Richard Branson says that “every car on the road will be electric” in 15 years

[zenmaster]

Richard Branson says in 15 years 'every car on the road will be electric'

"In 2015, electric cars accounted for just 0.1 per cent of the total number of cars on the road across the world, according to the International Energy Agency.

However, the Electric Vehicles Initiative has set a goal of putting 20 million electric cars on the road by 2020 – which would give a global market share of around 1.7 per cent.

Earlier this year, a report by Bloomberg said electric cars will be cheaper than conventional ones by 2022, with the declining cost in batteries a major factor in pushing prices down.

It projected that sales of electric cars will hit 41 million, or a third of the market by 2040 – almost 90 times the equivalent figure for 2015.

The growth of the electric cars could also have a dramatic effect on oil, according to the report, by displacing oil demand of 2 million barrels a day as early as 2023.

Sir Richard has suggested government policy could enable the growth in electric cars. “If governments set the ground rules,” he said, “and for instance said, ‘more than 50 per cent of cars must be battery-driven in 10 years and 100 per cent in 15 years,’ we could make that happen.”

 

[vinnie97]

There's a wide delta between "will" and "could."

 

[zenmaster]

There's a wide delta between "will" and "could."

I thought the same thing but that's how they wanted the headline to read. Odd.

 

[vinnie97]

What's it called, clickbait? He definitely made a conditional statement, but oil as a mainstay fuel for transport probably/certainly has more longevity than that...unfortunately.

 

[zenmaster]

Turns out he did actually tell CNN all cars should be electric in 15 years:
Richard Branson: All cars will be electric by 2030 - CNN.com

 

[neroden]

Richard Branson is a smart man. I think it'll take longer than that due to holdouts, but we'll probably see 95% electric by then.

 

[pmadflyer]

I'd love for this to come to fruition, but the charging problem is unsolved, at this time. If you live in a place with a reserved spot, you have options. Otherwise, imagine having to install a charger for every spot in the open expanse of pavement. It is not an unsolvable problem, but it requires that range and charge rate get to a point where you can make a quik stop on the commute to charge up, or at home. This reduces the number of high speed chargers required for a parking lot. Maybe the cars can drive and charge up one after another while the owners sleep.

 

[zenmaster]

I'd love for this to come to fruition, but the charging problem is unsolved, at this time. If you live in a place with a reserved spot, you have options. Otherwise, imagine having to install a charger for every spot in the open expanse of pavement. It is not an unsolvable problem, but it requires that range and charge rate get to a point where you can make a quik stop on the commute to charge up, or at home. This reduces the number of high speed chargers required for a parking lot. Maybe the cars can drive and charge up one after another while the owners sleep.

Branson is suggesting that Forumla E will somehow have a huge impact on battery tech advancement:
He said "What we're doing with these race cars is pushing the technology forward so that road cars one day will be able to go hundreds of miles without having to recharge their batteries."

But if you look at the Formula E rules, the manufacturers aren't allowed to provide any battery changes whatsoever to these cars. They are allowed to build the electric motor, inverter, gearbox and cooling system. So if you aren't allowed to develop new battery tech in Formula E, how does it push the tech forward so that you'd get hundreds of miles w/out recharge?

 

[ecarfan]

Branson is being wildly optimistic.I think in 15 years EVs could possibly be a majority of new cars sold in the North America, Western Europe, and possibly most of the other regions where Tesla currently sells into. But it will be at least 40 years before they are the clear majority of all cars being driven in those parts of the world. And then that leaves the rest of the world to convert...

 

[trils0n]

I'd say there is a strong chance all new cars sold in the US are electric in 15 years. I think it will happen sooner, but lets assume 15 years for all new cars to be electric. Since the average car in the US is currently 11 years old (which is the oldest average fleet age has been in the US), we could guess that after 15 years, when no more gas cars are sold, it would take 11 or so years for the existing gas car fleet to be mostly phased out. So, about 26 years.

This assumes no accelerated replacement of gas cars with cheap EVs, no accelerated removal of gas cars due to emission requirements, and a whole host of other factors.

 

[zenmaster]

Potential EV replacement of ICEV is effectively a technological issue, primarily one dependent on sufficient battery chemistry and design advancements. Presumably it's easy to determine the battery tech capability required before it'd make no sense to produce ICE vehicles. However, besides media hype and wishful thinking, what exactly makes it so obvious that science can provide all necessary advancements within 15 years (or sooner)? At this point, what has been revealed by our current lines of research (which is the only info we have to go by on the subject) that makes it a likely scenario?

 

[trils0n]

ICE vehicles are a mature technology. The cost has been reduced iteration over iteration for decades. But new ICE vehicles will need to comply with increasingly more stringent environmental regulations that will raise their cost. Most think it likely that ICE vehicles will only get more expensive from this point on.

