceptance.
We need this now as Tesla, GM, Ford and Stellantis should be working together.

The next big change should be limiting the IRA funds to hybrids with much larger batteries, not the 25 mile range battery in a Wrangler that has access to $7500 vs a Tesla M3 with 300 miles of range that does not. Crazy. The government needs to not let the USA consumer, that is reluctant to go pure BEV waiting for the charging experience to improve, buy and sit with hybrids for too long for they will get stuck on that step that is long past.

Get the charging network to 100% coverage and reliability.
Help urban dwellers with charging infrastructure.
Get pure BEVs to be appealing to the new vehicle buyer and not hybrids.
Get the EV adoption back on track.

Prevent China from killing our USA auto industry.
 
The next big change should be limiting the IRA funds to hybrids with much larger batteries, not the 25 mile range battery in a Wrangler that has access to $7500 vs a Tesla M3 with 300 miles of range that does not. Crazy. The government needs to not let the USA consumer, that is reluctant to go pure BEV waiting for the charging experience to improve, buy and sit with hybrids for too long for they will get stuck on that step that is long past.

Get the charging network to 100% coverage and reliable

look at this site for whom is available for US tax credits and note the small decrease from 2022 to 2024 (now)
5 PHEV, 22 EV in 2022
5 PHEV 20 EV in 2024

I agree, the below is nuts
"Have a battery capacity of at least 7 kilowatt hours"
(should be at least 45 kilowatt hours at a min)

BUT when you consider from 2 years ago the number of EV's and PHEV's available IRA credits are quite constricted
EV's below from 2 years ago
1706387138545.png


PHEV available from 2 years ago with PITIFUL RANGES
1706387239360.png
 
The next big change should be limiting the IRA funds to hybrids with much larger batteries, not the 25 mile range battery in a Wrangler that has access to $7500 vs a Tesla M3 with 300 miles of range that does not. Crazy.
Hybrids (the kind you can't plug-in) aren't eligible for any Federal tax credit. That went away over a decade ago. Per Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After, Wrangler PHEV purchased in 2024 is eligible for $3750 Federal tax credit.

Besides the recently added battery critical minerals, components, etc. requirements is that the tax credit is calculated based upon battery capacity (kWh), not all-electric range. So, when gen 1 Volt came along, it conveniently had enough battery capacity to be eligible for the full $7500 tax credit. And, the amount is capped at $7500.
 
My point is, its government AND industry working together, but with the EV leaders, leading. Elon, his execs, the other legacy leaders plus the entire USA battery supply path, know whats going on now. We can sprinkle in public group leaders as well. This collective would review whats working, not working and utilize government funds, aka IRA, to pinpoint the funds and efforts to facilitate changes to keep EV adoption going, increasing.

If you give the government the ability to give out money, you give them control. And they don't let go. Just ask any doctor's office. Kids in the government with two years associate's degrees are deciding whether or not and how much they should pay doctors for complex surgeries. This is what happens when the government controls anything. The bureaucrats want control of everything.

Keep the government out of the monetary side, let them do the governing. That works.
 
If you give the government the ability to give out money, you give them control. And they don't let go. Just ask any doctor's office. Kids in the government with two years associate's degrees are deciding whether or not and how much they should pay doctors for complex surgeries. This is what happens when the government controls anything. The bureaucrats want control of everything.

Keep the government out of the monetary side, let them do the governing. That works.
Market don't even exist without a government. This rhetoric is highly simplistic.
 
I agree, the below is nuts
"Have a battery capacity of at least 7 kilowatt hours"
(should be at least 45 kilowatt hours at a min)
45kWh would be nuts.
Make it 32kWh and you're close to 100 miles AER at 3mi/kWh which would cover a ton of driving.
It would be far better to set an AER requirement instead of a capacity requirement.

Wrangler PHEV battery is 17kWh, which would have qualified for $7.5k under the old rules. So it's now lower than it would have been.
It's just an inefficient vehicle all round.
 
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Market don't even exist without a government. This rhetoric is highly simplistic.

Markets have always existed, governments have not. That's a ridiculous statement! Do you honestly think that nobody can buy and sell unless there's a government around? Sure, they don't use currency from some specific government, but that doesn't mean they can't trade.
 
Markets have always existed, governments have not. That's a ridiculous statement! Do you honestly think that nobody can buy and sell unless there's a government around? Sure, they don't use currency from some specific government, but that doesn't mean they can't trade.
Markets without government involve lots of private machine guns and lots of gunfights at the local saloon. There are anarchic parts of Africa where the only government is men in pickup trucks with AK-47s. So yes, you can have markets without government. Every person needs to own a few machine guns and ideally belong to a gang that is aligned with one of the local warlords.

But without a government, no, we can't have all of our nice and pretty Western cities, orderly living, and sophisticated markets.
 
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