Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Tanks and other equipment on a train in Belarus

Hard to tell for sure from the quality of the video, but they look like T-72s without ERA. That would be very old, unmodernized T-72s.

Edit, failed to read the blurb describing the video. I guess they are T-80s. The two look similar, the main noticeable difference is the spacing of the road wheels. Hard to tell in a blurry video.

ERA is Explosive, Reactive Armor. They are those blocks on the outside of Russian tanks. They help the tank survive hits by exploding on contact and directing the energy of the weapon outward. The US used it with the old M-60, but discontinued it when the M-1 Abrams was introduced. According to the blogger Murz on wartranslated, Russia is out of ERA and most of the tanks deployed now lack it. Without ERA tanks are more vulnerable to lighter caliber AT weapons.

The Russians have gotten Belarus to do some training for them and some Russian mobiks have been sent to Belarus to be trained by their instructors. It is possible these tanks are just being sent to Belarus to equip a new or reconstituted tank formation the Russians are trying to raise. It doesn't mean that unit is going to operate from Belarus.

It is scary, but only out of context. This psy op is going on for months now, tying in some UA force at Belorussian border. They could not even fully encircle Kyiv with their elite forces, they won't be able now too. Just encircling Kyiv you'd need >300k troops that will have to establish two perimeters: one encircling, and the other, fighting back from the rest of UA.
Remember the 40mi long convoy that needed a convoy?

If the Russians tried another grab for Kyiv it would probably end in a bigger disaster than the last attempt. The average quality of their equipment has degraded, they are low on ammunition, and the quality of their troops are vastly lower than in February. Conscripts trained over a couple of months with a shortage of instructors and Russia's normal slap dash training regime are going to be poorer quality than their regular army units from before the war who have at least some career people in them.

This's how Zelesnkiy is welcomed in US​


Notice he flew in on one of the planes used by the US President. No way Russia will try to shoot that down.

The jets used by the president almost all the time are a derivative of the 747. This is a plane out of the US executive fleet, but it's a 737 derivative. A smaller plane. The 737s are usually used by other members of the executive branch like the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, etc. when traveling on state business. Since 9/11 the Speaker of the House also flies by one of these jets. Sometimes other Congress members will fly in one of these planes if they are on some kind of Congressional mission.

It's still an honor for a foreign head of state to be transported in a US executive fleet jet. I don't recall that ever happening before.

I have a friend who was in the maintenance unit that supported the Marine part of the executive fleet. The Marine part of the fleet are helicopters and some small passenger jets. She got to fly on those planes a few times, though not with members of the civilian government on board.
 
It is scary, but only out of context. This psy op is going on for months now, tying in some UA force at Belorussian border. They could not even fully encircle Kyiv with their elite forces, they won't be able now too. Just encircling Kyiv you'd need >300k troops that will have to establish two perimeters: one encircling, and the other, fighting back from the rest of UA.
Remember the 40mi long convoy that needed a convoy?
1. The UKR forces being tied down are not the same cadre as being used for active fronts. So there is not much detriment to the active fronts from all this Russian manoeuvring in Belorus. The aim is that the UKR border forces can slow/stop any RF/Belorus push to buy enough time for the UKR operational reserve to reorientate itself.

2. However that becomes more problematic if UKR tries to push significantly further into the NE quadrant. It might not stop them doing so - or trying to do so - but it does open up a disproprortionate amount of flank area that then needs a lot of second or third tier cadre to defend. Which factor may - or may not - influence UKR selection of next pase objectives.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
1. The UKR forces being tied down are not the same cadre as being used for active fronts. So there is not much detriment to the active fronts from all this Russian manoeuvring in Belorus. The aim is that the UKR border forces can slow/stop any RF/Belorus push to buy enough time for the UKR operational reserve to reorientate itself.