EVs are on a near opposite trajectory. Their technology is fairly new and current trends are seeing dramatic cost reductions in not just batteries, but motors, power electronics, etc. as scale increases and new design iterations are engineered. Cost parity between EV and ICE vehicles will occur at increasingly cheaper price points. Model S is comparable to similar luxury cars in performance (exceeds in many ways) and costs similar to other luxury vehicles. Model 3 will bring this cost parity down to entry level luxury vehicles. At some point, the difference in performance will favor EVs, and EVs will be cheaper. There will simply be no reason to buy an ICE vehicle, as EVs will be cheaper to buy, cheaper to operate, and perform better.

 

[Alketi]

I would assume Branson meant every "NEW" car will be electric, which is certainly achievable in 15 years. The Model 3, if delivered as advertised, will be an incredible catalyst, not to mention the other EVs slated for delivery in 2018-2020. Momentum will pick up very quickly. And by the 2022 timeframe we should have $25K 200 mile EVs with better performance and warranties than their ICE counterparts. It'll be game over by that point.

But, for every car on the road to be electric by 2030 means that every (still) working ICE vehicle will need to be sent prematurely to the junkyard -- quite a different prediction, and unlikely IMO...

 

[zenmaster]

ICE vehicles are a mature technology. The cost has been reduced iteration over iteration for decades. But new ICE vehicles will need to comply with increasingly more stringent environmental regulations that will raise their cost. Most think it likely that ICE vehicles will only get more expensive from this point on.

EVs are on a near opposite trajectory. Their technology is fairly new and current trends are seeing dramatic cost reductions in not just batteries, but motors, power electronics, etc. as scale increases and new design iterations are engineered. Cost parity between EV and ICE vehicles will occur at increasingly cheaper price points. Model S is comparable to similar luxury cars in performance (exceeds in many ways) and costs similar to other luxury vehicles. Model 3 will bring this cost parity down to entry level luxury vehicles. At some point, the difference in performance will favor EVs, and EVs will be cheaper. There will simply be no reason to buy an ICE vehicle, as EVs will be cheaper to buy, cheaper to operate, and perform better.

Yes, this is all very obvious stuff. What is not obvious is the timeline trajectory. I don't see the obvious conclusion from any of that for 15 years based on the science, which is all that matters in the end.

 

[trils0n]

Yes, this is all very obvious stuff. What is not obvious is the timeline trajectory. I don't see the obvious conclusion from any of that for 15 years based on the science

I would suggest starting by looking at battery cost curves. Plenty of resources on the forums to get started. Cost parity is coming fast.

 

[zenmaster]

I would suggest starting by looking at battery cost curves. Plenty of resources on the forums to get started. Cost parity is coming fast.

I don't think you are quite getting it. Production cost can only take sales so far.Yes, the production costs are going down for batteries. Taking that bit into consideration, Bloomberg (link above) has EV production a little less than 30% in 15 years.

 

[WannabeOwner]

imagine having to install a charger for every spot in the open expanse of pavement

We seem to have retro-fitted Cable (and before that Gas / Electricity / Mains-Drains) to every house in the street - I wonder what the "profit" is per car-charger street spot? If that is high enough then might be enough to encourage installation. I think the reticence will be that some new-tech could supersede the need for electricity at each parking spot.

Induction charging plates in a straight-line along the road under each parking-bay should do the trick, presumably easier to install / maintain than bollards with cables & plugs? Perhaps the real problem is that "requirement" will come car-by-car, rather than being able to sell it to a whole street at a time

(Ecotricity [which has charging points, over here in UK, in car parks and highway rest stops] have just moved from "free" to "pay-per-use". Its 5 GBP (US$ 6.50) for 20 minutes (I think their infrastructure is 30-50 AMPS) ... dunno if the market will bear that, sounds like a stonking profit to me! but if that is sustainable, given that installing a suitable charge-point in a garage has an associated cost, maybe road-charging infrastructure is doable)

Model 3 will bring this cost parity down to entry level luxury vehicles

For any potential buyer looking at a total-cost-of-ownership I expect the Model 3 will compare to less luxurious models, with a lower sticker-price but higher running-cost. Not sure to what extent An Average Human is persuaded by that calculation though ...

My prediction is that the uptake of BEVs, and indeed all attempts to be more Eco, will be foiled by falling crude oil prices. As we move to increasing amounts of renewables oil imports will reduce, and generate a price war - particularly if Oil States decide that they have more supply than the world will use before being 99% weaned off oil. If BEV purchases take off in a big way then fuel usage may change too - electricity could, increasingly, be generated from something unrelated to Oil / Gas - that too will drive down demand / price for Crude Oil. Falling oil price will make it harder for TCoO sums to win out, and Oil / Car Lobby on government will continue to force through watering-down of incentives to actually move to lower emission, and increasingly renewable, fuels. Shame ... our children's children will say "You knew there was a problem and you did nothing about it"

Hmmm ... I'll also argue that Black-is-White. When is Peak Oil? At, say, 5% exponential growth (debatable if we reduce oil dependence, but emerging economies are not showing much sign of that) we will use up the second-half at a very alarming rate, we may only have 20 years, or so, to get the transition made. That may well mean that Demand exceeding Supply will adjust the price for Crude Oil...