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Radar Calibration after rain on 2015 MS85D

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Ok, so spent a good bit of time through some torrential downpours of rain a few days ago and car didn't complain until towards the end of the day when it was more off and on minor rain. But I got a green error on the IC about the Autopilot features being unavailable and that they might come back on the next drive. I was hoping this was like my Prius and somehow it was just the torrential rain blocking the radar. But it seemed suspicious since it did NOT complain during the rain(though I wasn't using it), but did complain later when it didn't seem like there was enough rain to be a problem...

Service mode lists a radar calibration complaint.

But it's now been a couple days without rain and it's still not back. I've lost auto headlights, cruise, autopilot... It's a 15 MS85D AP1, MCU1.
I drove through a couple streams across road. Nothing that *seemed* very deep, but given the angles that the front nose occasionally scrapes at, it's certainly possible that at some point at least part of the radar sensor got submerged for a moment.

Also, just for kicks, it was only a couple days before this that I had the car aligned. But the car never complained and AP was working fine and I'd driven it hundreds of miles. So I'm assuming this has nothing to do with it.

From what I've searched, it seems that with this error people have had fixes ranging from reboots, calibrations either by Tesla or themselves, possibly the connector or the sensor itself replaced.

I've done all the reboots including changing wheel size. After a couple power offs I have seen the error not show up immediately, but within 30 seconds before I'm even driving the error is back on.
I've also tried doing the guesstimate calibration from the unofficial Tesla service manual and removed the gasket as recommended. Note that I didn't actually adjust the alignment, as near as I can VERY vaguely tell, it seems like it's probably roughly right, but it's hard to tell since the sensor itself flexes around in it's plastic mount and the front fascia moves around as well...

So... Any likely opinions? My first thought would be checking the connector... Has anyone managed to get the sensor loose/connector off without removing the front bumper? Cause that looks like a pretty decent pain...

Or any other options for getting a better idea of whether the sensor is bad, the connector is bad, or it's really just alignment?

Thanks!
 
I had this happen to me twice, once when power washing my car, the other time going through a big puddle. Only fix was to realign radar. On the second go of it, they realized the radar was touching the bumper when the bumper was installed, so they shimmed a bit of the bumper off and it hasn't been an issue since. Maybe something to look into.

Edit: reread and realized you have a pre facelift vehicle so that likely isn't the issue, but i'll leave this up in case other 2016.5 and above owners experience this. Was definitely a strange one