2. However that becomes more problematic if UKR tries to push significantly further into the NE quadrant. It might not stop them doing so - or trying to do so - but it does open up a disproprortionate amount of flank area that then needs a lot of second or third tier cadre to defend. Which factor may - or may not - influence UKR selection of next pase objectives.

The Russians are not going to be ready for a major move in the north for at least a few months. To try another invasion is going to require a big built up of material north of the Ukraine border and while the Russians have been moving some gear into Belarus, it's nowhere near enough to attempt another invasion. Ukraine will have ample warning if the Russians try to make another move.

On the other hand on the active fronts the Ukrainians could be building up forces for a big move hiding it without the normal flow of material at the front. The Ukrainians built up a large enough force to take back the Kharkhiv oblast and nobody really saw it until they launched.

I expect the Ukrainians will launch their next offensive before Russia can. If the Russians end up falling apart under Ukrainian pressure the Russians may need to divert the troops they are gathering for some other operation into that fray to try and stop the bleeding, which would completely blow up any chances they have to launch a winter offensive.

From reading the Murz translation along with other things I'm seeing, I suspect the Russians overestimate the ability of their defensive troops to hold the Ukrainians when Ukraine makes its next move. When they find out their defenses aren't holding, they will probably end up throwing any warm body available into the breach to try and stop Ukraine. Otherwise they will risk being in a terrible strategic situation come spring. If the Ukrainians can get into HIMARS range of the Kerch Bridge and Neptune range of the Azoz Sea, Russia's supply situation in the south is going to become very precarious. They can't risk that, so they will have to divert troops currently in the north to shore up the situation in the south.
 
More Russian stuff blowing up and burning
A Siberian gas pipeline to Europe through Ukraine had a large explosion in Russia. Russia said there was no effect on natural gas exports.

Also Saw a short article on an Israeli to Cyprus pipeline for natural gas to be processed in Cyprus and then exported to Europe as they also have gas reserves of their own they can export.
Cyprus weighing gas pipeline with Israel Decision comes as the island nation announces 'significant' new gas discovery which could boost its energy ambitions but stir tensions with Ankara
 
Last edited:
Zelensky's address to Congress was excellent. Nancy Pelosi made one mistake introducing him as the president of "The Ukraine".

Apparently Biden and Zelensky speak very frequently. My partner pointed out that Zelensky is the age Bo was when he died. I think Joe Biden sees Zelensky as a protege. I think they are forming a bond as close as Roosevelt and Churchill (though with some different dynamics, the UK and US were closer to equal peers and Ukraine is a much smaller power than the US).
 
Putler's speech yesterday:
- army will have everything it asks for
- strenght raised 1 mil -> 1.5mil
- conscription age raised to 30 from 27
- conscripts can be sent to war voluntarily, if they want

So he is going all-in. Doubt it will make much difference, might prolong the war. Will make even harder for Russia to ever recover from this crap.

We all know how voluntary russian voluntary really is. So he will just keep throwing more bodies into their death.

And he will establish a new military stronghold in Karelia and raising the amount of troops at the Finnish border, reaction to Nato.
 

That is what is being sent. What they don't say is how many more HIMAR rounds
Precision aerial munitions ? What's that, lots of rumors about precision bomb kits for Ukraine but what exactly?

The vehicles would enable another armored brigade. The 37 MRAP vehicles seems a bit light to me, a 0 would have made more sense. Then you have to fuel them I guess.
 
Last edited:
Just a general statement of thanks to the folks who post on this thread. I find this a great distillation of the important insights on current events in the Ukraine invasion.
Thanks go out to all posters here, not limited to but in particular to @wdolson. I thought I knew a thing or two about WWII and war today but I have been led to understand otherwise... wow. Thank you guys for a lot of depth of insight.
I have little to contribute here information-wise so I will go back to lurking and reading. Please know everyone that your work on your posts here is not in vain.
 
