The majority of the population procrastinate. They also believe depreciating goods get cheaper over time.
In general, my second statement is true under normal market operating conditions. We are not under normal market operating conditions.
In reality, the $7,500 tax credit matters less for Tesla than it does for other auto. Reason being is the tax credit ends up being a smaller percentage of the overall vehicle price compared to a strip model Volt.
People go to great lengths however to get a discount, even if they have to spend more than the "discount". Even as an economist I make irrational decisions based on emotional appeals and not always from optimal fiscal decisions.
I have already read anecdotes of regret from people saying they wish they pulled the trigger earlier due to rising prices of Paint, AWD, etc. For every one person posting here, there's another 1000 (for argument sake) that is thinking the same way.
Those who hesitate over forgone conclusions like they are getting a Model 3, while suffering from paralysis of analysis pay the most in the end the longer they wait.
They will pay the most in the end through
-Choice of desired motor levels are reduced to stock on hand.
-Tesla changing prices to match demand through end of 2018.
-Tesla eliminating choices to maximize production.
-Tesla focus on out the factory and in customers hands with the maximum output which makes delivery more inconsistent.
-Stress on if delivery will happen before 1/1/2019.
-Interest rates are on the rise and are CERTAIN to rise. FOMC already stated this is their intention. Cost of borrowing goes up.
-Not having a Model 3 AT ALL by end of 2018 due to a flux of people realizing what I am saying now over Thanksgiving dinner and going through a mad rush.
No matter what motor you desire, if you haven't heard yet, you better do it like YESTERDAY. If you are going to wait til tomorrow, day after, pray Tesla doesn't alter the deal any further.
What you choose depends on your budget, willingness to pay and your risk preferences.
Game theory makes me believe the following to be true:
1.) Performance Model 3 has 100% shot at delivery at end of year and will have the best chance as time goes on. Tesla might even cut off AWD and say something like "Due to demand, we are focusing only on P production for the rest of the year".
2.) AWD buyers will be suggested to be pushed to P and will be cut off from end of year delivery shortly. The current 2-4 month window provides some glimmer of hope but I see that estimate pushing to 3 months+ October 1st to signal the ship is sailed.
3.) RWD standing inventory will go from take one home today to be near zero as end of year approaches. RWD availability will then cease IF P demand will carry through the year.
The biggest unknowns I see that can alter my predictions are:
1 - Tesla is able to scale production up significantly from where they are now for Q4. Past performance leads me to doubt they will be successful here. I hope they succeed being an investor but as a car buyer, I wouldn't bank on it.
2 - Tesla would rather sell 2 RWD than 1 P. If so, it could be that P AND AWD get shut down and RWD is pushed in huge volume for Q4. I don't know anything about production ratios, production opportunity costs so pure conjecture here.
I hope this helps with people's decision making process.
In general, my second statement is true under normal market operating conditions. We are not under normal market operating conditions.
In reality, the $7,500 tax credit matters less for Tesla than it does for other auto. Reason being is the tax credit ends up being a smaller percentage of the overall vehicle price compared to a strip model Volt.
People go to great lengths however to get a discount, even if they have to spend more than the "discount". Even as an economist I make irrational decisions based on emotional appeals and not always from optimal fiscal decisions.
I have already read anecdotes of regret from people saying they wish they pulled the trigger earlier due to rising prices of Paint, AWD, etc. For every one person posting here, there's another 1000 (for argument sake) that is thinking the same way.
Those who hesitate over forgone conclusions like they are getting a Model 3, while suffering from paralysis of analysis pay the most in the end the longer they wait.
They will pay the most in the end through
-Choice of desired motor levels are reduced to stock on hand.
-Tesla changing prices to match demand through end of 2018.
-Tesla eliminating choices to maximize production.
-Tesla focus on out the factory and in customers hands with the maximum output which makes delivery more inconsistent.
-Stress on if delivery will happen before 1/1/2019.
-Interest rates are on the rise and are CERTAIN to rise. FOMC already stated this is their intention. Cost of borrowing goes up.
-Not having a Model 3 AT ALL by end of 2018 due to a flux of people realizing what I am saying now over Thanksgiving dinner and going through a mad rush.
No matter what motor you desire, if you haven't heard yet, you better do it like YESTERDAY. If you are going to wait til tomorrow, day after, pray Tesla doesn't alter the deal any further.
What you choose depends on your budget, willingness to pay and your risk preferences.
Game theory makes me believe the following to be true:
1.) Performance Model 3 has 100% shot at delivery at end of year and will have the best chance as time goes on. Tesla might even cut off AWD and say something like "Due to demand, we are focusing only on P production for the rest of the year".
2.) AWD buyers will be suggested to be pushed to P and will be cut off from end of year delivery shortly. The current 2-4 month window provides some glimmer of hope but I see that estimate pushing to 3 months+ October 1st to signal the ship is sailed.
3.) RWD standing inventory will go from take one home today to be near zero as end of year approaches. RWD availability will then cease IF P demand will carry through the year.
The biggest unknowns I see that can alter my predictions are:
1 - Tesla is able to scale production up significantly from where they are now for Q4. Past performance leads me to doubt they will be successful here. I hope they succeed being an investor but as a car buyer, I wouldn't bank on it.
2 - Tesla would rather sell 2 RWD than 1 P. If so, it could be that P AND AWD get shut down and RWD is pushed in huge volume for Q4. I don't know anything about production ratios, production opportunity costs so pure conjecture here.
I hope this helps with people's decision making process.
