You can be certain that US govt. officials have been looking anywhere and everywhere for suitable arms/munitions to supply Ukraine. Regardless if anyone actually read your letter. Cyprus has a substantial inventory Soviet era weaponry that they would undoubtedly like to replace with more modern NATO spec equipment. Ditto with Poland and pretty much all of the former East bloc nations. I'd be surprised if much of anything is coming from Iraq, though.Army will get all it wants? Even if Russia can't manufacture what they want? Ultimately that's a hollow promise.
It does show Russia is going to be trying to convert to a wartime economy. They have a lot of challenges to get there.
The US probably didn't have them earlier. There are a lot of countries around the world that use Russian/ex-Soviet weapons. Some of them aren't really in Russia's sphere of influence anymore.
I wrote the White House when the ammunition shortage started suggesting the US comb through the international arms dealer houses and countries with Russian equipment who aren't cozy with Putin any longer and see if the US can buy up ammunition. I don't hold any illusion that they acted on my suggestion. Though it may have been one of many similar suggestions.
The WSJ talked about the UK seeking ex-Soviet weapons to give to Ukraine
U.K. Is Shopping for Old Soviet Military Gear to Give Ukraine
I'm sure it's not from any eastern European countries. They would not sell ammunition to the US just to turn around and give it to Ukraine. If those countries were concerned about drawing down their own supplies, the US might step in with a replacement guarantee, but those countries would want the positive publicity of giving gifts to Ukraine.
I suspect the donor country in this case could be Iraq which is transitioning to US made weapons, or it could be India which is inching away from Russia over this war. Modi would not want to publicly give Ukraine arms because they are trying to remain neutral, so a behind the scenes deal with the US could jave been brokered.
Another possibility is the US cleaned out the stocks of every arms dealer who would do business with them. The international arms dealer world can be a murky world. It's sort of a gray market where small countries buy arms without making alliances with any of the large powers.
Your welcome.
Most of the people in my life groan when I start banging on about WW II. I know some of my teachers back in elementary school were concerned about my interest. They didn't understand that it was a history interest and I wasn't going to go out and buy an arsenal as soon as I was old enough. These days I probably would have been flagged as a potential school shooter. I've never owned a gun (my partner has a few of her own though).
I second what @CatB said about our European contributors too.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
We moved or destroyed a vast quantity of Iraq munitions so that they would not be used to build IEDs. That was my feeling on Iraq.
India needs their ammo as a war with Pakistan could happen at any time- they have not yet transitioned. I also feel eastern european nations would have already moved stocks.
That leaves Egypt...that I could see...I bet they still had huge stocks. Syria- Nope; Ethiopia- I don't think enough to matter. Libya? Unlikely. It is a vast stockpile. I assume that it was already on it's way to Ukraine, it will take weeks to get it distributed. So, maybe this happened weeks ago and just announced.
India needs their ammo as a war with Pakistan could happen at any time- they have not yet transitioned. I also feel eastern european nations would have already moved stocks.
That leaves Egypt...that I could see...I bet they still had huge stocks. Syria- Nope; Ethiopia- I don't think enough to matter. Libya? Unlikely. It is a vast stockpile. I assume that it was already on it's way to Ukraine, it will take weeks to get it distributed. So, maybe this happened weeks ago and just announced.
Egypt is a possibility. Jordan another. Many African countries have Soviet armaments. I still suspect the lion's share is coming from Eastern Europe. Poland probably chief among them. I wonder what Germany did with theirs after reunification.
I just think that Poland would have moved theirs back in March. I assume, based on Bidens comments, that the materials are already in Ukraine.
It looks like much of the remnants of East Germay's armaments have found/are finding their way to Ukraine:
It could be Egypt. Egypt has been transitioning to US/NATO weapons. This ammunition could be stuff that's been on the international arms market and the US just cleaned out the supply.
Germany sold a lot of their East German equipment. Mostly to other NATO countries. Some of it was offloaded on the cheap. I think Poland's MiGs were sold for 1 Euro each.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Putin calls for "diplomatic solution" to end "war." Not "special military operation."
www.yahoo.com
Putin refers to Ukraine invasion as ‘war’ for first time publicly and calls for ‘diplomatic solution’
‘All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track’
Putin calls for "diplomatic solution" to end "war." Not "special military operation."