Just a general statement of thanks to the folks who post on this thread. I find this a great distillation of the important insights on current events in the Ukraine invasion.
Thanks go out to all posters here, not limited to but in particular to @wdolson. I thought I knew a thing or two about WWII and war today but I have been led to understand otherwise... wow. Thank you guys for a lot of depth of insight.
I have little to contribute here information-wise so I will go back to lurking and reading. Please know everyone that your work on your posts here is not in vain.
+1 with added thanks to the Europeans who gently correct (our) US-centric blind spots @petit_bateau and @SwedishAdvocate in particular, but amongst many others.
 

Well others beat me too it. The real news was the artillery component. They don't answer...where is it from?
 

Well others beat me too it. The real news was the artillery component. They don't answer...where is it from?
I would assume it's mostly from Poland, Romania, Estonia, Czech Republic, and other former East bloc countries.
 
  • Like
Reactions: unk45 and Skipdd
Putler's speech yesterday:
- army will have everything it asks for
- strenght raised 1 mil -> 1.5mil
- conscription age raised to 30 from 27
- conscripts can be sent to war voluntarily, if they want

So he is going all-in. Doubt it will make much difference, might prolong the war. Will make even harder for Russia to ever recover from this crap.

We all know how voluntary russian voluntary really is. So he will just keep throwing more bodies into their death.

And he will establish a new military stronghold in Karelia and raising the amount of troops at the Finnish border, reaction to Nato.

Army will get all it wants? Even if Russia can't manufacture what they want? Ultimately that's a hollow promise.

It does show Russia is going to be trying to convert to a wartime economy. They have a lot of challenges to get there.

The USA announced a new arms package , attention was paid to the patriot announcement. To me the real news always the huge supply of old Soviet ammo, 50k tank wheels, 70k 152mm and 120mm artillery rounds and 50k grad rockets.

Why not earlier? Where did we get these? Iraq? Poland and other old eastern block?

The US probably didn't have them earlier. There are a lot of countries around the world that use Russian/ex-Soviet weapons. Some of them aren't really in Russia's sphere of influence anymore.

I wrote the White House when the ammunition shortage started suggesting the US comb through the international arms dealer houses and countries with Russian equipment who aren't cozy with Putin any longer and see if the US can buy up ammunition. I don't hold any illusion that they acted on my suggestion. Though it may have been one of many similar suggestions.

The WSJ talked about the UK seeking ex-Soviet weapons to give to Ukraine
U.K. Is Shopping for Old Soviet Military Gear to Give Ukraine

I'm sure it's not from any eastern European countries. They would not sell ammunition to the US just to turn around and give it to Ukraine. If those countries were concerned about drawing down their own supplies, the US might step in with a replacement guarantee, but those countries would want the positive publicity of giving gifts to Ukraine.

I suspect the donor country in this case could be Iraq which is transitioning to US made weapons, or it could be India which is inching away from Russia over this war. Modi would not want to publicly give Ukraine arms because they are trying to remain neutral, so a behind the scenes deal with the US could jave been brokered.

Another possibility is the US cleaned out the stocks of every arms dealer who would do business with them. The international arms dealer world can be a murky world. It's sort of a gray market where small countries buy arms without making alliances with any of the large powers.

Just a general statement of thanks to the folks who post on this thread. I find this a great distillation of the important insights on current events in the Ukraine invasion.
Thanks go out to all posters here, not limited to but in particular to @wdolson. I thought I knew a thing or two about WWII and war today but I have been led to understand otherwise... wow. Thank you guys for a lot of depth of insight.
I have little to contribute here information-wise so I will go back to lurking and reading. Please know everyone that your work on your posts here is not in vain.

Your welcome. 😊

Most of the people in my life groan when I start banging on about WW II. I know some of my teachers back in elementary school were concerned about my interest. They didn't understand that it was a history interest and I wasn't going to go out and buy an arsenal as soon as I was old enough. These days I probably would have been flagged as a potential school shooter. I've never owned a gun (my partner has a few of her own though).

I second what @CatB said about our European contributors too.