Q4 2015 Earnings prediction

[HiTech]

Thanks. Regarding Revenue and EPS, Wall-street only cares about NON-GAAP.

So, for example 17400 deliveries at $100k ASP is $1.74B revenue plus maybe $100M in Service dept

for EPS, I think consensus is around $0.10

Okay, makes sense. In that case, though my figures aren't as detailed, here are my revised estimates/expectations:
Q4 2015: GAAP EPS = -$0.82 (loss); Non-GAAP EPS = $0.32 (gain) ........(lots of assumptions used here, due to lack of visibility in certain figures) > Let's see how close I come.

 

[Stretch2727]

Yes, when they calculate their FCF they didn't include the leasing deferred revenue in it (actually the numbers don't quite match with 0 deferred revenue either, seems like they take the lease revenue of that quarter in their FCF to me).

If the leasing revenue cannot be included in the FCF, then it would even be quite a challenge for them to be FCF positive in 2016 Q1. My rough calculation is under the assumption that opex and capex together are cut by 50% compared to Q3 2015, which is about 400m. 12k S with ASP 95k (some 2015 year end referral/discount sliding in, plus X drawing away some high end buyers) and 5k X with ASP 135k. Service and Energy assume to be 10% of automotive revenue. Overall GM 23% (X is getting bigger share but GM on X is still not optimized, thus the lower overall GM). Then I got about 400m too. Quite close and the delivery numbers are a tall order.

Good thread here.

One comment I believe Elon said they would be "Operating" free cash flow positive in Q1 16. This basically means the building and selling of cars is starting to allow them to fund the capital expenditures. Overall CF will still be negative with the capital investments.

This is still a good sign as the need for future raising of capital will be minimized.

Correct me if I am wrong but I am pretty sure this is what he said on the Nov. call.

 

[AudubonB]

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[mmd]

IMO, only the automotive revenue should be scaled up by 17400/11603, not the non-auto revenue. That was $1.16B for 11603 cars in Q3. So, $99,970 per car sold. If you do an exact calculation ( with these assumptions, of course), for Q4, we get:
17192 Model S * $100k model s non-gaap asp + 208 Model X * $144k = $1,748 M

This is just crazy close to the actual number! Tesla reported $1, 747.024 M in non-gaap revenue.