Putin refers to Ukraine invasion as ‘war’ for first time publicly and calls for ‘diplomatic solution’
‘All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track’
Maybe Putin's allies in the US reported that after Zelensky's speech getting Congress to do Putin's bidding is not going to happen. The crazy caucus may have thought they could bully the rest of the Republicans into doing their bidding.
It is a small concession from Putin, but it doesn't change anything now. Ukraine is pretty firm on Russia leaving all Ukrainian territory before there can be any peace. If Zelensky tried to make peace now and even discussed Russia keeping any of Ukraine, he would be out of office before he finished the suggestion.
Russia has to come to terms with the fact they lost this war before there can be any peace. They aren't willing to admit it yet but there is no path to Russia holding on to any part of Ukraine at this point. If NATO abandoned them that might happen, but that isn't going to happen anytime soon. If a Putin ally wins the 2024 US presidential election then maybe the US would pull support, but until then the US is completely behind Ukraine. Russia's war machine will be running on fumes by 2024, if they are still in Ukraine at all.
Putin has been cancelling all of his big public appearances lately. Including his annual hockey game, press conference, and now the annual state of the nation address. It may be that his health is failing. If we're lucky, he'll be out of the picture by 2024.
Would be nice if he faded away quickly in some fashion such as that, but so far no reliable intelligence that shows his health is failing.
Would argue it is more likely things are getting worse internally in Russia as today the Kremlin censored Russian state-controlled media from publishing any information about mobilization in the country.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
It makes sense to me that if state media is censored, so should be the chief talking head.
But humor aside, I get the impression that Russia still has widespread private media outlets.
Be careful what you wish for. Prigozhin is the most likely guy to replace Putin at this point and he will likely start lobbing nukes at everyone. He's a super warhawk who thinks Putin has been too easy on Ukraine.
Putin is very bad, but he has some restraint.
As for what's going on in Russia, I read in the wartranslated podcast transcript from yesterday that Russia has seen a huge spike in railway sabotage in the last couple of weeks. We've also seen a lot of mysterious industrial fires lately too. All of the fires could be industrial accidents. The government is probably pushing industry to produce more and the slap dash way the Russians can do things, that can lead to more accidents.
Putin may have canceled all his public appearances because he's having emergency meetings about the internal problems happening in Russia. Dictators have a very low tolerance for rebellion.
Private media outlets within Russia or outside?
The few remaining Russian independent/private media outlets pre-full-scale war fled the country and setup shop elsewhere for reasons including it being illegal to call it a war. Strange that Putin in the last day or two called it a war for the first time.
I read "Russian state-controlled media outlets" as being official state media but also "private" non-independent media outlets (that is to say can only report what the Kremlin permits).
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I'm really not super concerned that Putin leaving the political scene in Russia will be a problem. I don't think that a more malign man coming to power was much of a concern for Col. Stauffenberg and the other architects behind operation Valkyrie, either. Even if
Prigozhin is Putin's successor (very unlikely, imo), I doubt he's actually as suicidal as his bluster. One way or another, we'll learn the outcome of succession in the not too distant future.
After Putin – What?
Like all humans, Putin will inevitably expire someday. When that day arrives, it's uncertain what the future of Russia will be: Will it necessarily collapse? Or will Putin’s successor turn to the West and engage the country in reforms and modernization? Or has Putin already ensured that whoever...
thebulletin.org
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The simplest is to trash the control boxes. Russian railroads have control boxes on posts everywhere. The electronics in them are all imported from Europe and they can't get more of them. Destroy enough of those and the Russian railroads may grind to a halt. If they don't grind to a halt, it will require all their railroad maintenance people being out there to manually operate the switches on the tracks. If they are going that, they can't be doing their regular job which is keeping maintaining the network.
Back in March a bunch of Belarusian rail workers damaged these boxes in Belarus and it pretty much shut down Russian supply movement into northern Ukraine for a while.
Russians are generally terrible at maintenance, but one thing they do maintain is their rail network and there is a legion of people doing this job year round. Their economy is more dependent on rail than most countries. Take out the rail network and Russia grinds to a halt very quickly.
