My reservation is from about 20 minutes before the start of the reveal and I live in Colorado. I expect to pay about $40k (far from fully optioned) so I estimate my place to be middling in the pack and unlikely to be earlier than 100k
My understanding mirrors your own, that the more expensive cars will tend to be built first.
I believe(strictly opinion) cars with the most profit margin will be first which means Autopilot and FSD. Software packages are basically straight margin outside of developments costs. AWD is another motor which not only adds steps to the build process, it has a higher cost in materials.