Another trick to damage a railroad is to remove the fasteners holding the rail to the sleeper on the outside of a curve. As the train goes around the curve, the track will give way and the train will derail.
Russia is also very dependent on cassette bearing made in Sweden and the US for all their rail cars and engines. Since the war began it's estimated about 20% of their rail assets are sidelined because of bearing failures. The bearings use a special steel alloy that China can't make, so they are stuck.
I'm really not super concerned that Putin leaving the political scene in Russia will be a problem. I don't think that a more malign man coming to power was much of a concern for Col. Stauffenberg and the other architects behind operation Valkyrie, either. Even if
Prigozhin is Putin's successor (very unlikely, imo), I doubt he's actually as suicidal as his bluster. One way or another, we'll learn the outcome of succession in the not too distant future.
After Putin – What?
Like all humans, Putin will inevitably expire someday. When that day arrives, it's uncertain what the future of Russia will be: Will it necessarily collapse? Or will Putin’s successor turn to the West and engage the country in reforms and modernization? Or has Putin already ensured that whoever...
The problem is we won't know for sure if someone like Prigozhin, or whoever replaces Putin has enough restraint or not. From all I've read Putin has had to deal with a pack of warhawks who think the only reason Russia hasn't won this war is because they haven't drafted every male who can hold a gun (except them of course) and Russia hasn't used nuclear weapons. I think it's very likely one of these warhawks will take power if Putin is gone. If Putin is removed in a coup, it will almost certainly be one of the warhawks who replace him.
Putin has been on the world stage for 20 years. At this point he has some idea what the world will tolerate and what it won't. He's only made one really serious miscalculation in his international dealing, and that was invading Ukraine. If Ukraine had collapsed as he believed it would, the west would have been left fuming about his territorial grab, but pretty much helpless to do anything about it.
The FSB was telling him that their agents in Ukraine had undermined the government so badly it would collapse when Russia invaded and there were a lot of Ukrainians who would rise up and join the Russian cause when they crossed the border. The FSB bribed a bunch of Ukrainians who pocketed the money and did nothing in return for the bribe. Their agents were also exaggerating their success in undermining Ukraine.
In any case, Putin normally knows what he can get away with and he skates right up to the line, but doesn't cross it. He's been a master of it all these years until he had one screw up. Most of the warhawks in Russia are fairly provincial in their view of the world. They have little experience of the world outside of Russia and both overestimate Russian abilities and underestimate what the rest of the world can do. They think countries like the US are weak kneed and will cave to pressure from a "real man" Russian.
It's the same thinking that led Japan to attack Pearl Harbor. They thought the US would cut and run if Japan sank their Pacific Fleet. One Japanese who knew American was Yammamoto who was commander of the Combined Fleet and who had been a military attache in the US and had toured US factories. He fully understood what the US was both materially capable of and what the US response would be to an attack. He was shouted down by the rest of the Japanese war planners. In response he said "I will run rampant across the Pacific for six months, and then the rest of the war will be a defensive one as the US pummels our outposts one by one." The Battle of Midway which was the turning point was June 4-7, 1942. Six months after Pearl Harbor.
Stauffenberg wasn't concerned about who would replace Hitler because Stauffenberg was part of a conspiracy who had a plan who was going to replace Hitler. There also wasn't anyone in the German government who thought Hitler was too constrained and holding back. By 1944 the Germans had drafted everyone of draft age and they even had Volkstrum units made up of teenagers who were too young for the draft in most countries and older men who would normally be considered too old. Germany also didn't have any weapons on the shelf they weren't using.
Russia has not fully mobilized and they have nuclear weapons on the shelf. If a Putin replacement decides to fully mobilize before using nuclear weapons, then we might have hope because full mobilization would probably lead to civil war. But if the new leader decided to nuke Ukraine back to the stone age, things could get very messy, and a full nuclear exchange would be possible as an eventual outcome, though I would expect NATO's first response to be conventional.
So on the munitions armament side of things the USA is indeed providing JDAM kits to Ukraine as it seemed in the DoD list earlier this week.
Here is the wiki for those that would like to get a brief understanding
Why is this important: there was a lot of attention and pressure on providing the large 500lb rocket for the mlrs system. It require launch from the tracked mlrs instead of the lighter HIMARs . They are subsonic and can be shot down, the USA did not make many.
Jdam is also a 500 lb solution and we produced in huge quantities. They are simple airplane launches and it glides 20 or more km to the target with high precision. They don’t have a rocket That is easy for an IR sensor to track.
The implication would be that we are giving Ukraine the ability to take out hardened targets and bridges and things like this. It also means Ukraine will likely lose airframes. Russia air defense is not impotent.
JDAM could be a complete game changer.
The other big news is that a very large aid package is coming from the USA. The JDAM and huge supply of heavy munitions was significant; this will apparently dwarf that . We’ll see
Here is the wiki for those that would like to get a brief understanding
Why is this important: there was a lot of attention and pressure on providing the large 500lb rocket for the mlrs system. It require launch from the tracked mlrs instead of the lighter HIMARs . They are subsonic and can be shot down, the USA did not make many.
Jdam is also a 500 lb solution and we produced in huge quantities. They are simple airplane launches and it glides 20 or more km to the target with high precision. They don’t have a rocket That is easy for an IR sensor to track.
The implication would be that we are giving Ukraine the ability to take out hardened targets and bridges and things like this. It also means Ukraine will likely lose airframes. Russia air defense is not impotent.
JDAM could be a complete game changer.
The other big news is that a very large aid package is coming from the USA. The JDAM and huge supply of heavy munitions was significant; this will apparently dwarf that . We’ll see
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3
11
169
Dmitri
@wartranslated
ambassador Antonov: U.S. is waging war against , risking direct clash. rhetoric is high, because U.S. is making decisions on $44 bn assistance, including $24 bn military assistance. There is going to be a series of very pleasant surprises.
4:49 AM · Dec 24, 2022
11
169
Dmitri
@wartranslated
ambassador Antonov: U.S. is waging war against , risking direct clash. rhetoric is high, because U.S. is making decisions on $44 bn assistance, including $24 bn military assistance. There is going to be a series of very pleasant surprises.
4:49 AM · Dec 24, 2022
petit_bateau
Active Member
There were also proposals to combine the JDAM guidance kit, mounted on the 250 lb bomb, and the M26 rocket motor to give a GLDSB with a 93-mile (150km) range. I am unsure if that is included in this package, either explicitly or implicitly. It would overcome a lot of the cost and availability constraints that exist with other weapons, and not require exposing air-launched vehicles. Have any of you more info on whether this is included ?So on the munitions armament side of things the USA is indeed providing JDAM kits to Ukraine as it seemed in the DoD list earlier this week.
Here is the wiki for those that would like to get a brief understanding
Why is this important: there was a lot of attention and pressure on providing the large 500lb rocket for the mlrs system. It require launch from the tracked mlrs instead of the lighter HIMARs . They are subsonic and can be shot down, the USA did not make many.
Jdam is also a 500 lb solution and we produced in huge quantities. They are simple airplane launches and it glides 20 or more km to the target with high precision. They don’t have a rocket That is easy for an IR sensor to track.
The implication would be that we are giving Ukraine the ability to take out hardened targets and bridges and things like this. It also means Ukraine will likely lose airframes. Russia air defense is not impotent.
JDAM could be a complete game changer.
The other big news is that a very large aid package is coming from the USA. The JDAM and huge supply of heavy munitions was significant; this will apparently dwarf that . We’ll see
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/RXQXQBR4WNKH5OQZRGC2O5VZTA.jpg)
Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.
www.reuters.com
Ahh, I didn’t bring that up... it is the most interesting question. I haven’t even bothered asking the locals, if it is done it can’t be discussed and either way they won’t really say much.There were also proposals to combine the JDAM guidance kit, mounted on the 250 lb bomb, and the M26 rocket motor to give a GLDSB with a 93-mile (150km) range. I am unsure if that is included in this package, either explicitly or implicitly. It would overcome a lot of the cost and availability constraints that exist with other weapons, and not require exposing air-launched vehicles. Have any of you more info on whether this is included ?
Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.
It would preserve airframes and that is a real issue. Also we could be seeing f16? Maybe possibly.
25 billion in new aid would mean expensive items, more patriots, f16s, abrams, very capable drones, air defense,etc
